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MUNICH — The worst-case scenario of a nuclear weapon detonation in orbit by Russia would be catastrophic, the commander of Germany’s military Space Command, Major General Michael Traut, said late Friday.
Speaking at a side event of the Munich Security Conference, Traut was clear that there are “more questions then answers” when it comes to revelations this past week in the United States that Russia is understood to be developing some form of anti-satellite nuclear weapon.
While it sounds like science fiction, it isn’t yet clear whether such a space weapon is a ground-based missile or a targeted nuclear-powered spacecraft able to take out satellites in orbit.
The worst-case scenario of an indiscriminate nuclear blast in space radiating out a satellite-frying electromagnetic pulse across low earth orbit would be devastating for everyone, Traut said.
“If somebody dares to explode a nuclear weapon in high atmosphere or even space, this would be more or less the end of the usability of that global commons [of orbit],” said Traut.
The consequences of an attack would be to turn thousands of blinking satellites now buzzing through orbit into junk while creating dense debris fields.
“Nobody would survive an action like that — no satellite, either Chinese or Russian and American or European,” Traut said. “If somebody calculates rationally, nobody would employ such a weapon in space.”
Deploying a nuclear weapon in space would also be counter to the United Nations’ Outer Space Treaty of 1967, Traut said, given that it bans the installation of weapons of mass destruction in orbit.
Should Russia lash out in space and knock out commercial satellites, then expect an economic hit from banking to energy and costing trillions of dollars, said Ludwig Möller, the director of the European Space Policy Institute.
Germany officially opened its space command last year, with France and the United Kingdom doing the same as part of efforts to start building a credible defense of both government and commercial infrastructure in orbit.
While the likes of China and India are fast advancing their space technology, Russia’s brutal war on Ukraine and its willingness to do military aerospace deals with sanctioned states such as North Korea and Iran make it a pressing threat.
However, officials in Washington have been keen to make clear there is no imminent threat from space despite the intelligence.
“Though Russia’s pursuit of this particular capability is troubling, there is no immediate threat to anyone’s safety,” White House adviser John Kirby said. “We are not talking about a weapon that can be used to attack human beings or cause physical destruction here on Earth.”
