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Support for easing Ukraine’s pathway to NATO membership is growing within the alliance, increasing the likelihood that the proposal becomes official during a major gathering next month.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has privately suggested that allies agree Ukraine could join NATO after the war without following a Membership Action Plan, which is a series of military and democratic reforms an applicant nation must make before accession.
Removing the MAP hurdle speeds up Ukraine’s bid to become an ally, but doesn’t provide any timeline or guarantees that Kyiv will eventually receive unanimous approval for its membership.
That falls short of Ukraine’s wishes to join right away but goes further toward making them eventually come true. President Joe Biden is “open” to the plan and told Stoltenberg as much during their discussion in Washington on Tuesday. As NATO’s most important member, U.S. support goes a long way to waiving the MAP requirement during the alliance’s July summit in Vilnius, Lithuania.]
“If it’s what America really, really, really wants, they can usually get it over the line,” said an official from a NATO country, who, like the seven other NATO and member-state officials POLITICO spoke to, was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive internal deliberations. “This idea put forward by Stoltenberg should hopefully be consensual within the alliance,” another allied official said.
A NATO official further noted that “there seems to be landing space” within the alliance for the proposal.
Momentum to grease Ukraine’s membership pathway started building in May when French President Emmanuel Macron said Kyiv needed security guarantees and indications that it could join NATO someday. “If we want a sustainable peace and want to be credible toward Ukraine, we must include it in an architecture of security,” he said during a conference in Slovakia.
His remarks made clear that France, historically resistant to moves that frayed ties with Russia, was more open to once-divisive options.
A senior diplomat from Eastern Europe said on Friday that the proposal to remove the need for a MAP, “if suggested, is a good one. We would support.” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius was also upbeat. “There are increasing signs that everyone will be able to agree on this,” he told reporters Friday, adding: “I would be open for this.”
A diplomat from northern Europe, meanwhile, stressed that removing MAP “might be” one of several components of a political package offered to Ukraine at Vilnius, along with “likely bilateral security assurances,” but that “discussions will gear up next week.”
There are stumbling blocks, however.
Eastern European members want Ukraine to have a clear, imminent post-war pathway to membership. But some southern Europeans fear that removing the MAP barrier would further anger Russia, potentially escalate the war and make rebuilding ties with Moscow after the war harder.
A number of central and eastern allies are likely to push for an even firmer political gesture to Ukraine ahead of Vilnius. “It is one important step in the process, but not the only one,” said one senior Central European diplomat on Friday.
There’s also the problem of Hungary and Turkey, which are “uncomfortable” with inching Ukraine along the membership path, the first official from a NATO country said. “It won’t be that straightforward” in Vilnius.
Still, a number of officials indicate that the alliance is generally open to the approach. A senior diplomat from Western Europe said they “hope” removing MAP would be sufficient for other allies. Washington, the diplomat said, is “aware of governance challenges” and this “should reassure everyone.”
Said another official from a NATO country: “There is support for this, but it is still under discussion.”
Calling the chances of a consensus on MAP removal “likely” after Biden’s openness to the plan, the same official said, “fundamentally more countries are supporting a more active line on Ukraine than the administration perhaps expected initially.”
Some experts are unsure what removing the MAP hurdle practically does for Ukraine.
“It’s only useful if there is a commitment and timetable for the alternative: Immediate NATO membership after the fighting ends. Otherwise, it just removes a hypothetical hurdle to a future no one has yet committed to,” said the Council on Foreign Relations’ Liana Fix.
Josh Shiffrinson of the Cato Institute also argues that it makes Ukraine’s current situation more dangerous.
“We’re reducing Russia’s reasons to wind down the current war, giving it strong incentives to engage in preventive war if it looks like NATO is fast-tracking Ukraine’s membership after the present conflict,” he said.
But U.S. and NATO ally officials say the membership conversation only kicks off once Ukraine’s war with Russia is over. At that point, an assessment can be made about Ukrainian sovereignty and the makeup of the government in Kyiv. The country would still have to initiate serious democratic reforms, including ridding Ukraine of the corruption that has plagued its government for decades.
Stoltenberg reiterated his stance Friday that “all allies agree Ukraine will become a member of NATO.”
“We’re not going to discuss an invitation at the Vilnius summit, but how we can move Ukraine closer to NATO,” the alliance chief said, “and I’m confident that we will find a good solution.”
Alexander Ward reported from Washington with contributions from Paul McLeary. Lili Bayer reported from Brussels.
