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By P.K.Balachandran/Ceylon Today
Colombo, January 22: The results of the Taiwanese Presidential and parliamentary elections held on January 13, were a mixed bag. While anti-China Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won, the not so anti-China Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomingtang (KMT) was a close second. And in the parliamentary elections, the scales were tilted in favour of the KMT, but only slightly
Prior to the elections, Communist China had stepped up its campaign to reunify China with Taiwan. China was hoping that the DPP will lose and KMT will win. But that was not to be and China is naturally not pleased.
While neither the DPP nor the KMT is eager to disturb the delicate balance between China and Taiwan and China is unlikely to match its belligerent remarks with aggressive action, relations between the two countries will continue to be on the edge.
In the Presidential election, Lai Ching-te beat Hou Yu-ih of the KMT bagging 40% of the votes under the first past the post system. Hou Yu-eh got 33.5%. But in the parliamentary elections, the KMT got 52 seats and the DPP 51 out of the 133 seats up for grabs.
72% of the nearly 19 million eligible voters had voted in the elections.
Opinions polls conducted prior to the elections, had correctly predicted the outcome. A TVBS poll conducted on Monday put DPP’s Lai at 33% with KMT’s Hou at 30% and former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je of the small Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) at 22%.
The ETtoday poll on Tuesday put Lai at 38.9%, Hou at 35.8% and Ko at 22.4%. A survey done by My Formosa released on December 28 found support for Lai at 40%, for Hou at 28.9 % and for Dr Ko Wen-je at 17.6%.
Given the fact reunification with China was a major issue, the slim margin of victories show that the issue was deeply divisive and that it will continue to be divisive.
Chinese President Xi Jinping, who gave unification with Taiwan top billing in his New Year message, will be personally disappointed with the results. But he can also draw comfort from the fact that the KMT lost narrowly, and that the issue of unification engages the Taiwanese quite intensely.
True to style, China said it would not give up on achieving “reunification” despite the electoral setback.
What will be Beijing’s relations with the Lai Ching-te regime? In the run up to the elections, Beijing had described Lai as a “dangerous separatist.” It had rebuffed Lai’s repeated calls for talks.
To smoothen ruffled feathers with troublesome neighbour or Big Brother, Lai said that he would maintain the status quo in Taiwan’s relations with China while being “determined to safeguard Taiwan from threats and intimidation from China”.
Beijing wants DPP to abide by the “1992 Consensus” which it had entered into with the KMT. But the DPP does not recognise any “consensus”. However, the DPP has been, and still is, open to trading and having economic relations with China, without an outright absorption by China.
The KMT, on the other hand, wants to have a much closer relationship though short of reunification.
Given the fact that unification is an explosive issue, all the three stakeholders, namely, China, Taiwan and the US, are approaching the issue carefully, despite the aggressive public posturing. A war over Taiwan like the one over Ukraine is unlikely given the ramifications and the lessons learned from the Russo-Ukrainian war. But China will not give up reunification.
China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said: “Our stance on resolving the Taiwan question and realizing national reunification remains consistent, and our determination is as firm as rock,” Reuters quoted the office as saying.
But the official also said that China would work with “relevant political parties, groups, and people from Taiwan to boost exchanges and cooperation, and advance the peaceful development of cross-strait relations as well as the cause of national reunification”.
Given the fact that his position is weak in parliament, Lai said he would cooperate with his electoral rivals, Hou Yu-ih of the KMT and Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), in resolving the problems Taiwan faces.
The TPP had secured eight seats and has resolved to sit on the fence, supporting some legislation and opposing others on merit.
All said and done, reunification will continue to engage or torment Taiwan and Taiwanese politicians. It is an extremely critical issue for Xi Jinping as re-absorption of Taiwan is an unfinished part of the Chinese communist revolution.
Mao Zedong’s Peoples’ Liberation Army (PLA) was able to drive the Japanese and the United States-backed Kuomintang (KMT) out of the mainland by 1949. But it could not take Taiwan to which the KMT had fled. In 1997, China was able to get Hong Kong back from the British peacefully. Macao was secured from the Portuguese in 1999, also peacefully. But Taiwan has remained elusive, being armed to the teeth and protected by the US.
Xi Jinping is very keen on getting Taiwan back whether by peaceful means or war. While there is no official time frame, it is well known that he would like China completely unified by 2049, the centenary year of the establishment of the People’s Republic of China.
The imperial government of China had ceded Taiwan (then known as Formosa) to Japan in 1895. It was taken by the US from Japan in 1945 towards the end of World War II and handed over to the KMT in 1949 when the KMT fled from mainland China and sought refuge in Taiwan.
Although no party or political leader in Taiwan has openly sought reunification, improvement of economic and trade relations with Beijing is sought by all parties. But the degree of cooperation desired varies. Strangely enough, the KMT, which had had the sharpest and longest contradictions with the mainland’s Communists, now wants great cooperation with Beijing than the DPP.
Lai is committed to keep Taiwan independent. For him the “pragmatic road to Taiwan independence” is “maintaining the status quo.” A major issue standing in the way of reunification is the difference in the political systems of Taiwan and China. While Taiwan has a Western-style democracy, China has communist dictatorship.
Lai has said that he would continue on the path set by his predecessors and adhere to the “four commitments”, namely, a commitment to a free and democratic constitutional syste; commitment that the Republic of China (ROC) and the People’s Republic of China should not be subordinate to each other; commitment to resist annexation or encroachment upon ROC sovereignty; and commitment that the future of the ROC (Taiwan) must be decided in accordance with the will of the Taiwanese people.
The point to be noted is that no party in Taiwan rules out unification but it is left to the people to decide.
The estimation of China-Taiwan watchers is that in the short run, Beijing would not publicly express any goodwill towards Lai. But it can also be expected that both sides will attempt to build communication channels. There will also be brave folks who will try their best to bridge the two sides of the strait.
Will there be greater tension or more amicable relations between Beijing and Lai? This will depend on the specific policies and events that follow, as well as how both sides handle matters, says a piece on the election result in the South China Morning Post.
Then there is the all-important American factor. “The US will be holding its own elections towards the end of 2024, and China will first observe the political changes in Washington before deciding how to deal with its opponent Lai,” the SCMP article says.
Till date, the US is officially committed to the “One China” policy and it won’t give it up unless circumstances force it to change. The ball is squarely in the court of the two Chinas – the PRC and ROC.
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