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| SNEAK PEEK |
— The European Space Agency will hold a meeting today in Spain, to discuss the long-delayed Ariane 6 rocket system.
— France is muscling into new defense contracts in countries Russia considers its sphere of influence.
— Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy fired his special operations forces commander without explanation.
Good morning, and welcome to Morning Defense. Tips to jposaner@politico.eu, lkayali@politico.eu and clarson@politico.eu or follow us at @joshposaner, @LauKaya and @calebmlarson.
| DRIVING THE DAY |
SPACE SUMMIT: The European Space Agency holds a ministerial meeting in Seville today, ahead of a space-focused EU competitiveness Council to be held on Tuesday under the Spanish Council presidency. Expect updates on everything from Ariane 6 rocket funding to fresh visuals from the Euclid exploration mission.
Dampen your expectations: Hopes that this meeting would firm up a political mandate for ESA to start working on a serious human and robot spaceflight program have gone on the backburner given the multiple crises facing European governments right now.
Facing reality: Things looked different not long ago, with ex-NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen leading an expert advisory group which called on ESA to lead a “bold mission” to “galvanize and revolutionize the whole European economy.” That could have meant some serious political momentum in Seville for a human spaceflight program to rival the U.S. and China.
Robots first: Diplomats argue there is still a general consensus that Europe should boost its robotic exploration in the coming years, just things will move more slowly than ambitious countries would like. The boss of France’s space agency CNES, Philippe Baptiste, told Les Echos that the aim is to “resume robotic cargo flights in space and then develop our own human transport capsule” after that.
We don’t talk cash: ESA member states only agree to fresh spending plans every three years, so money won’t be discussed today. However, there are some funding-related issues to clarify. Countries will consider an industry request to up contributions to the heavily-delayed Ariane 6 rocket program, with French media reporting that contractors need an extra €350 million. With the hot-fire test of the rocket set to take place on November 23 it’s unlikely we’ll get any more new news in terms of a commercial launch window for next year.
Eyes in sky: The U.K.’s extended absence from the Copernicus satellite program has created a €721 million shortfall in the project.
Who’s in: From the bloc’s big space states, France’s Economics Minister Bruno Le Maire and his counterpart from Italy, Adolfo Urso, are expected to be there. Josh will also be on scene to report on the summit.
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| AGENDA |
SPACE: At 4 p.m on the sidelines of the ESA meeting, Airbus, Voyager and the agency will sign a memorandum of understanding on the Starlab project, which is a commercial space station planned as a successor to the International Space Station.
A closing press conference from ESA’s Director General Josef Aschbacher and the German government’s space coordinator Anna Christmann is at 6:45 p.m.
NATO: The German Atlantic Association is cohosting this year’s NATO Talks in tandem with the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies in Berlin today at 9 a.m.
Germany Defense Minister Boris Pistorius will open the conference, and the focus will be security architecture in Europe, Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine and China’s growing claim to world power status. The event will be in-person and livestreamed in English.
POSTPONED: The meeting between French and German lawmakers in Berlin to talk about the Main Combat Ground System next generation tank has been postponed due to illness on the German side.
**A message from ASD: In the new security environment, Europe needs to rapidly ramp-up its defence industrial production. However, diverging and cumbersome regulatory and administrative processes for permit-granting, procurement and intra-EU transfers often lead to unnecessary delays. Find out more.**
| FRANCE |
FRENCH INFLUENCE EXPANDS EASTWARD: France is elbowing its way into Russia’s backyard, one defense agreement at a time. In a matter of a few weeks, French Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced arms deals with Moldova and Armenia, two former Soviet republics increasingly looking to the West for new friends.
Territorial integrity: Moldova and Armenia “are not in the EU, but are part of the European geographical area, and are relatively fragile due to certain attempts at destabilization,” a French government official told Morning Defense. “France has the will to help countries that could be threatened by external intrusions protect their borders and sovereignty,” they added.
Lessons from Ukraine: For now, French contracts with both countries cover mainly air defense systems. The focus on air defense and training — France has pledged to share know-how with both armed forces — is a direct consequence of lessons drawn from Ukraine, according to the German Marshall Fund’s Gesine Weber.
Read more from Laura and Gabriel Gavin here.
MIXED FEELINGS ON DEFENSE INVESTMENT FUND: Definvest — France’s €100 million cash pile for innovative defense SMEs — hasn’t fully met its objective of ensuring strategic companies are financially healthy and immune to foreign economic predation, according to a report by the French Court of Auditors released Friday. “Definvest behaves more like a private minority shareholder with an economic rationale rather than a truly strategic one,” the report reads.
