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By P K Balachandran/Sunday Observer
Colombo, December 10: Following the November elections in five States, the Indian political scene is marked by sharply contrasting moods. While there is unbridled jubilation in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) camp, there is heavy despondency in the 28-party Congress-led Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA).
The BJP’s mascot, principal vote-catcher and India’s Premier, Narendra Modi, is confident that the victories in the politically important States of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh will culminate in a massive mandate for him in the May 2024 parliamentary elections. Modi has himself declared that he is aiming at a hat trick, winning parliamentary elections and becoming PM three times in a row.
The BJP bagged three of the five States which went to the polls in November. These were Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The Congress bagged Telangana, and the fifth State, Mizoram, went to a regional party, Zoram Peoples’ Movement (ZPM).
Of the 199 seats up for grabs in Rajasthan, the BJP got 115 and Congress 70. In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP’s tally was 163 out of 230. In Chhattisgarh, its tally was 54 out of 90. Only in Telangana the Congress secured a majority of seats, winning 65 out of 119 seats. In Mizoram, both Congress and BJP were badly defeated by a regional party, the Zoram Peoples’ Movement (ZPM).
These successes have been very thrilling for the BJP because it was expected to lose all five. The losses have been extremely bitter for the Congress because it was touted as the winner in four out of five States. Clearly, India’s political observers had failed to read the minds of the voters in the run-up to the polls.
The popular view now is that the BJP, helmed as it is by the internationally acclaimed political leader, Narendra Modi, will win the 2024 parliamentary elections hands down.
However, unbiased observers of Indian politics say that it would be naïve to write off the Congress and its alliance “India”. Firstly, the BJP’s victories have been confined to North India, the Hindi-speaking home ground of Hindu majoritarian nationalism, popularly called “Hindutva”.
In contrast to the North, Hindu majoritarianism has little or no traction in the non-Hindi-speaking Southern States. This, despite the fact that the majority of South Indians are devout Hindus and there are sizeable populations of Muslims and Christians amidst them. While in the North, these minorities are the political “other” to be targeted, in the South they are not “othered”. In the South, political formations are based on a different set of criteria.
Hindi-speaking States
Of course, control over Hindi-speaking States is critical at the all-India level as these States form the single largest bloc in the Indian parliament. Their numbers are expected to increase if seats are re-allocated based on the changed population distribution. The growing population in the North and declining population in the South give the BJP an inherent advantage over opposition parties that do not tout Hindutva such as the Congress.
Political activist and commentator Yogendra Yadav told www.thewire.in that Congress’ prospects won’t be dismal if one looks at the voting figures in the November elections in four States (barring Mizoram).
Using the Election Commission’s data, he said that “winner” BJP got 48,133,463 votes, whereas the Congress, which was “defeated”, got 49,077, 907 votes. That means that, overall, the Congress got about 955,000 more votes than the BJP.
State-wise, in Rajasthan, the BJP got 41.7 percent of the votes, while the Congress got 39.6 percent. The difference, then, was only 2 percent. In Chhattisgarh, the difference was 4 percent – BJP got 46.3 percent votes while the Congress got 42.2 percent votes. Only in Madhya Pradesh was the difference higher at 8 percent. The BJP got 48.6 percent votes and Congress 40 percent votes in Madhya Pradesh. Yadav believes that these gaps can be filled. If the BJP got more seats than the Congress, it was due to the first-past-the post system.
The second point put forward by Yadav was that victory at State-level elections need not necessarily lead to victory in the national elections. In the State-level elections in 2018, the BJP lost in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. But when parliamentary elections were held in 2019, the BJP won a landslide victory in these three States.
And victory at the national level was no guarantee for victory in a State election. The BJP won all the seven parliamentary seats in Delhi State in the 2019 general elections, but lost the State to the Aam Admi Party (AAP) in the State elections in 2020.
Similarly, while the Congress lost in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh in 2003, in the 2004 parliamentary elections, it won a majority in all three. In other words, every election is different and holds different prospects.
The third point that Yadav made was that Congress and its allies should deny seats to the BJP in the non-Hindi-speaking States, especially in the South, where Hindutva does not get traction.
But this is not an easy task, warned political scientist Ashutosh Varshaney. The BJP’s potential in the South cannot be wished away as it had dethroned the Congress in Karnataka earlier, albeit by engineering defections. There is a growing BJP constituency in Kerala where communal contradictions are appearing. Telangana, with its large Muslim population, could come under the sway of Hindutva.
Organisational Limitations
The Pune-based political scientist Suhas Palshikar pointed to the Congress’ organisational limitations and the weakness of its leadership. This cost it governments in Karnataka, Goa, Manipur, Meghalaya and Madhya Pradesh even after winning elections to their State Assemblies. The BJP’s central leadership had used its money power and political chutzpah to engineer defections from the Congress.
Political scientists are also seeing a large gap between the Congress leadership and its second rung and State-level leaders. While Rahul Gandhi goes on and on with his tirade against the favours shown by Prime Minister Modi to the business tycoon Gautam Adani, the rest of the party leaders make no mention of Adani. This is because Adani has invested in their States.
Rahul Gandhi is also out of touch with the change in the role of caste in the politics of North India. Caste inequality, which was a major issue in the 1980s, has now been washed away by the politics of Hindu consolidation against Muslims. Aggressive Hindu nationalism has replaced the benign Indian nationalism of the Congress that was based on social equality and political and cultural pluralism.
Sure enough, Rahul’s plea for a caste census found no traction in North India which is under the spell of Hindutva that calls for the unity of Hindus cutting across caste.
The election results have visibly affected the India alliance. When the Congress called for a summit of its leaders on December 6, there were no takers, with leaders trotting out excuses for their absence. The meeting that was held ultimately was of the Coordination Committee of India.
INDIA leaders are also issuing statements against Rahul Gandhi’s leadership or criticising the Congress for not giving its allies an adequate number of tickets. It is now the bounden duty of the Congress to stop playing the hegemon and take the allies along.
But this is easier than done. In contrast to Modi, Rahul lacks charisma and the chutzpa that Modi and his second in command, Amit Shah, have in abundance. And while Mod is a seasoned leader, Rahul is still learning the ropes.
The road ahead for the Congress and India alliance is indeed hard. But it can be traversed successfully if some critical lessons are learnt.
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