Posted by 
Humza Yousaf, Scotland’s first minister, has suddenly terminated the Bute House agreement, the pact between the Scottish National Party and the Scottish Greens, which ensured a majority for the Scottish government in the Scottish parliament.
By ending their deal, Yousaf removed two Scottish Greens as government ministers. As a result, the SNP must now continue as a minority government. The party has only 63 members of the Scottish parliament out of the 129 sitting members, leaving it two seats shy of a majority.
It should be noted, however, that the Scottish parliamentary system was designed to be fragmented in this way. The idea was to provide a less confrontational style of politics and part of that goal was an electoral system that was expected to produce coalitions, minority administrations and governments that would need to sign inter-party agreements (such as the Bute House agreement).
Indeed, Scotland has witnessed two formal coalitions, two periods of SNP minority government (2007-11 and 2016-21), one SNP majority (2011-16) before having this Bute House agreement, a more informal coalition, from 2021. So, this could be a case of back to the future.
However, there are always political ramifications when ending inter-party deals. That was immediately the case for Yousaf. He scrapped the deal on April 24 – a Wednesday and therefore the day for first minister’s questions in the Scottish Parliament. So, just hours after terminating the agreement with the Scottish Greens, Yousaf was facing a very public verbal onslaught from the other opposition parties.
Shortly afterwards, the Scottish Conservative leader, Douglas Ross, has formally called for a no-confidence vote in the first minister. The Scottish Greens have confirmed their support for this motion. The Scottish Labour party also appears to have indicated support, which is unsurprising given they have polling much closer to the SNP in Scotland amid the recent turmoil.
Why an election is unlikely
However, a vote of no confidence in the first minister of Scotland does not automatically result in the downfall of the Scottish government and does not automatically trigger an election. Nor is it immediately clear that all the parties in the parliament would even support an election at this time. In fact, the party leading the charge for a no-confidence vote in the first minister, the Scottish Conservatives, are actually the ones who may have the most to lose from one. Polling clearly indicates a significant drop in support for the Conservatives. An election would very probable leave them the third-largest party, rather than the second.
A key point in all this is that this is a call for no-confidence vote in Yousaf personally, not the Scottish government. It’s not clear how he is required to respond should he lose. It may be that he would not find such a situation politically survivable and he may well have to resign – but it is not clear that he would have to.
If Yousaf does resign, the SNP, would have up to 28 days to appoint another leader, who would become the first minister. At that point, the idea of an election would be moot so there is every incentive for the SNP to make the situation work.
Scotland is not due an election until May 2026 and a snap election has never been called before. To make an unscheduled election happen, two-thirds of MSPs have to vote in favour – which of course would require a sizeable number of SNP members to be on board. Given that polls indicate a clear loss of seats for both the largest (SNP) and second-largest (Scottish Conservatives) parties, would either of them want such an election?
Yousaf’s immediate fate is unclear. There are other parties and players involved in the parliament. The Scottish Liberal Democrats have four MSPs, and there is also the sole Alba party MSP, Ash Regan. She was previously a member of the SNP, and was one of the contenders for the SNP leadership, but defected to the Alba party in October 2023. She has written to Yousaf, seeking assurances around specific policy issues before she decides on how to vote in the confidence motion.
The political mathematics of the current situation may be somewhat unclear, but the situation remains that this is a vote of no confidence aimed squarely at the first minister, rather than the whole Scottish government. Scottish Labour may seek a vote of no confidence in the government in the hope of triggering an early election, but it is in few other party’s interests to give them what they want. There could be a change of first minister, but Scotland is less likely to be going to the polls around this issue anytime soon.
Murray Leith has previously received funding from the European Union and the Scottish Government. He is a member of the Electoral Reform Society.
