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DUBLIN — Leo Varadkar’s surprise decision to quit as Irish prime minister stunned his party and government partners — but shock has quickly given way to a defiant determination to cling to power under an energized new chief.
While Sinn Féin Leader Mary Lou McDonald and other opposition parties are demanding an early general election to clear the political air, the three-party coalition government — which has proved surprisingly stable since 2020 — vows to serve its full five-year term.
Rattled nerves in Leinster House, the parliament building, have been calmed by the speedier-than-expected elevation of Simon Harris to succeed Varadkar as Fine Gael party chief.
With no rival candidate in the field, the 37-year-old Harris is poised to become the country’s youngest-ever Taoiseach — the official Gaelic office title meaning “chief” — when lawmakers return to Leinster House April 9 following an Easter recess that starts Friday.
While Harris won’t be officially sworn in until Monday when the nomination period closes, his ability to win endorsements from a majority of Fine Gael lawmakers within the opening hours appears to have given him an overwhelming and unassailable lead over any other potential challenger.
Yet keeping the government going is not a matter for Fine Gael alone. Lawmakers in all three government parties told POLITICO they give credit to Foreign Minister Micheál Martin of Fianna Fáil for calming what otherwise could have become a government-shattering crisis.
Martin, the Fianna Fáil leader, has spent years quelling rebellion within his own party ranks from rebels who never wanted to go into government with their age-old rivals, Fine Gael, and seek a clean break well in advance of any election. Now, Martin is expressing confidence that their center-ground partnership can last right up to the latest legal date for an election, March 2025.
That infuriates Sinn Féin, the Irish republican party that has led every opinion poll since winning the most votes in the 2020 general election but failing to form a government because it couldn’t woo a coalition partner. McDonald insists it’s undemocratic now for the government to switch leaders without winning a fresh mandate from voters.
No lectures on democracy from Sinn Féin
But Martin — who served as Taoiseach for the first half of the current government’s term before giving way to Varadkar as part of their parties’ unprecedented 2020 power-sharing deal — said he won’t take any lecturing on democracy from Sinn Féin. He pointed out that McDonald’s party evolved from the outlawed Provisional Irish Republican Army and has changed leaders only once in four decades, when she became Gerry Adams’ hand-picked successor in 2018.
Martin’s determination to hold back the republicans’ electoral challenge as long as possible was illustrated in his final pre-recess verbal sparring match with Sinn Féin’s deputy leader, Pearse Doherty.
“You’re running scared of the people. This government’s time is up!” Doherty thundered from across the chamber. “The Taoiseach has thrown in the towel. He has said he is not up for the job. None of youse are up for the job. What the public need is change!”
Martin, 63, shot back that Sinn Féin wasn’t ready to govern. He said his agreed program for government with Fine Gael didn’t depend on who Fine Gael’s leader was — and the government pact didn’t expire until March 2025.
“I’ve fought many more general elections than you have,” Martin, a minister in five governments since 1997, told the 46-year-old Doherty. “I’ve never been afraid of an election. So don’t be lecturing me about elections, please.”
As the possibility of a snap general election recedes, all parties are shifting focus back to the immediate challenge of competing for seats in the European Parliament and on local councils nationwide on June 7.
Sinn Féin expects to do well versus the government parties — but the strength of its showing will either fire, or deflate, McDonald’s oft-stated ambition to forge a Sinn Féin-led government strong enough to exclude both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael from power. One of those parties has led every single government since Ireland’s independence from Britain a century ago.
Many grassroots members of Fianna Fáil are open to negotiating a potential coalition with Sinn Féin, rather than Fine Gael, following the next election — a position at odds with that of Martin and one of his potential successors, Jack Chambers.
Sinn Féin on top
POLITICO’s Poll of Polls for Ireland puts Sinn Féin on top nationally with 28 percent support, several points below its 2023 peak. Its base appears to be weakening among right-wing nationalists who dislike Sinn Féin’s support for immigration.
The current combination of Fine Gael (20 percent), Fianna Fáil (18 percent) and the third coalition party, the Greens (4 percent), retains a still-plausible path to attaining a post-2025 parliamentary majority. Their coalition already receives extra support from rural independent politicians, who constitute a strong force in Irish politics and broadly dislike Sinn Féin’s socialist posture.
A senior Fine Gael lawmaker told POLITICO that Varadkar’s resignation could prove key to reviving the party’s electoral fortunes in time for June’s double poll.
The lawmaker, speaking on the condition he wouldn’t be identified because, said: “I’ve long been a friend and supporter to Leo and don’t want to hit a good man when he’s down — but it’s been clear for a good while that his eye’s been off the ball and his heart hasn’t been in the job like before. As a party we’ve sounded out of touch. New blood at the top with more disciplined messaging is exactly what we need now.”
Fine Gael’s chairman, Alan Dillon, said Varadkar’s resignation “caught everyone off guard” but the expected the rise of Harris would allow the party to recover quickly from an event he compared to “an earthquake.”
He thinks Fine Gael’s April 6 annual party conference at the university in Galway on Ireland’s west coast will provide an ideal platform for the new leader to win back voters.
“I’m confident that this government can be re-elected whenever the next election is called and Fine Gael under a new leadership can gain seats and lead the government in a historic fourth term,” Dillon said, referring to the party’s position running governments since 2011, its longest uninterrupted time in power. “That’s achievable. A new leader will bring new energy.”
