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LISBON — Just under 50 years after the Carnation Revolution — the uprising that led to the end of the authoritarian Estado Novo dictatorship — Portugal’s far right is once again set to play a decisive role in the country’s political future.
Sunday’s national elections were won by the center-right Democratic Alliance coalition, but the group and its allied parties failed to secure a governing majority of seats in the parliament. So too did outgoing Prime Minister António Costa‘s Socialist Party, which conceded the election admitting that it would be unable to secure the seats needed to form a governing alliance with the far left.
The inconclusive results create an atmosphere in which the far-right Chega party is poised to wield a remarkable amount of power. The anti-establishment group, which has appropriated the Estado Novo’s “God, country, family and work” slogan, has consolidated itself as Portugal’s third-largest political force and now controls at least 48 of the 230 seats in the parliament.
While all of the other parties in the hemicycle have vowed not to work with the far-right party, it’s unclear how legislation will get passed without it. On Sunday, Pedro Nuno Santos, Costa’s successor as socialist leader, said he would not block Democratic Alliance leader Luís Montenegro’s bid to form a government, but that he also won’t help him pass bills.
That raises questions about Portugal’s governability. If the center right can’t get support from across the aisle, how long will it be able to rebuff an alliance with Chega, which campaigned on an anti-corruption platform? And how long can the parliament realistically exclude a group that was backed by nearly one in 10 eligible voters?
The waiting game
The Portuguese constitution establishes that six months must pass before new elections are called, and those can only be held 55 days after that point. Given a fresh parliament is therefore impossible before mid-November, the country must find a way to make do with the fractured hemicycle in the meantime.
Work on that task begins this week, as President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa meets with the leaders of all the parties that have won seats in parliament before asking the candidate with the greatest shot at forming a government to become prime minister.
Barring major surprises, Montenegro and his cabinet will be sworn in next month, but what will happen afterward is anyone’s guess. Costa’s government was able to pass a 2024 budget right before the socialist leader resigned in the wake of an influence-peddling probe last year, but it’s unclear if the center right will want to keep it, or attempt to amend it.
If Montenegro opts to work with the existing budget, his minority government could have breathing room to operate until October when the draft budget for 2025 must be submitted to the parliament. Unless the socialists are willing to negotiate the text on a piecemeal basis, it’s difficult to see how Montenegro can get it approved without the far right’s support.
A rejection of the budget would likely trigger fresh elections, as happened in 2021, when far-left parties refused to support Costa’s bill. Voters in that snap vote expressed their desire for stability by giving the socialists a majority of seats in the parliament, and Montenegro may be aiming for a similar outcome by doing his best to govern during this year and asking electors to give him real power the next time elections are held.
Meanwhile, Santos will use the socialists’ time in the opposition to consolidate his power within the party.
After eight years in which everything centered on Costa, Santos — who is seen as the voice of the party’s more left-wing forces — is expected to replace the outgoing prime minister’s loyalists with his own lieutenants and recast the socialists as the real alternative to a right-wing government that can’t govern.
Awkward celebrations
Beyond Portugal’s borders, Sunday’s defeat bodes poorly for Europe’s social democrats. Having lost Lisbon, the socialists now govern in just four of the EU’s 27 member countries.
As recently as the group’s party conference last month, the Iberian Peninsula was held up as a bulwark of socialist rule. With Portugal swinging right, many will wonder how long Pedro Sánchez’s fragile minority government in neighboring Spain can also hold on.
On the other hand, given that Montenegro appears set to become prime minister with just a few thousand votes more than his social democratic rivals, it’s unclear how much the European People’s Party (EPP) can celebrate the technical win.
There was a curious lack of reactions to the victory across the bloc; on Monday morning, neither EPP president Manfred Weber nor the party’s lead candidate, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, had congratulated Montenegro.
In contrast, far-right figures from across the bloc celebrated Chega’s victory, with groups like Spain’s Vox party hailing the results as a major advance in the face of an expired bipartisan model. Like-minded groups are expected to point to the party’s success to rally supporters ahead of June’s European Parliament elections.
The shadow of a resurgent far right at home and abroad will undoubtedly hang over next month’s Carnation Revolution commemorations.
Prior to the traditional parade in Lisbon, in which participants carry the red flowers that have become a symbol of Portugal’s transition to democracy, parliament is scheduled to hold its traditional special session to mark the anniversary of the uprising.
Like every year, the event is expected to close with lawmakers repeating the revolution’s slogan: Fascismo nunca mais (“Fascism never again”).
It will make for an awkward cry in a hemicycle occupied by so many who are openly nostalgic for the good old days of the authoritarian regime.
