Will the Rajapaksas’ dream of coming back to power come true?

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By Veeragathy Thanabalasingham

Colombo, December 30: Former Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa seems to believe that if the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP ) is not rebuilt as a strong political  party in his time, other Rajapaksas may not be able to do so in the future.

Although the Rajapaksas of Ruhunu had been involved in politics and held various positions since the early part of the last century, it was only after Mahinda became the Executive President in the early part of this century that they grew into a powerful family wielding immense influence in politics. Mahinda is the political face of the Rajapaksa family.  

The Rajapaksas, who stepped down from power after last year’s ‘Aragalaya’ uprising, within a few months started talking about coming back to power in the near future. They went along with President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s decision to indefinitely postpone the local government elections. But they were not hesitant about  claiming that their party would win any future election. It can be seen that in recent times such talk has increased.  

Mahinda is well aware that the landmark November 14 Supreme Court judgement holding the three Rajapaksa brothers directly  responsible for last year’s economic crisis has grave implications for his family’s political prospects. But he said that he did not accept the ruling  and that all economic decisions taken during his regime were with the approval of Parliament.

Two weeks later, on November 28, he released a report with numerous statistics, saying that the economy had seen healthy growth during his tenure from 2005 to 2014 and that the actions of the ‘  Yahapalanya ‘ government that came to into office was the main reason for present  economic crisis.

Through the statement, Mahinda appealed to the people of the country to never again take a decision like the one taken in the 2015 elections. His message to the people was “bring SLPP back to office.”

Neither the leaders nor the ministers of the ‘ Yahapalanaya ‘  government issued a strong reply denying Mahinda’s allegations.

Exactly one month after the  Supreme Court’s ruling, on December 15, the second national convention of the SLPP was held at  the Sugatadasa Indoor Stadium, Colombo. Mahinda was  re-elected leader of the party.

The post of national organizer, earlier held by former finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa, was left vacant. This could not be without a good political reason. Former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa was conspicuous by his absence at the convention. Only Mahinda and Basil addressed the gathering. SLPP General Secretary Sagara Kariyawasam was only allowed to deliver the welcome address.

” The SLPP is prepared to come back to power. The party will start a new journey according to the needs of the country. We invite people of all communities to join us in creating a new nation. With all our strength we will win any election. Many political parties are waiting for our invitation to join our journey,” Mahinda thundered.

“We will create a new political culture eschewing falsehood. We will strive until our efforts and work are written in history. We are ready to start our journey from where we failed to take Sri Lanka to the front of the world as a proud country,” Mahinda said.

He once again claimed credit for the war victory saying that during the three decades of war, no other leader had the courage to confront LTTE leader Prabhakaran head-on.

The Rajapaksas will definitely need Prabhakaran to regain influence among the Sinhalese people. Not only that, communal politics will once again play a key  role in their quest for recovery.

A strange feature is observable in the current approach  of the Rajapaksas. Having used their party’s parliamentary majority to install Wickremesinghe as President last year, they are now keen on distancing themselves from his administration.

Although President Wickremesinghe is the leader of the United National Party, all but one or two ministers in his government are members of the SLPP. Many of them were ministers in the government of two Rajapaksa brothers.

Bills and resolutions brought by the  Wickramasinghe government are passed in the House with the support of the members of the SLPP. The two budgets presented by Wickramasinghe, in his capacity as Finance Minister could not have been passed without the support of SLPP. Not only that, the Rajapaksas do not fail to say from time to time that the President is working efficiently in rescuing the country from crisis and has restored law and order.

Everyone knows that Basil Rajapaksa has often urged President Wickremesinghe to give ministerial posts to the district leaders of the SLPP but to no avail.

Mahinda, who issued a statement on the government’s tax policies, said that the current government is not run by the SLPP. He tries to justify his support to the Wickramasinghe administration by saying that though the SLPP is part of the government, the head of the government is the leader of another party that follows a different policy. It is the duty of SLPP to ensure that a stable government is in office until the next national elections.  

Also, Mahinda has expressed an opinion against tax hikes as people are worried about the impending rise in the cost of living.  

Mahinda made such statements after his MPs had raised their hands in support of bills to increase taxes like the Value Added Tax (VAT) which was raised from 15 percent to 18 percent.

While Mahinda supported the VAT bill, his eldest son, Namal Rajapaksa, who is said to be his political heir, did not. Namal was not present in the House during the vote on the bill. He said he could not support the tax bill which would bring untold hardship to the people.

What can be said about this other than that it is an insult to the intelligence of the people? Namal did not have the courage to be in the House vote against it.

Tax policy will become a key political issue in the new year, with Mahinda saying it will be a major focus of their campaign in the national elections.

Mahinda’s two statements issued in November and December and his comments to the media from time to time make it clear that he expects the people of the country to believe that the origin of the economic crisis facing the country today lies in the policies and actions of the ‘Yahapalanaya’ government and that the Rajapaksas are not responsible despite what the Supreme  Court said in its judgment.

Even last week, Mahinda said that the SLPP would regain power in the next election. He seems to believe that by repeating this he can influence the masses.

Clearly, the Rajapaksas have not learned lessons from the way they were humbled and driven out of office within years of the grand image they had built about themselves. They dream of coming back to power without really understanding what people really think about them. However, the general estimate is that the SLPP will not suffer the same fate as the United National Party in the last parliamentary elections.

Be that as it may, it is unlikely that a Rajapaksa will contest the next Presidential election. They know that a defeat in that election will be detrimental to rebuilding the party. The Rajapaksa’s strategy in the next elections will be to ensure a government that does not hold it accountable for past mistakes.

Even if the Rajapaksas try to present some people to the country like Dhammika Perera as potential presidential candidates of their party, they have no ‘safer choice’ than Wickremesinghe.

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