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Australia's former prime minister Scott Morrison will "most likely" quit politics in the coming months.
Nine political editor Charles Croucher told Weekend Today he believed Morrison would step down sometime between the federal budget in May and the end of year, which could be a "disaster" for Liberal Leader Peter Dutton.
"This is speculation that makes sense, given he is a former prime minister and former prime ministers tend to move on from the chamber and not sit on the back bench," he said.
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His resignation would trigger a by-election in his Sydney seat of Cook, which he currently holds with a 12 per cent margin.
"One person who hasn't confirmed this is Scott Morrison. If and when this does happen, that will force a by-election in his seat of Cook which is a pretty safe Liberal seat," Croucher said.
"There is a ready-made candidate to replace him. It will likely be Mark Speakman.
"That gives a ready-made, well known, well-publicised and much needed new member of the party room for Peter Dutton and the Liberal Party. But that is months away rather than weeks."
It comes after the Liberal Party suffered a historic loss in the Victorian seat of Aston, last week – and after Labor claimed victory in the NSW state election.
Mary Doyle, secured the win against Liberal candidate Roshena Campbell, which marked the first time in over a century, since 1920, a sitting government had won a seat from the opposition in a federal by-election.
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Croucher said if the party lost another by-election, it would be a "disaster" for Dutton.
"Questions about his leadership would flare up," he said.
Morrison did not rule out leaving by the end of the year, and said he had not decided what to do next.
"I am focused on doing my job in my local electorate, helping the parliamentary party and supporting the leader," Morrison told The Sunday Age and The Sun-Herald.
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