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LONDON — In 2015, it was Donald Trump who took aim at the U.K. capital as a place where “police are afraid for their own lives,” sparking national outrage.
Now, it’s a homegrown party amping up fear of crime in London.
The Conservatives posted a campaign social media video claiming London was “teetering on the brink of chaos … gripped by the tendrils of rising crime” on the watch of Labour Mayor Sadiq Khan.
With the party staring down the barrel of defeat in the general election due later this year, could the Tories be stealing from the Trump playbook to turn their dismal poll ratings around?
Featuring heavy overtones of a Batman movie, the video posted to X (formally Twitter) is composed of clips shot in moody black and white and an American-accented voiceover. Issued by Conservative Central Office (CCHQ), it has already been edited and re-uploaded after viewers spotted that one of the dystopian-looking scenes it depicted was of the New York subway rather than the London Tube.
Some contend the video was a joke never intended to be taken seriously, but others, including senior Conservatives, complain it posed a “dangerous” distraction from the real issues at stake in the forthcoming battle for London — the mayor is seeking re-election in a few weeks’ time.
Khan himself said the film was a sign of things to come, claiming the Conservatives will fight the impending mayoral election with “misinformation [and] lies.”
Even some supporters of Susan Hall, the Conservative candidate in the race, agree a line may have been crossed. Andrew Boff, a long-serving Conservative London Assembly Member, said: “Susan Hall has a hugely positive message, and one that is independent of the contribution of what I can only assume was an inexperienced intern at CCHQ.”
Blue lights flashing
Londoners go to the polls May 2, with Khan seeking a third term in office. Hall, a London Assembly Member was picked by the Tories to take him on after a chaotic selection race in which the presumed favorite, former No. 10 aide Daniel Korski, quit amid historic sexual assault allegations, which he denied.
The contest takes place in an atmosphere of frenzied rhetoric about Khan’s impact on London, mostly revolving around the decision to expand a tax on polluting vehicles — the Ultra-Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ) — and his supposed shortcomings in tackling violent crime. Khan also faces extra scrutiny from some quarters due to his Muslim faith.
Last month former Tory Deputy Chair Lee Anderson was kicked out of the party after he refused to apologize for saying Islamists had “got control” of Khan and he had “given our capital city away to his mates.”
Hall condemned Anderson’s comments, saying “no one should have to put up with” the “abuse” faced by the mayor.
A Tory official distanced her from this week’s controversial video, pointing out that it was produced by CCHQ, not her campaign.
Hall has issued her own hard-hitting campaign launch video, which contrasts fuzzy footage of crime and anti-ULEZ protests accompanied by angsty string music with the candidate walking through a park to a piano soundtrack promising to “listen” to Londoners.
Misfiring on all cylinders
Some Tories with experience of campaigning in London complain CCHQ’s video is detracting from what they see as genuine grievances with Khan.
One Conservative candidate facing election in London this year, granted anonymity to speak frankly, said: “I think it’s more aimed at Stevenage than Streatham — it’s talking to people who don’t live in London about the failures of London.”
The candidate said the video was “very American … it didn’t seem in the vein of decent, effect campaign stuff we’ve done in the past.” They added: “It seems that our campaign team is adamant we’re going to go down swinging with the greatest hits.”
Jo Tanner, director of the advocacy firm APCO and comms adviser to Boris Johnson when he was London mayor, said it was “bizarre” the Tories appear unable to “tap into the unhappiness that’s out there and the frustration that London isn’t the city it could be.”
She added that the party needed to be careful not to “devalue” limited access to voters’ attention when campaigners are already battling conspiracy theories and deepfakes.
A senior Conservative MP accused the video’s makers of “running down” London, adding: “You’ve got to be really careful. You’re not going to encourage people to invest in London if you start saying this is Gotham City.”
Thomas Corbett-Dillon, whose firm Westminster Digital made campaign videos for Tory MPs in 2019, said: “The American influence has been creeping in for a while, particularly with MPs. We were the first people to ever make a presidential-style video for an MP — they’d never done that before.”
Corbett-Dillon, now a Trump-supporting Fox News contributor in the U.S, said of the video: “They’re trying to replicate the American Trump style, but they just don’t get it … It is a last desperate attempt of a party heading towards utter destruction.”
But another Conservative-supporting strategist played down the impact of the video — saying many voters simply won’t have seen it. “All the parties are spending so much on social, but who’s actually listening?” they asked. “We often only read about it in the political media and by then it’s already happened, people have moved on.”
Khan is holds a 25-point lead over Hall in the polls and is overwhelming favorite to be re-elected mayor — despite leaked internal research suggesting he will be hit hard by the introduction of voter ID checks, and a change to the voting system to first-past-the-post. This will mean left-leaning voters can no longer form one bloc that coalesces behind Khan after smaller parties are knocked out of the running.
A member of the Khan campaign team insisted the polls were “way out” and “it will be a close and hard-fought campaign.”
They compared the video to the mayoral campaign of 2016, in which the Tories were accused of seeking to exploit Khan’s Muslim faith and of sowing racial disharmony with leaflets targeted at the British Indian community claiming Khan would tax family heirlooms such as jewelry.
In that campaign, Conservative candidate Zac Goldsmith—since elevated to the House of Lords—often drew attention to Khan’s faith and tried to link him to extremists. Senior Tories including then-Prime Minister David Cameron made similar statements in an attempt to swing the mayoral election in Goldsmith’s favor.
Following the election, which Khan won with 56.8% of second-round votes, several Muslims within the Conservative Party criticized the campaign, as did other senior Tories, which Goldsmith then denied was racist.
A Conservative Party spokesman declined to comment on the thinking behind the latest video.
