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It might have been the Dallas Stars claiming the top spot in the Western Conference with a 113-point regular season, but it’s the Edmonton Oilers who hold home-ice advantage in a conference final series about to shift north for Games 3 and 4.
But perhaps not is all as it seems at first glance.
Here are five factors to consider in the rest of Round 3:
1. ROAD WARRIORS
As much as home-ice advantage can mean in an extended playoff series, the Stars have actually fared better on the road here in the playoffs. And not by a little.
Dallas is a sub-par 4-5 at home, but 5-1 when travelling in the best-of-7 format, which comes as a surprise for a team that finished almost a mirror image 26-11-4 at home and 26-10-5 on the road in the regular season.
Edmonton, meanwhile, hasn’t shown much of a preference, going 5-3 on the road and 4-2 at home over the post-season.
Dallas scored more than three goals just one time in nine home games this post-season, but have done it three times on the road already, as they will certainly look to take back control of the series with a statement game Monday.
2. WELL RUNS DRAI
No one is disputing the all-out horsepower of Edmonton’s turbocharged offensive engine over these playoffs, driven by four cylinders in the form of Leon Draisaitl (nine goals, 16 assists for 25 points), Connor McDavid (three goals, 20 assists for 23 points), Evan Bouchard (five goals, 16 assists for 21 points) and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (four goals, 13 assists for 17 points).
The group continues to occupy all top four spots on the points-leader board in the playoffs.
But the engine has started sputtering a bit.
For the first time in the post-season, Draisaitl failed to record a point in Saturday’s loss, ending his personal point streak at 14 games.
Yes, he’s allowed to have one off-game, (if you don’t count all the hits, back-checking and shot blocking he did without the puck), but it could just be the tip of the Oilers’ iceberg.
3. CONCERN McDAVID
Draisaitl’s game can be shrugged off as a one-off.
But McDavid has been held pointless in four of the last seven games now. And that could be a problem if the trend continues, considering his defenceman-like ice time of 24:29 was only topped by one actual defenceman, Evan Bouchard’s 27:22 on Monday.
Fortunately, Edmonton’s record in this stretch is 4-3, and McDavid recorded his fastest speed of the playoffs at 23.81 miles an hour Monday. So the velocity is there.
But the Oilers need each one of their big offensive guns firing — and preferably into the back of the net — if they hope to outlast an extremely deep roster in Dallas over what’s become a best-of-5 to earn an appearance in the Stanley Cup finals.
4. ACTION-REACTION
When Jamie Benn scored on the Stars’ first shot of the game, it could easily have been the backbreaker for a much more demoralizing loss than one that came down to an empty net in the end, which leaves a team looking deep in the mirror the next morning.
Instead, the Oilers wasted no time responding. And the answer came from a very unlikely subject with Connor Brown, of all people, scoring 44 seconds later with a rebound off of Edmonton’s second shot of the game.
It was the first goal of the playoffs since 2018 for Brown, who struggled mightily since arriving in Edmonton and having to wait 14 games for his first point, and 55 games for his first goal. He finished his first season with the Oilers with four goals and eight assists in 71 games for his lowest total since his rookie year. Minus, of course, last year when he wrecked his knee early on.
5. ALL FOR ONE
Brown is part of an Oilers fourth line that has been evolving before our very eyes over the playoffs.
Together with centre Sam Carrick and Mattias Janmark on the left wing, the trio has come to life over the last handful of games, all but demoting the Oilers third line on paper, both in their ability to grind and when it comes to generating offensive opportunities.
Perhaps the imminent return of injured forward Adam Henrique to the lineup will help spark the middle six.
