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The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) expects an increased “risk of localized interethnic violence during 2024” in the Western Balkans, according to an annual assessment released Monday.
The report says nationalist Balkan leaders are “likely to exacerbate tension for their political advantage” while external actors threaten to “reinforce and exploit ethnic differences” to maintain their influence on the region and “thwart” the integration of Western Balkan countries into EU or Euro-Atlantic institutions.
The report mentions clashes between Serb nationalists and Kosovar police in the north of Kosovo last year that led to deaths and injuries, including injuries to NATO peacekeepers.
The ODNI sees another ethnic violence threat in pro-Russia Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik, who is taking “provocative steps to neutralize international oversight in Bosnia and secure de-facto secession” for Republika Srpska, Bosnia’s Serb-dominated entity.
Dodik has repeatedly threatened to secede from Bosnia-Herzegovina, which is expected to open membership talks with the EU. While declaring the European path “important,” he visited both Russia and Belarus just last month.
The ODNI expects this behavior may “prompt leaders of the Bosniak (Bosnian Muslim) population to bolster their own capacity to protect their interests and possibly lead to violent conflicts that could overwhelm peacekeeping forces.”
The Director of National Intelligence oversees the U.S. intelligence community and serves as principal adviser on intelligence issues to U.S. President Joe Biden.
