ESA agrees on space cargo mission

SNEAK PEEK

— After the European Space Agency agreed on a plan to launch a cargo spaceflight mission by 2028, there’s a space-focused Competitiveness Council today.

— Russia reported damage to a telecommunications cable connecting St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad, and the Finnish Coast Guard suspects it could be linked to damage sustained by other Baltic Sea infrastructure last month.

— Finland grapples with how to adjust its defense posture within NATO, in particular how reservists fit within the alliance.

Good morning, and welcome to Morning Defense. Tips to [email protected], [email protected] and [email protected] or follow us at @joshposaner, @LauKaya and @calebmlarson.

DRIVING THE DAY

SPACE COUNCIL: Back again in Seville today for a space-focused sitting of the Competitiveness Council, after which EU ministers will also share the room with the slightly different configuration of the European Space Agency for a joint session covering sustainability in orbit.

Done and dusted? All the big space calls were made Monday at meeting of ESA members, where diplomats agreed (subject to audit) to commit more cash to the Ariane 6 rocket system from 2027. That will ensure there are at least 42 Ariane 6 launches (assuming it finally gets into commercial operation next year as planned) by securing funding for continued operations.

Audit first: The extra is capped at €340 million a year, and that’s dependent on an audit which will be carried out by an independent contractor for ESA. That will be used to determine whether that’s the amount the contractors require to keep making the components for the rocket system through 2029. The floor is €290 million, under a deal it’s fair to say leaves few happy.

Times change: When Ariane 6 was first pitched back in 2014 as a project led by French industry, the idea was that it would function with no need for subsidies. Nearly a decade later it’s still not flying and 13 countries are now on the hook for hundreds of millions.

To ISS first, then we’ll see: ESA members also agreed to a low-key competition to get two return cargo missions to the International Space Station by the end of 2028 rather than start a human spaceflight program from scratch. While that’s not what more ambitious space states wanted, it still puts Europe on track to start developing technology for the post-ISS age.

More from Josh and Giorgio Leali on that here.

Ljubljana in: Meanwhile, Slovenia has applied for full ESA membership, after agreeing its first space strategy this month.

More from Seville: The European Commission today will talk about space programs — for example, the Resilience, Interconnectivity and Security by Satellite, or IRIS2, constellation that’s an alternative to SpaceX’s Starlink system. Also, the EU executive is planning to draft a space law over the coming months and the consultation on that just closed.

AGENDA

SPACE: The press conference ending the Competitiveness Council with space-loving Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton is at 2 p.m. and Josh will be there.

FRANCE: Lawmakers in the National Assembly will vote on the defense budget in the plenary session this evening.

FINNO-SWEDISH MEETING: Sweden and Finland’s foreign and defense ministers meet in Helsinki today to discuss the deteriorating situation in the Baltic as well as deepening ties when both are in NATO.

BELGIUM: Belgian Defense Minister Ludivine Dedonder will discuss the relationship between defense policy and diplomacy today at the Palais d’Egmont in Brussels.

Carnegie Europe hosts a debate with U.S. Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith on the future role of the U.S. in the current world. Rue du Congrès 15, Brussels, at 3:30 p.m.

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ARMS DEALS

FRANCE WILL SEND ARMORED VEHICLES TO LEBANON: Paris will give several dozen armored personnel carriers to the Lebanese army, French Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu told local outlet L’Orient-Le Jour. France will also provide medical support by via a €100,000 aid package in the next fortnight. Paris has long supported the Lebanese national army, which is less powerful militarily than its de facto rival, the armed militant group Hezbollah.

UKRAINE TO GET FRENCH ASSAULT RIFLES: French firearms manufacturing company Verney-Carron — a subsidiary of Cybergun — will sell 10,000 assault rifles, 2,000 sniper rifles and 400 grenade launchers to Kyiv for a total of €36 million. The framework agreement is “subject to the necessary financing being in place,” according to a statement. Read more from Laura here.

