Posted by 
Full disclosure: I was among those who was OK with the notion of moving out Ceci at this past trade deadline, believing that the Oilers might well be better served by trading away Ceci for a stronger puck-mover, if such a player could be found. There were credible rumours that Ceci had been included in an offer to Calgary for Chris Tanev, so it evidently wasn’t just fans and pundits who were hoping for an upgrade.
In our defence, Ceci did struggle through a rough second half of the 2023-24 season. In a nutshell, he was leaking too many Grade A shots and goals against to make up for his lack of offensive production. But in the final weeks of the season he showed signs of getting his game back together.
And here Ceci is four games into the 2024 playoffs and, in the most important moment of the season, he’s again reliably getting the job done at even strength and on the penalty kill.
He’s almost always on the right side of his own check. He’s fighting through a ferocious L.A. forecheck and moving the puck well enough. He’s not making many poor reads and is instead breaking up many Kings plays. He’s making himself so useful that his coach Kris Knoblauch is trusting him with major ice time.
Ceci is leading the team at even strength ice-time per game, just ahead of his defensive partner Darnell Nurse, 18:03 to 18:09, and he’s fourth on the team for penalty kill time-on-ice per game, behind Vincent Desharnais, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Mattias Ekholm, whom I’ll suggest is the most reliable playoff d-man for the Oilers based on his work so far this year and in the 2023 playoffs when he was super solid.
But Ceci was solid in his first two playoff seasons here, 2022 and 2023, and he’s been solid this year as well. At the Cult of Hockey we measure the even strength impact of each Oilers player through video review. We study, count and tabulate their contributions to Grade A shots for and mistakes on Grade A shots against.
If a defenceman is helping create as many Grade A shots for as he makes mistakes on Grade A shots against, he’s crushing it, as Evan Bouchard is doing so far in these 2024 playoffs. But Bouchard wasn’t strong in this same category last year. Darnell Nurse has had his struggles three straight seasons in this same category, though he excelled in the short 2021 playoffs (as an aside, Nurse is the only Oilers d-man still with the team from those 2021 playoffs).
Ceci’s own individual plus-minus on Grade A shots has been solid for someone who plays against such tough competition. Anything north of -0.70 per 15 minutes ES for a d-man regularly playing heavy minutes against tough competition is acceptable, and anything north of -0.50 per 15 is solid. By that standard Ceci has been solid in each of the last four playoff seasons.
Of course, the full story of this 2024 playoff season has yet to be fully written. We’ll see how Ceci holds up as the games get faster still. He’s not known for his speed and agility. But he is known for his calm head, heavy stick and remarkable positioning. He finds a way to generally get his job done in the playoffs.
Just about now, I’m glad the Oilers stuck with him.
