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Ninety-four per cent NHL analysts (47 out of 50 by my count) have picked the Edmonton Oilers to beat that Vancouver Canucks.
Ninety-four per cent NHL analysts (47 out of 50 by my count) have picked the Edmonton Oilers to beat that Vancouver Canucks.
The super majority favouring Edmonton includes ESPN’s P.K. Subban, who has been nothing if not a doubter of the Oilers all season.
He questioned their ability to step up against tough teams. “My question still remains for the Edmonton Oilers: when the stage gets bigger and the bright lights come on, can these horses raise their level of play? Can they get better? Is there another level to their game? Because I’m telling you right now the L.A. Kings are going to challenge you. Dallas Stars are going to challenge you. And the Vegas Golden Knights are going to have something to say about Edmonton coming out of the West… The Edmonton Oilers are going to have to show this consistency when it matters the most, and that’s in the playoffs.”
Here’s what the experts are saying:
Odds Shark picked the Oilers, with writer Michael Anderson saying: “I want to draw your attention to Vancouver’s lack of experience in this situation. It’s the first time in three years they’ve hit the second round of the playoffs. And while getting through Nashville was a great achievement it wasn’t without luck. A lot of luck… When the Canucks goaltending went cold (0.910SV% or lower) their shooting percentage spiked to 19%. That’s not going to last against a battle-tested Edmonton side that’s got two of the best players in the game. I agree with the oddsmakers here. Vancouver has been riding a wave of luck all year and it’s going to come crashing down.”
At NHL.com, 16 out of 17 analysts picked the Oilers over Vancouver.
At USA Today, both Mike Brehm and Jace Evans picked the Oilers in five.
Said Brehm: “The Canucks, whose power play was just average in the first round, will have their hands full.”
And Evans: “Third-string goalie Arturs Silovs stepping in and leading the Canucks into the second round is an awesome story. Facing Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and the rest of the Edmonton Oilers with your third-string goalie, though, is not ideal.”
At TNT, Colby Armstrong picked the Oilers. “I think Edmonton’s gonna walk all over them. I do, I have a feeling. I’m going off of what I just watched through this series and what I watched against L.A. and what Edmonton was able to do to them. And so (Vancouver) they better be ready to roll. They better have some tricks up their sleeves.”
Mike Gould of the Daily Faceoff picked the Canucks in seven games: “This is going to be a firecracker of a series. The Oilers are a bit more battle-tested, but while they’re the only Western Conference team to make it out of the first round of the playoffs in each of the last three seasons, they also have yet to win a single game in the Western Conference Final or beyond during the Connor McDavid/Leon Draisaitl era… If (Vancouver)can remain disciplined and get a bit more production from the likes of Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller, and Quinn Hughes, they could quickly emerge as the favourites… I’ll say the Canucks take this one with a dramatic Game 7 overtime win on home ice — with Pius Suter scoring the clinching goal yet again.”
Over at ESPN, 23 out of 24 analysts picked the Oilers over the Canucks. Those bullish on the Oilers include P.K. Subban, Mark Messier and Ray Ferraro, one of hockey’s most outstanding commentators, picking the Oilers in six.
At The Athletic, the analytics team of By Dom Luszczyszyn, Shayna Goldman and Sean Gentille said the Oilers have a 74 per cent chance of winning the series, 26 per cent for the Canucks. “To beat the Oilers in the playoffs, the Canucks need everyone above and beyond the top of their game. But that especially goes for their star players who need to match the best in the world. It’s doable — Vancouver’s core group has grown into one worth fearing — but if even one performs below the mark, the Canucks’ chances become even dimmer. (Elias) Pettersson performing at that level before the series even begins isn’t a good sign.”
My take
1. Oilers in six. If Thatcher Demko was healthy and in net, I might well think otherwise.
2. I see this series as a battle of teams that have learned painful lessons in recent seasons, two teams blessed with outstanding offensive talent that are in the process of learning that the road to the Stanley Cup is paved with defensive intensity, grit and structure.
Which team is ahead in that process?
Edmonton has had more painful experience in this regard, though it has a number of players who continue to struggle with reads and decision-making.
Edmonton is far from a perfect defensive machine. But it’s much better than it was a year ago. The Canucks? They’re also looking good on defence, so much so that we might well say this aspect of the game is even up between the two teams. If that’s the case, though, I see Edmonton with more ability to manufacture goals against a strong defensive team.
We do not know which team will get the better bounces, referee calls and goaltending. But the Oilers offence is one reliable predictor that the team will win, at least if its defensive play matches Vancouver’s defensive play.
3. For what it’s worth, by my count 89 per cent of analysts picked the Oilers over Los Angeles in the first round of the playoffs. I had the Oilers in five, as did many others.
