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This weekend, Yulia Navalnaya watched as Vladimir Putin, the dictator who imprisoned and some argue killed her husband Alexei, was again “elected” Russia’s president.
Navalnaya announced just weeks ago that she is taking over her husband’s role as the head of a top Russian opposition group. But she watched the voting from exile, because that is where most of Putin’s critics must now live to avoid arrest or death.
Navalnaya deserves credit for pursuing the dream of a true post-Putin Russian democracy. But count me among the pessimists on whether she’ll achieve her goal.
The ugly truth is that opposition movements fighting dictatorships — especially those forced into exile — have rarely succeeded in the post-Cold War era. The regimes they wish to oust have become more technologically sophisticated, better coordinated and less susceptible to international pressure.
While dictators sometimes allow limited opposition inside a country, or create fake opposition groups, many often force dissenters into exile. That distance means dissidents can operate more freely, but it can also weaken them.
For now Russia’s opposition-in-exile is still able to help galvanize citizens at home. On Sunday, in a symbolic show of dissent backed by an array of opposition groups, Russians unhappy with Putin showed up in throngs at polling stations just as the clock hit noon across the country’s many time zones.
Navalnaya and her late husband’s team are not new to this game, but the challenges they face are likely to grow.
Pro-democracy types don’t like to admit that oppositions-in-exile often falter, fail or lose relevance. But when I asked several activists, analysts and others how Navalnaya (who declined an interview) could beat the odds, they had plenty of advice on pitfalls to avoid.
Above all, keep your opposition movement united.
Opposition groups frequently disagree on tactics, strategies, and ideology — not to mention who takes the lead.
They may spend more energy fighting each other than the regime they want to oust, making them less effective.
When protests broke out across Iran in late 2022 over the death of a young woman whom authorities alleged wasn’t following their Islamic dress code, longstanding infighting among Iranian opposition activists, many of them based outside Iran, grew worse. An attempt during this time to unite leading Iranian exiles, including former Iranian crown prince Reza Pahlavi, quickly collapsed.
There are multiple Russian opposition factions abroad, and they haven’t always gotten along.
Navalnaya could help align the groups if she can “go beyond the old grudges,” said Garry Kasparov, the former chess champion and another Russian opposition leader in exile. He didn’t give examples, but some analysts say avoiding social media spats is a start.
Stay in touch with the people back home.
The longer opposition activists are outside a country, the greater the danger they will not reflect what people in the country actually want.
The exiles may call for more political rights while people back home are more concerned about getting their next meal. The exiles may urge the people inside to rise up, but those people are the ones facing the regime’s guns.
And it’s not easy to stay connected. Regimes often restrict internet and phone access.
Many Cuban opposition activists outside the country have for decades successfully demanded a hardline U.S. position toward Havana. But because of a lack of reliable polling, it’s not clear if Cubans on the ground support that stance.
Meanwhile, Cuba’s communist government blames the exiled opposition in part for the country’s woes. “They have succeeded in making impossible the life of many of the people that they supposedly are defending,” senior Cuban official Johana Tablada told me.
Alexei Navalny was poisoned in 2020 and traveled to Germany for treatment. But he returned to Russia, despite the likelihood of prison. Many analysts argue he feared being less effective in exile.
While in detention, Navalny was still able to share messages with the world through his aides, who are now largely outside Russia. There are fears that now that the election is over, the Kremlin may crack down further on that team’s ability to reach Russians through YouTube and other means.
Exploit the little cracks as well as the big ones.
To bring down a dictator, it sometimes helps to look elsewhere.
Opposition groups can go after enabling oligarchs, political allies or the children reaping the ruler’s patronage. But there’s also the corrupt mayor in a far-flung province, the abusive police officer in the commercial stronghold, and the officials who keep building dams the country doesn’t need.
Shining a light on these smaller problems could lead to internal revolts that snowball.
Navalnaya’s group has long focused heavily on anti-corruption. It’s a topic that resonates with ordinary Russians, even if it is not as sexy for world leaders who want to meet you and back your broader cause of ousting a dictator.
“No one is going to invite you to an international conference to talk about the dump that’s being built on the outskirts of Novosibirsk, right? They’re going to bring you there to talk about how evil Putin is,” said Dylan Myles-Primakoff of the National Endowment for Democracy.
Watch your back.
Navalnaya is obviously aware of the danger of opposing Putin, even if she’s far from Russia. Putin’s critics have a habit of dying all over the world.
Other autocracies — from Iran to Rwanda — are accused of kidnapping and killing beyond their borders, too, as well as harassing relatives dissidents left behind.
Last year, Nicaragua’s Daniel Ortega sent 222 opposition leaders he’d imprisoned to the United States. The group has since struggled to unite. Many were from poorer parts of Nicaragua, speak little English, and are still searching for jobs, leaving little time for politics.
Felix Maradiaga suspects the Ortega regime leaked a private phone call in which he criticized some elements of the exiled opposition, leading to tensions with fellow dissidents.
“It was a dirty move by the regime,” Maradiaga said.
Don’t count too much on the West.
The United States and its European allies talk a big game about promoting democracy. At times they impose sanctions on adversarial dictatorships. In rare instances, they’ve rolled in with the tanks.
But the West’s support is conditional.
After debacles in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. has little appetite for direct military intervention. And Western nations avoid pressuring economic powerhouses like China too much on democracy. Many Western leaders also will prioritize stability over change.
I recently asked leaders of an opposition network called the World Liberty Congress whether America was a reliable partner. It was hard to get a direct answer. But Masih Alinejad, a prominent opponent of the Iranian regime, put it most succinctly: “We’re not asking the American government, Washington, D.C., European governments to save us. We want them to stop saving our oppressors.”
Navalnaya has slammed Putin’s war on Ukraine and urged the world not to recognize his reelection.
“Unfortunately, too many people in the West still see him as a legitimate political leader, argue about his ideology and look for political logic in his actions,” she wrote in The Washington Post last week. “Putin is not a politician, he’s a gangster.”
Be ready for the dictatorship’s fall — and its return.
You never know what will spark a dictator’s downfall.
The Arab Spring protests in the Middle East began in late 2010 in Tunisia when a street vendor harassed by police set himself on fire. Some exiled opposition activists returned with hopes of establishing more representative governments. But they didn’t agree on what that meant, especially when it came to the role of Islam.
More than a decade later, the Arab Spring movements can’t point to any real democratic victories. Some uprisings were crushed.
Some countries, including Tunisia, experienced brief democracies that, to the chagrin of activists, were ultimately replaced by new autocracies.
Opposition activists in exile need to constantly be prepared with platforms and networks — ideally of people inside the country — to present as a vision for the future.
They also need to be patient. Some may not live to see a better future in their native lands.
In Russia, Putin has no true rival or clear heir, making the post-Putin world hard to predict.
Navalnaya seems determined to forge ahead.
“I never wanted to be a politician, I never wanted to speak from the rostrum or write for international media,” she wrote in the Post. “But Putin left me no other choice.