Recommandations: Definvest should be better linked with other existing tools for defense SMEs, the Court of Auditors argues, as well as slashing management fees to become more cost effective. Its long-term objectives, such as dual civil-military activities, should be made clearer, the institution added.
| ARMS DEALS |
SOUTH KOREA HELPS POLAND: South Korea is working with its financial sector to provide a syndicated loan to Warsaw to help the Polish government purchase $22 billion worth of Korean weapons, Reuters reported. The two countries signed a massive arms deal last year that includes 48 light combat aircraft, tanks and howitzers.
| UKRAINE |
TENSIONS IN KYIV: Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appointed Colonel Serhiy Lapunchak as the new commander of army special operations forces after the surprise firing of General Viktor Khorenko, who had led the unit since July, the country’s Presidential Office reported. Zelenskyy hasn’t explained his decision — but the reshuffle comes after tensions between Zelenskyy and the country’s top general on whether there is a stalemate in the war against Russia. General Valery Zaluzhnyy told the Economist: “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough”
Zelenskyy begs to differ: “I believe that today, indeed, the situation is difficult, I don’t think this is a stalemate,” Zelenskyy told NBC on Sunday. “They thought that they would checkmate us, but this didn’t happen.” Zelenskyy ended the interview with a simple, partially bleeped reason that Ukraine continues to fight: “We are not ready to give our freedom to this f—ing terrorist, Putin. That’s it. That’s why we are fighting. That’s it.”
More from our U.S. colleague Andrew Howard here.
Stalemate on the battlefield: But the idea that there is a battlefield stalemate is gaining ground. The British Ministry of Defence reported both sides aren’t able to advance, as they have both maintained credible air defenses, preventing combat jets from providing effective air support for assaults. “Above all, the geographic size of the conflict has hampered the offensives: both sides have struggled to assemble uncommitted striking forces capable of a breakthrough because most of their mobilized troops are needed to hold the 1,200km line of contact,” the MoD said.
UKRAINE’S EXPEDITED PRODUCTION PUSH: On Friday, Ukraine’s Minister of Strategic Industries Oleksandr Kamyshin provided details about his strategy for getting new, domestically-produced equipment to the front as soon as possible. Recognizing that virtually all weapons produced in Ukraine are destined for quick use on the battlefield, the defense ministry moved to abolish “excessive testing” — including testing to validate a 10-year storage shelf-life.
Rapid deployment: The “manufacturer clearly understands that there is no need to store this [military equipment] sample for 10 years because it goes straight from the assembly line to the front,” Kamyshin said. “Therefore, these shelf life indicators do not affect the quality of the sample,” and weaponry and vehicles can skip this testing.
MORE GERMAN AMMO FOR UKRAINE?: Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba met with Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger in Berlin on Friday to discuss the budding German-Ukrainian defense industry partnership. Taking to X, Kuleba stated that Ukraine “will have more weapons and ammunition to defend itself, protect civilians and infrastructure from Russian attacks.”
A fruitful partnership: The pairing of the country’s defense industries took concrete shape last month when Kamyshin came to Berlin to establish defense partnerships (catch Caleb and Joshua’s interview with the minister here).
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| NATO |
STRONG GRIFFON 2023: Lithuania kicked off multinational exercises Sunday with NATO allies Poland, Portugal and the United States. The two-week-long training will include about 2,200 troops and hundreds of pieces of military kit.
NATO NAVAL TRAINING: NATO’s Italian-led Dynamic Mariner exercise in the Mediterranean finishes today. Rome is also preparing to take over the NATO Response Force Maritime element (NRF/M) — a quickly deployable, multi-national NATO asset — from Turkey next year.
| GOING GLOBAL |
TOKYO’S NAVAL POWER: Japan’s Ministry of Defense will procure 12 new FFM stealth frigates that will succeed the current Mogami-class FFM for the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force, Naval News reports. The new ships reflect Tokyo’s increasing willingness to invest in national defense.
THANKS TO: Jan Cienski and Zoya Sheftalovich.
**A message from ASD: Administrative and regulatory hurdles hinder European defence industry from rapidly increasing its production: protracted licensing processes delay the establishment or expansion of production facilities; diverging purchasing rules among Member States hamper efficient cross-border cooperation; country-specific product requirements lead to fragmented production and prevent economies of scale; over-stringent operational requirements increase technical complexity, production times and costs; and EU regulations, such as REACH, limit certain activities critical for armaments production. Red tape can severely impact the EU’s ability to respond promptly to crises and changing geopolitical dynamics.**