MILITARY EXERCISES

CYBER PREPAREDNESS: The Lithuanian Armed Forces are in the middle of Amber Mist 2023 today, a four-day military exercise that will run through cyber incident scenario responses with the aim of identifying and preventing cyber intrusions and strengthening Lithuania’s public and private sector cyber resilience — as well as that of other countries within the NATO alliance.

MARITIME

MORE DAMAGE TO BALTIC SEA INFRASTRUCTURE: A Russian telecommunication cable in the Gulf of Finland was damaged last month, around the same time Finland, Sweden and Estonia also reported damage to some of their undersea infrastructure. Russian state-owned telecommunications operator Rostelecom notified Finnish authorities about the failure of the Baltika telecommunications cable on October 12, according to Finland’s economy ministry. The 1,000-kilometer cable, which connects St. Petersburg to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, runs through parts of Sweden and Finland’s exclusive economic zones.

Repair work underway: On Monday, Finnish authorities said a Russian vessel started repair work on site, under monitoring by the Russian coast guard and the Estonian navy.

Possible link to other Baltic Sea damage: Investigations are underway, but Deputy Commander of the Gulf of Finland Coast Guard Mikko Hirvi told Helsingin Sanomat this incident could be linked to damage sustained by the Balticconnector gas pipeline connecting Finland and Estonia last month.

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NATO

FINLAND’S NATO HURDLES: Finnish Minister of Defense Antti Häkkänen talked about three significant challenges Finland is facing following its accession to NATO at the opening ceremony of the National Defense Course: Finland’s role in the alliance’s nuclear deterrent, how the country would host foreign forces and Finnish deployments as part of NATO peacetime missions.

Full integration with NATO: One of the significant challenges is how Finland pivots from decades of preparing for self-defense alone toward broader alliance defense. “Our armed forces must not be allowed to have separate NATO personnel who rotate from one task to another in the alliance,” Häkkänen said, adding that “as many as possible must have experience of service in NATO structures. This is essential for our national defense capability.”

Reserve soldiers: Reservists make up the backbone of Finland’s military strength — and Häkkänen indicated a legislative change might be necessary to clarify how reservists will serve within NATO deployments in Finland and abroad.

Handshake with the United States: Häkkänen said that an agreement between Finland and the United States had been hammered out, facilitating the entry, operation and retention of American military forces in Finland — including both for routine military exercises as well as for emergencies.

Balticconnector: The recent damage to energy pipeline and telecommunication cable infrastructure also got a nod. “Western, free and open societies will never be able — without significant restrictions on civil liberties and transparency — to protect themselves to the same level as authoritarian, secretive states,” Häkkänen said. “We will not… restrict civil liberties and transparency, but it is high time to abandon naive blue-eyedness and do what needs to be done. And there is much to be done.”

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

GERMAN SUPPORT TO UKRAINE HAS A LIMIT: Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius spoke about the future of military aid to Ukraine at the NATO Talk 2023, where he highlighted his country’s assistance — second in the world behind the United States — but did not see a breakout role for Germany’s Taurus cruise missile requested by Ukraine.

Not a silver bullet: “I don’t believe that Taurus would be a game changer in this war,” Pistorius said. Countries supporting Ukraine must try to prevent the war from becoming static “but always keep an eye on what our own interests are.” Berlin has repeatedly refused to deliver Taurus missiles, citing fears that Ukrainian strikes on high-profile Russian infrastructure in occupied Ukraine — the Kerch Strait bridge in particular — could cause escalation.

“The ATACMS [U.S. long range missiles] that have been delivered [to Ukraine] have a range of 150 kilometers, 160 kilometers. The Taurus, 500,” Pistorius said. “So we are talking about a completely different system and we have to weigh that up in all our decisions.”

Take that, Russia: Ukraine’s other allies have provided Kyiv with long range weapons, and some were used to devastating effect against a Russian missile carrier at the city of Kerch in Russian-occupied Crimea. Mykola Oleshchuk, commander of the Ukrainian Air Force, linked the attack to French-supplied SCALP cruise missiles. “Well done, the attack went through like a SCALPel,” Oleshchuk said.

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