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By P.K.Balachandran/Daily News
Colombo, April 9: The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), helmed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has set itself a target of getting 370 of the 543 seats in the lower house of parliament (Lok Sabha) which will be up for grabs in the April-June elections. This is 67 seats more than what it has presently. The BJP’s other goal is to get 400 seats for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which it heads. This means that it is aiming at 48 more seats over all.
From one angle, it is a tall order. But the BJP and its supremo are confident because they have patented the formula to win elections, which is there for all to see in North, Central and Western India, which account for the bulk of the seats in the Lok Sabha. If this formula is tweaked with some regionalism to fit the South, it could deliver the extra seats to get 400.
The formula is a potent mixture of Hindu nationalism (aka Hindutva), an assertive pan-Indian nationalism in foreign relations; economic success (India is now the world’s third largest economy); and efficient delivery on pro-poor welfare schemes. On top of it all, the BJP has any army of efficient party cadre backed by the Rastriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS) or National Volunteer Organisation.
Key Obstacle
This BJP’s formula has gone down well in particular socio-political and historical milieus, but not in other settings. For example, South India has not been a happy hunting ground for Hindutva, generally speaking. Though the masses in the South are devout Hindus, weaponization of Hinduism does not appeal to them. Their historical experiences vis-à-vis non-Hindus have not been marked by violent conflicts as they have been in the case of the peoples of the North. The North had seen medieval Muslim invasions and the partition of India in 1947, but not the South.
However, it must be said that the various Southern States are not exactly the same. In Tamil Nadu, Tamil linguistic and Dravidian sub-nationalism are entrenched, but sub-nationalisms are not so strong in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Kerala. Tamil Nadu has been a pioneer in anti-caste and secular political theology, while such movements have been less influential in the other South Indian States. Tamil Nadu had a secessionist movement based on Tamil nationalism, which petered out in 1962. But the rest of the South had no such movement.
The Southern States differ in inter-religious relations too. Inter-religious conflicts have occurred in parts of Kerala, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh in areas with sizeable Muslim or Christian populations. But such conflicts have been few and far between in Tamil Nadu.
While the BJP has tasted success in Karnataka, has a presence in Andhra Pradesh, and has a future in Kerala, it finds itself blocked in Tamil Nadu. Therefore, this time round, the BJP is making a determined effort to break the Tamil Nadu barrier.
While the Congress, with its secular and moderate image, has been able find a foothold in Tamil Nadu with a steady 20% share of the vote, other All-India parties, especially the BJP, have not been able to get a foothold there.
However, the BJP under Modi is a different kettle of fish. It feels that it has pan-India sway, the organizational wherewithal, humongous financial resources and political chutzpah to break into Tamil Nadu. It has tied up with some Dravidian parties hoping to get a few seats in the State Assembly and parliament to begin with.
In the 2019 parliamentary elections, the BJP tied up with the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), one of the two major Dravidian parties. But it came a cropper winning only 3% of the vote and no seat. The DMK-Congress alliance won the 2019 elections taking 38 of the 39 seats.
Subsequently, the AIADMK walked out of the alliance when it found that the voters indicated that its Dravidian ideology did not mix well with BJP’s Hindutva.
For the April 2024 elections, the BJP has tied up principally with the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK).The PMK is a Dravidian party but its base is narrow, both caste and region-wise.
According to the India TV-CNX pre-election survey, the DMK will get 20 out of 40 seats in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, Congress 6, AIADMK 4 and BJP 5. It remains to be seen if this prediction comes true or not.
The BJP has been working very hard in Tamil Nadu for months under the leadership of its forceful State President K.Annamalai, a former police officer. Unlike his predecessors, Annamalai hit the road on a “Padayatra” (march) exposing high corruption in the DMK administration.
According to him, one third of cabinet ministers are facing corruption cases. On April 14 last year, Annamalai gave a long list of assets totally worth INR 1.34 lakh crore (INR 1.34 trillion) owned by key DMK leaders including Chief Minister MK Stalin’s son and Sports Minister Udhayanidhi Stalin and other ministers including Durai Murugan, EV Velu, K Ponmudy, V Senthil Balaji, and former Union Minister S Jagathrakshakan.
Pointing out that a family of four was hacked to death by a gang of drunkards, Annamalai said that women across the State were in a tight spot because their husbands were spending most of their earnings on liquor. Annamalai is also urging the Tamils to come out of the confines of their regional and linguistic cocoon and join the national mainstream as enunciated by Narendra Modi.
Recently, he used the Right to Information Act to get documents to show that the Congress Prime Minister Indira Gandhi had callously given away Katchathivu island to Sri Lanka in 1974 causing harm to Tamil Nadu fishermen who were being arrested by the Sri Lankan navy for fishing around Katchathivu that should have been in Indian waters.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Foreign Minister S.Jaishankar publicised this charge, with the latter saying that the DMK was complicit in the deal with Sri Lanka.
Innovative Methods
Modi is using innovative methods to entice the Tamils. He has made several visits to Tamil Nadu in quick succession. He came for an interview to the popular Tamil TV channel Thanthi TV in a Tamil style sarong called “Veshti”. Modi said that his connection with Tamil Nadu was “beyond electoral considerations.”
Since February, Modi has visited Tamil Nadu at least five times during which he spoke evocatively about his love for the State. He visited Hindu temples at Srirangam and Rameswaram before he installed idols in the new Rama temple in Ayodhya.
In his speeches in Tamil Nadu Modi would frequently quote from the ancient Tamil text, “Thirukkural”. In the new Parliament in New Delhi, he installed a “Sengol”, the symbol of Tamil royalty during the rule of the Cholas.
The BJP has also been honouring people from the depressed castes to make the party acceptable to them. He made the famous music director Ilayaraja, who is a Dalit, a member of the Rajya Sabha, the Upper House of parliament. He gave Bharat Ratna award, India’s top most award, to the renowned Tamil agricultural scientist Dr.M.S.Swaminathan.
To emphase the religio-cultural links between the Tamils and the north-Indian religious centre of Kasi (Benaras), he took a train full of poor non-Brahmin Tamils on a visit to Kasi.
But it remains to be seen if such PR exercises will sway the Tamil voters, who are moored in a different politico-cultural tradition. It is also not yet clear if the Tamils will shed their reservations about the BJP’s centralizing agenda as they have been in the forefront of the struggle for States’ rights and federalism.
The BJP has a ready-made base in Tamil Nadu among the Brahmins. But Brahmins are only 2% of the population in Tamil Nadu. Its Hindutva could get traction in a few constituencies where there has been a long-standing conflict between the Hindus and the minorities as in Coimbatore and Kanyakumari. But the ground in other places is not very hospitable.
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