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LONDON — Parts of England head to the polls Thursday, with local democracy — not to mention the reputations of Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives and Keir Starmer’s Labour — at stake.
Voters will choose councillors in more than 8,000 seats on 230 local councils across England Thursday.
As they prepare for damaging results amid poor national polling, Sunak — facing his first electoral test as PM — said Wednesday evening the elections were “going to be hard for us.”
Labour officials insist that 400 gains would be a good night, though experts reckon the opposition is likely on course to win more. In their efforts to manage expectations, the Conservative Party top brass has stuck rigidly to a warning by the Oxford academics Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher that 1,000 council seats could be lost — and that losing anything less than 500 seats would actually represent a good night.
Elsewhere, the Liberal Democrats hope to make gains in so-called ‘blue wall’ areas of southern England … the Greens look to continue their advance and gain majority control of Mid Suffolk council … and the right-wing Reform U.K. take aim at Brexit-backing target areas. Plus, don’t forget the huge-number of independent candidates — who often end up holding the balance of power in many councils.
Around 1,700 of the seats up for grabs will be counted overnight in the early hours of Friday morning, with the rest to be declared during the day Friday and into the weekend.
Here’s POLITICO’s hour-by-hour guide of how the elections will play out — and what to look out for.
Overnight, Thursday into Friday
1 a.m.: Labour will want to shore up Sunderland and come close to retaking Hartlepool after brutal 2019 losses and a by-election drubbing, but both are targets for Reform UK … Red/blue battleground Harlow has been pretty static in recent years but Labour made gains last time in Tory Basildon … Castle Point is ruled by independents with a Tory opposition.
2 a.m.: A decent Tory night means defending ground in Redditch, Sandwell, Thurrock and Worcester and holding off independents in Rochford … Lib Dems are watching Brentwood where they’re second to Tories, and Hull which they narrowly took from Labour in 2022 … Hart is a rare three-way split of Tories, Lib Dems and independents … The verdict of “Stevenage woman” appears in the Labour-held area.
3 a.m.: The first “all-out” councils declare … Three gains from independents would give Tories overall control of Boston or Peterborough, where Labour has had MP trouble … Lib Dems have a fiefdom in blue wall Eastleigh but want to strengthen their hold on Cotswold.
4 a.m.: Labour needs five gains to seize red-blue “tree massacre” battleground Plymouth … and wants to strengthen its control of Bassetlaw, which elected a Tory MP in 2019 … Tories have a fragile minority administration in Bolton, long red and where Labour needs gains … Lib Dems hope to seize blue wall Dacorum, where they launched their campaign.
5 a.m.: West Lindsey will test if Tories can hold back Lib Dems in Leave-voting areas … Lib Dems already have Bath & North East Somerset and fancy narrowly Tory Windsor & Maidenhead … Tendring once had a big UKIP presence and is now Tories vs. independents, with Labour strategists predicting a Conservative gain from no overall control.
6 a.m.: The night ends with two big tests of whether Labour’s heading for a 2024 majority. Party activists say they have the best chance in two decades of taking Medway, whose three MPs turned blue in 2010 … and need to gain 10 seats if they want to take control of Stoke-on-Trent, whose trio of MPs are Tory since 2019. Starmer gave a big speech on crime there.
From Friday afternoon
Noon: Greens want more seats in Herefordshire which slipped out of Tory control in 2019 … Labour expects to increase its majority of one on Rossendale … and believes its majority of four on Worthing looks solid … Mansfield reelects its mayor after Labour’s man won by two votes last time.
1 p.m.: Once-solid Solihull and Stratford-upon-Avon now have wafer-thin Tory majorities … Labour has lost ground to regain in Tory Walsall … Labour, Greens and Lib Dems appear to have stood aside tactically in Tory Bracknell Forest … And “stop the boats” gets a test run in Folkestone & Hythe. Your author covered a Tory clean sweep there for the Kentish Express in 2011, but Conservatives now have only a third of seats.
2 p.m.: Labour needs to comfortably regain a majority on Blackpool, home to 2019er MP Scott Benton, if it wants to win in 2024 … Labour also expects to hold red-blue Crawley and will need gains in Hyndburn … Tories need two gains from independents to control Maldon and could progress in Torbay … but are defending tiny majorities in Welwyn Hatfield and East Cambridgeshire.
3 p.m.: Labour lost Darlington in 2019 after 40 years and pothole-gazing Tories are keen not to give it back … Lib Dems are targeting blue wall Surrey Heath (MP: M. Gove) and Wokingham, both in no overall control … Labour will want gains in key targets Erewash, and Middlesbrough where it lost 13 last time … small changes would shift control in Tory Pendle, Labour Kirklees and NOC West Lancashire, whose MP election Labour won on a 10 percent swing in February.
4 p.m.: A slew of massive Labour target areas including campaign launchtown Swindon, Gravesham, Great Yarmouth, and North East Derbyshire where Labour lost 16 seats last time … Greens want their first council majority in the northern hemisphere in Mid Suffolk … Labour battles Lib Dems in Redcar & Cleveland, Stockport and Sheffield … and Lib Dems chase gains from Tories in South Hams, Chichester and Elmbridge (local MP: D. Raab).
5 p.m.: Starmer visited Derby in a bid to recoup 13 seats Labour lost in 2019, but Reform UK is standing a full slate … Sizeable progress would see Labour shore up Bury, Bolsover and Southampton, and regain High Peak and Stockton-on-Tees … Tories and independents are neck-and-neck in North Kesteven … and Green-run Brighton & Hove is split three ways with Tories and Labour.
6 p.m. on: Tory Amber Valley has long ping-ponged from Labour … Cheshire West & Chester, South Ribble and South Derbyshire are tight red-blue battles and Labour will want to advance … A good night for the Lib Dems will see them hold Winchester and advance in Waverley (local MP: Chancellor Jeremy Hunt) … Greens want gains in Lancaster … but who cares? You’ll all be getting drunk before that king thing anyway.
Where to watch — or listen — as results come in
BBC One has Laura Kuenssberg and John Curtice from 11.40 p.m. to 6 a.m. … Sky News’ live coverage runs from midnight to TBC (likely 7 p.m.) on Friday, with Beth Rigby and Michael Thrasher on hand during the day … Radio 4 and 5Live have Nick Robinson, Rachel Burden and Philip Cowley from 11 p.m. to 5.20 a.m. … LBC‘s Iain Dale hosts a special from 1 a.m. to 6 a.m. … BBC Two has a Politics Live Special from Noon to 1.45 p.m., switching to BBC One until 4.30 p.m. … and ITV‘s Good Morning Britain has Colin Rallings’ analysis from 6 a.m.
Live coverage will shut up shop promptly on Friday ahead of the coronation of King Charles III, while results still roll in — which for whoever’s worst-off will be the king of dead cats.
This article first appeared in POLITICO London Playbook.
