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This in from Kevin Woodley of NHL.com, his rave review of Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner heading into Edmonton’s second round series against the Vancouver Canucks.
This in from Kevin Woodley of NHL.com, his rave review of Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner heading into Edmonton’s second round series against the Vancouver Canucks.
Writes Woodley at NHL.com: “Skinner was excellent after the Oilers replaced coach Jay Woodcroft and assistant Dave Manson with Kris Knoblauch and Hall of Fame defenseman Paul Coffey on Nov. 12, and a big part of that was the team finally limiting the high-quality rush chances they were giving up far too often at the start of the season.
“Skinner’s goal chart is remarkably well balanced from the glove to blocker side, which shouldn’t be a surprise for such a technically sound goalie who uses conservative positioning, especially on in-zone play.”
In breaking down Skinner’s game in more detailed fashion, he noted Skinner can be more vulnerable than the average NHL goalie to seam passes and plays across the middle and to quick shots.
“On rush plays, lateral passes are more effective higher in the zone, which may seem counterintuitive, but there’s a tendency to either slide or pitch forward and get off balance coming across on these.”
Woodley was also interviewed on Canucks Talk Sportsnet 650 in Vancouver, where he repeated his strong endorsement of Skinner. “He’s like a Top 5 guy since the coaching change, like statistically. Since the coaching change, since Knoblauch took over and since they stopped bleeding high danger rush chances at a rate that, frankly, was the worst in the National Hockey League, or bottom two at least, he has been a Top 5 goaltender. He is not a weak leak. He is really good.”
There’s pressure on Skinner in that this is his second year as a pro and he’s being asked to backstop a Stanley Cup contender, Woodley said, with two of the best players in the world. “It’s a big ask.”
Edmonton is not giving up so much off the rush but when the team does, it’s still an area where Skinner struggles, Woodley said. “That is a weakness.”
When the puck is in the Oilers end, Skinner is a massive goalie who moves pretty well, but off the rush his skating is not a strength. “It’s like Connor Hellebuyck, the best goaltender in the world one-on-one. Move him east-west and he’s right around league average and we’ve seen that play out in the playoffs.”
But Edmonton no longer gives up much off the rush and Vancouver doesn’t create much off the rush, Woodley said.
My take
1. Woodley is the expert with an expertise on goaltenders far more than most of us can grasp. But unlike some experts, what he says passes the smell test. He’s bang on in terms of what we’ve seen of Skinner this year.
Skinner at his best facing shots off the cycle and at his worst trying to charge across the net to stop a two-on-one one-timer shot. He’ll sometimes fall forward awkwardly on such plays. But when he’s on, he’s a huge blocker, sucking up first shots easily, thwarting most every shot that comes his way.
2. According to the Cult of Hockey’s review, Edmonton gave up 331 Grade A shots at even strength off the rush and 418 Grade A shots at even strength off the cycle, forecheck and face-offs. The opposition scored 27 per cent of the time off rush chances, 12 per cent of the time off in-zone chances.
Obviously the key for the Oilers is to not give up rush chances, which is why you’ll see us be so critical in regards to Oil d-men who make rash pinches in the neutral or offensive zone, and why we take particular offence to forwards who turnover the puck at the o-zone blueine or fail to backcheck hard. It’s those plays that tend to cause the rush plays against that kill Edmonton.
Can Skinner get better on those kinds of rush plays? One would hope, but that improvement will come over time, not today or tomorrow, though he might well be hot enough today or tomorrow to stop all such chances. You never know with a goalie.
3. Last year in 12 games in the playoffs, his save percentage was .883. This year in five games it’s .910.
4. Like many goalies, Skinner tends to be hot, then cold, then hot, then cold. When we look at his play over the last three seasons in terms of hot and cold streaks, here is what we’ve seen in chronological order: hot (5 games), cold (6 games), hot (7 games), hot again (six games), cold (7 games), hot (5 games), cold (13 games), hot (22 games), cold (7 games), hot (8 games), cold (5 games), hot (6 games).
The good news is two-fold. That Skinner has had a hot streak as long as 22 games this year, and that Calvin Pickard has tended to be more hot than cold, so he can be counted on to provide relief if it’s needed in these playoffs.
