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Iran is calibrating its plans for a major retaliatory strike against Israel to send a message — but not spark a regional war that compels Washington to respond, the U.S. assesses.
Biden administration officials judge that Iran is planning a larger-than-usual aerial attack on Israel in the coming days, one that will likely feature a mix of missiles and drone strikes, said two U.S. officials who were granted anonymity to detail sensitive discussions.
Neither official said they were fully confident Iran will succeed in striking Israel in a way that doesn’t prompt the U.S. to respond militarily, as any attack increases the risk of a greater conflagration in the Middle East. But Iran doesn’t seek to expand the regional crisis further, the Biden administration has long determined, which the officials said may be weighing on Tehran’s planning.
The National Security Council declined to comment. But President Joe Biden, speaking during a Wednesday news conference, said Iran was “threatening to launch a significant attack on Israel.”
“Our commitment to Israel’s security against these threats from Iran and its proxies is ironclad,” Biden continued while alongside Japan’s prime minister. “We’re going to do all we can to protect Israel’s security.”
Iranian leaders have explicitly warned in recent days that the country would react forcefully to the deadly April 1 attack on a diplomatic facility in Damascus. Iran’s supreme leader said Israel “must and shall be punished.”
“When they attack the consulate, it is as if they have attacked our soil,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Wednesday. “The evil regime made a mistake and must be punished and it shall be.”
The Biden administration expects Iran’s response in the coming days — as early as this weekend, according to one of the U.S. officials. “We’re still in that window” for an Iranian response, said the second official. But Iran is “looking to calibrate it, so they essentially don’t overplay their hand.”
The U.S. is sending direct messages to Iran through established channels, the first U.S. official said, mainly to ensure whatever attack comes doesn’t spike tensions in the Middle East.
U.S. officials usually communicate through other parties with Iran, with whom Washington has not had formal diplomatic relations in more than 40 years. But direct communications are possible, including through Iran’s mission at the United Nations.
Nate Evans, a spokesperson for the U.S. Mission to the United Nations, said his office does not discuss diplomatic conversations. Iran’s mission at the U.N. also did not immediately reply to a voicemail seeking comment. The Israeli embassy in Washington also did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken has spoken with senior officials from other countries, including Turkey, China and Saudi Arabia, this week, asking them to warn Iran against deepening the crisis, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told reporters Thursday.
“We have also engaged with European allies and partners over the past few days and urged them as well to send a clear message to Iran that escalation is not in Iran’s interest, it’s not in the region’s interest, and it’s not in the world’s interest,” Miller said.
Brett McGurk, the top Middle East official in the White House, also in recent days has spoken with leaders in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iraq, both to better prepare for what’s to come and also to pass de-escalatory messages to Iran.
In a call with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Thursday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant warned that Israel would respond to any Iranian attack. Gallant told Austin that “A direct Iranian attack will require an appropriate Israeli response against Iran,” according to a readout of the call. “The State of Israel will not tolerate an Iranian attack on its territory.”
The U.S. expects Iran to use a combination of drones and missiles for the strike, which could come from Iran proper, its proxies in the region — such as Lebanese Hezbollah, which is right on Israel’s northern border — or a mixture of both.
The officials would not detail whether Iran is planning to strike Israeli military assets or civilian targets. But the scope of the expected Iranian response will determine whether the situation spirals, experts said.
“The severity and success of this strike will likely be determinative of whether this escalates to a regional conflict. One that could include the United States,” said Mick Mulroy, a former DOD official, Marine and retired CIA officer.
