SNP In Crisis: Could Ditching His Greens Spell The End For Humza Yousaf?

His opponents have cruelly dubbed him “Humza Useless”, and in the past 48 hours Scotland’s first minister seems to have gone out of his way to prove them right.

Humza Yousaf is this weekend fighting for his political career ahead of a crucial vote of confidence which could see him ousted from office barely a year after succeeding Nicola Sturgeon as SNP leader.

His decision to dump the Greens from the Scottish government – thereby bringing an end to the Bute House Agreement struck between the two pro-independence parties – must have seemed like a good idea at the time.

Indeed, it was widely welcomed by most within the SNP, not least the party’s Westminster leader Stephen Flynn, who said Yousaf had “shown leadership in the national interest”.

But within hours, the move had backfired and thrown his leadership into crisis as the Greens – furious at how they had been treated – announced they would support a motion of no confidence in Yousaf tabled by the Scottish Tories.

In an ironic twist, that left the first minister relying on the vote of Ash Regan – who defected from the SNP to Alex Salmond’s Alba Party last year – to save his political skin.

That would be the same Ash Regan who Yousaf said was “no great loss” when she jumped ship.

She has wasted no time in naming her price. In a letter to the first minister, Regan said she wanted to see progress made towards Scottish independence and more done to defend “the rights of women and children”.

The latter point is a reference to the Scottish government’s stance hitherto on support for trans rights, a position heavily influenced by the Greens.

Speculation is mounting that Yousaf could even resign before the confidence vote takes place.

“I think there is a very high chance that he announces he’s stepping down, possibly over the weekend,” said one MSP. “I don’t think he would give up easily, but people close to him are drifting away.”

Yousaf on Friday insisted that he would not be quitting, and that he intended to fight – and win – the confidence vote.

Senior SNP figures continue to back him – at least in public – with the party’s Westminster leader Stephen Flynn insisting yesterday he would “come out fighting” to save his job.

The embattled SNP leader does still have the support of many within the party, who say he had no choice but to dump the Greens, who were planning to ballot their own members on whether to end the Bute House Agreement anyway.

One senior figure told HuffPost UK: “My overwhelming feeling at ending the coalition is relief. All we’ve been getting on the doors for months is ‘you need to get rid of the Greens’.

“We couldn’t wait four weeks for them to decide themselves whether or not to end it, and it was fairly obvious the whole thing was coming to a natural end anyway.

“People are concerned about food prices, their utility bills, their mortgages and their insurance premiums, not wood stoves and heat pumps.”

“It’s time for cool heads and deep breaths,” one SNP MP said.

“No relationship break-up is ever easy, but the reaction of the Greens has been laughable and just tells you that the continuation of the coalition was unsustainable.”

In theory, Yousaf could cling on were he to lose next week’s vote, although no one expects him to do so as his political authority would be destroyed.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar upped the ante even more yesterday by announcing that he will table a motion of no confidence in the Scottish government.

Under Holyrood’s rules, that would have the effect of forcing Yousaf to resign immediately were he to lose the vote and could even trigger a snap Holyrood election.

However, there are some within the Scottish Labour who want Yousaf to remain in place.

“Humza is so bad I’d rather keep him as I think it will be hard to get someone worse,” one insider told HuffPost UK.

With Westminster abuzz with rumours that Rishi Sunak could call a general election for early July, any stay of execution for Yousaf may only be temporary.

Senior SNP figures are now openly speculating that the party could see its number of MPs reduced to single figures in what would be a remarkable turnaround from the 48 it returned at the last election.

Were that to happen, the “men in grey kilts” would waste little time in telling Yousaf that his time is up.