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Ukraine on Thursday warned that all ships sailing to Russian-controlled Black Sea ports could be targeted by attacks — a response by Kyiv to Moscow’s threat against civilian vessels traveling to Ukrainian seaports.
Kyiv’s defense ministry said in a statement that such vessels “may be considered by Ukraine as carrying military cargo with all the corresponding risks” from midnight Friday.
The move comes as a response to Moscow withdrawing Monday from a U.N.-brokered deal allowing passage to cargo ships carrying grain from Ukrainian ports.
Russia followed up by launching a barrage of airstrikes at Kyiv’s ports this week. On Wednesday, the Russian defense ministry said that “all ships going across the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports will be considered potential carriers of military-purpose cargoes” — meaning they could be subject to attack.
“The Russian Federation has once again brutally violated the universal right to free navigation for the whole world and is deliberately undermining food security,” Ukraine’s defense ministry said, adding that “the Kremlin has turned the Black Sea into a danger zone.”
Russia owns several Black Sea ports including major oil exporting harbor Novorossiysk. Moscow also currently controls Ukrainian ports such as Mariupol.
The Kremlin is trying to scare civilian ships from calling at Ukrainian ports, and Kyiv’s response aims to do the same to vessels sailing to Russian ports.
The tit-for-tat threats likely mean the movement of civilian ships will stop in the northern Black Sea as insurers suspend their coverage due to heightened risks, said a diplomat from one EU country home to a major maritime industry, speaking after being granted anonymity. “It’s quite worrying,” they said.
But John Stawpert, senior manager for environment and trade at the International Chamber of Shipping, said it’s difficult to predict the impact on shipping in the area amid the “saber-rattling.”
“It’s very much a case of wait and see at the moment,” he said.
Marine traffic suggests that Ukrainian controlled waters are largely empty of shipping while vessels are sailing to ports controlled by Moscow.
Whether ships continue to sail through the area would depend on “thorough risk assessments” and whether insurers would cover them, Stawpert said.
“If the risks can be insured, then I think it’s likely that they would do it,” he added. “It’s a question of what the level of threat is now in those waters.”
Lloyd’s of London, one of the world’s largest shipping insurance markets, declined to comment on Ukraine’s move but told POLITICO the resumption of the U.N. deal was “crucial in addressing risks to global food security” while adding it was “committed to continuing to support diplomatic efforts to reinstate the safe corridor.”
Moscow has said it would return to the deal under strict conditions, including if Western countries readmit its state agricultural bank to the SWIFT international payment system and lift restrictions on insurance for its vessels.
