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LONDON — Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has grown wearily accustomed to calls for more defense spending from within his U.K. Conservative Party.
But as the PM embarks on a rare overseas trip amidst a seismic year in British politics, he’s likely to hear the same message from one of the U.K.’s most prominent allies.
Sunak visits Germany for the first time as prime minister Tuesday, with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz expected to seek clear assurances on British defense spending after decades of real-terms cuts.
Only two years ago it would have been unthinkable that Germany might be in a position to push Britain on the extent of its military outlay.
But following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Berlin is at last set to meet its NATO target to spend 2 percent of GDP on defense. Germany’s weapons commitments to the war are now almost twice the size of Britain’s, and Scholz has made a habit in recent months of urging his European neighbors to similarly ramp up their contributions to the continent’s firepower.
For his part, Sunak has a stated aspiration to boost U.K. defense spending to 2.5 percent of GDP — a £9 billion-a-year increase on current levels — but has set out no real plan for how or when that might happen.
That vagueness appears to be frustrating Britain’s allies, just as as it is many of Sunak’s own MPs — including prominent members of his Cabinet.
A senior official in the German government told POLITICO “there does not seem to be any plan to increase [U.K.] defense spending at all,” noting that “it has stayed the same for some time.”
“We understand about the fiscal constraints the U.K. has, but we all have the same fiscal constraints,” the official added.
“If the U.K. still wants to have a leading part in European security then it needs to increase its spending.
“The chancellor [Scholz] has said this publicly in the past, referring to ‘our partners’. I am sure this will be his message to Sunak.”
Another senior German official stressed there would be no lectures from Scholz, however, insisting that Berlin respects Sunak’s commitment to achieving his 2.5 percent goal.
A spokesperson for Scholz told POLITICO: “Germany appreciates the strong British support to Ukraine. We value all their contributions.”
From Warsaw to Berlin
Ahead of his trip to Berlin Sunak will fly to Warsaw for defense talks with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, before traveling to Germany later in the day.
Under pressure both at home and abroad, the British PM will use the two-day tour to make multiple defense-related announcements.
No. 10 Downing Street said Monday evening that the U.K. would now be sending £3 billion in military support to Ukraine this year — a £500 million increase on previously-announced funds. The extra cash will be spent on much-need ammunition and air defense systems for Ukraine.
“Ukraine’s armed forces continue to fight bravely, but they need our support — and they need it now,” Sunak said. “The United Kingdom will always play its part at the forefront of European security.”
Sunak would certainly bristle at any suggestion from Berlin that Britain is not pulling its weight.
The U.K. has long been Europe’s leading military power, while Germany’s armed forces were in a parlous state before Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine — and remain so, despite the increase in spending.
“Unfortunately, I have to say that the Bundeswehr still has too little of everything,” Eva Högl, Germany’s parliamentary commissioner for the armed forces, said last month. “There is a lack of ammunition, spare parts and radio equipment. There is still a lack of tanks, ships and airplanes.”
A U.K. official said any overt pressure from Scholz would “raise eyebrows” in London, observing that while many in Westminster accept the need to boost U.K. defense investment, the Germans “also need to pull their socks up.”
“And they’ve only recently located their socks,” the official added drily.
A recent U.K. diplomatic briefing seen by POLITICO notes Berlin had been slow to react to the Ukraine invasion, but had since upped its efforts.
The document made clear that Britain does not see Scholz as a prominent leader in the West’s fight against Putin.
Changing nation
But Germany now has ambitions to become NATO’s leading military power in Europe, after Scholz announced a historic national rearmament in the weeks after Russia’s 2022 invasion. After a slow start, Germany is now Europe’s biggest contributor of aid to Ukraine.
The German chancellor said at the Munich Security Conference in February that “we Europeans need to do much more for our security, now and in the future,” calling on other countries to match Germany’s spending on aid for Ukraine.
It is a sentiment which has been supercharged by the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House.
Most observers believe a second Trump presidency would lead to greater U.S. isolationism and has prompted European leaders to reconsider collective European security without the help of Washington.
Michael Roth, chairman of the German parliament’s foreign committee, said that in such circumstances it was “high time” Sunak visited Berlin.
POLITICO reported in February that Sunak’s apparent reluctance to visit the EU’s largest economy — this week’s visit will be the first of his 18-month premiership — had caused irritation among Scholz’s top team.
“It is high time for Prime Minister Sunak to come to Berlin. There is much to discuss,” Roth told POLITICO.
“In these dangerous times, we would need a strong and united United Kingdom to take on more responsibility for security and peace in Europe.”
“The months’-long blockade of the aid package for Ukraine in the U.S. Congress has shown that Europe will largely be on its own in the event of another Trump presidency.”
Sunak’s trip comes days after the U.S. Congress finally passed a $60 billion aid package for Ukraine, after months of delays caused by internal political wrangling.
A No. 10 official said the U.S. had “led the way in relation to providing aid to Ukraine,” adding: “It’s incumbent on Europe to show it’s stepping up.”
Blue on blue
Sunak remains under substantial pressure back home to invest in Britain’s shrinking military in the face of growing geopolitical instability.
Sunak and his Chancellor Jeremy Hunt ruled out any real-terms boost to annual defense spending in their past two fiscal statements, instead prioritizing pre-election tax cuts.
This drew anger from some Conservative backbenchers, including former Defense Secretary Ben Wallace. He complained in a Telegraph op-ed that the U.K. Ministry of Defence had suffered “stop-start” funding in recent years and accused Hunt of “artificially inflating the defense budget.”
A U.K. Ministry of Defence spokesperson insisted Britain already has “the defensive capabilities and international alliances in place to protect the U.K.” but added: “We have been clear that we need to spend more on defense in a more dangerous and contested world.”
Tory MP Tobias Ellwood, another former defense minister, told POLITICO: “There is a ‘1937’ feel to the world right now,” and that Britain should boost defense spending to 3 percent of GDP over the coming years.
But he warned that simply increasing the military budget alone will not be enough.
“The Ministry of Defence (MoD) does not have a good track record of spending money wisely.” Ellwood warned. “If we simply throw that money at the MoD now, it would be wasted.
“The questions that need to be answered are — ‘what are the threats coming over the horizon and how do you craft your defense posture accordingly, considering we are a part of NATO?’”
