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The Alternative for Germany’s MEPs have been kicked out of the EU Parliament’s far-right Identity and Democracy group. So how does that change the electoral math?
Before the AfD delegation was booted out — following a series of scandals mostly involving lead candidate Maximilian Krah — the ID group had 58 MEPs. POLITICO’s Poll of Polls predicts ID will jump to 85 in the European election of June 6-9 (with the AfD included).
Right now, the AfD has nine MEPs and it’s projected to get 17 in the new Parliament (which will have 720 members as opposed to 705 now).
Take the 17 AfD MEPs away and that drops ID down to a projected 68 lawmakers in the next Parliament.
A smaller ID has a big impact on the hard-right European Conservatives and Reformists group. ECR has 69 MEPs right now and POLITICO’s Poll of Polls predicts that number to increase slightly, to 71.
If those numbers pan out, ECR would remain ahead of ID. But if the AfD hadn’t been kicked out, ID would be ahead.
But there will be horse-trading after the election, with parties switching between groups. Maybe the AfD rejoins ID? Maybe there’s a new faction created? What about Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz, which is polling at around 10 MEPs who don’t currently sit with any group?
If we add the projected totals for ID, ECR, AfD and Fidesz together, that comes to 166 MEPs out of 720.
If they (very hypothetically) decided to all work together, that far-right supergroup would be in second place, just 10 seats behind the European People’s Party of Ursula von der Leyen.
Even a divided right is a big issue for von der Leyen, who (assuming she is national leaders’ choice for Commission president) needs the support of 361 MEPs to win another term.
All those far-right MEPs could also block legislation they don’t like throughout the parliamentary term, putting huge pressure on the cordon sanitaire, which currently blocks ID from wielding any real influence in the Parliament (and partially does the same thing to ECR).
It certainly explains why von der Leyen says she’s willing to work with Italian PM Giorgia Meloni, whose MEPs are part of the ECR.
Winning a second term and securing 361 votes will come down to the wire. The EPP, Socialists and Renew liberals are projected to secure 402 seats, meaning that if only 10 percent or so of MEPs from the main centrist parties rebel in an approval vote, she will be in trouble. Indeed, that could make support from the ECR vital to her.
