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Biden administration officials looking at the far-right wins in the EU parliamentary elections are stressing one thing: It could have been worse.
Yes, key U.S. ally France now will have snap legislative elections as part of the fallout. But the advances by parties that hold hostile views on migration and the EU as a bloc were not as big as they could have been, and parties with centrist approaches retained power.
One U.S. official, granted anonymity to describe internal dynamics, said Biden was relieved that EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, with whom he is personally and perhaps ideologically closest, looks likely to secure another parliamentary majority and a second term.
Still, far-right forces are increasingly coordinating and feeding off each other globally, while pushing politics rightward in some countries. Given the far right’s support for GOP presidential contender Donald Trump, and the boost he gave them by winning the U.S. presidency in 2016, the Biden team and Democrats are balancing their optimistic take with the recognition that the results could still be a disturbing sign for leftists globally.
“Trump and congressional Republicans are now harbingers for what’s happening in Europe, which is normalizing the far-right,” said Ian Russell, a Democratic consultant who works in the U.S. and Europe, who added that “the parties of the center-left continue to face pressure” in Europe and, by extension, in the U.S.
French President Emmanuel Macron’s party was beaten by that of far-right rival Marine Le Pen in the EU race. So Macron took a gamble: He called for snap elections later this month, essentially daring French voters to say whether they actually want the far right running France’s parliament. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, another critical G7 partner, also performed poorly in the EU race compared with the German far right.
Scholz and Macron are critical partners for Biden, especially when it comes to defending Ukraine. Political weakness for either could undermine their cooperation with the U.S. and EU countries on various fronts, although the general consensus is that European support for Ukraine will continue to hold for now.
Biden has said nothing about the EU elections and Macron’s stunning move, which came just hours after Biden left Paris on Sunday. Biden’s reticence stands in contrast to his full-throated calls in France last week to rally the West around the cause of democracy. It’s unlikely he will say much more now, given the tradition that presidents avoid weighing in on other countries’ domestic politics, and that he’s heading to Italy on Wednesday.
But Biden national security aides are trying to view the EU election results in their entirety, and pointing to reasons not to panic.
The same U.S. official who applauded von der Leyen’s showing pointed to results from Poland, Sweden, Finland, Slovakia and Greece, where far-right populists underperformed, as a sign that it may be premature to sound the alarm that a Euro-skeptic wave was overtaking the continent.
National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said Tuesday that the U.S. is ready to collaborate across the European Union.
“We’re going to continue to work with the E.U. and we look forward to continuing our great relationship with President von der Leyen,” he told reporters.
Few Biden allies thought the European elections would resonate among U.S. voters. They also noted that Democrats, as well as many independents, were already panicking about the rise of the American right, unlike in 2016 when many dismissed the possibility that Trump would win.
“In 2016, people were taken by surprise with Trump’s win,” said Jesse Ferguson, a longtime Democratic strategist. “In 2024, people are scared by what it would mean if he won again.”
Biden allies also noted that Brexit, which presaged Trump’s victory in 2016, is now broadly unpopular in the United Kingdom. Recent polling has found a majority of Brits now disapprove of the decision to leave the EU. And the Labour Party, a center-left party, is expected to prevail in the July 4 elections.
On Capitol Hill, lawmakers and staffers, too, are in wait-and-see mode. But there was a sense that the EU parliamentary results overall are a win for continued European support for Ukraine as it battles Russia. That’s because, at the end of the day, the forces at the center will retain power.
“The results show clear frustration by voters with incumbent governments, and though growing support for far-right governments is a concerning trend, it’s notable to see the center hold at the EU level, where the U.S. must continue working productively with its leadership,” said Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.), ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, in a statement.
European diplomats in Washington, granted anonymity to speak freely about private conversations, said U.S. officials, even behind closed doors, are remaining calm about the brouhaha in Brussels. American officials, one European diplomat in Washington said, have asked “technical questions” about the next steps in Europe, including the upcoming French snap election, but have largely refrained from voicing concerns or fears.
“Having news of this kind of nature is not something that anyone prefers, but there’s still a lot to be seen,” a southern European diplomat said. “What will specifically happen? What sort of coalition will take place when it comes to the European institutions? Who will be elected?”
Some diplomats said they hope the EU results will show American officials that they cannot fully defer questions of transatlantic security to their European counterparts.
“It reminds the U.S. that it requires involvement from the U.S., even in those areas where there is not that much appetite to be involved,” the southern European diplomat said.
The results could add tensions to the U.S.-European bilateral relationship over time as European leaders face pressure to respond to the concerns of disaffected voters, said Kristine Berzina, who leads the German Marshall Fund of the United States’ GMF Geostrategy North program.
“It makes a conversation about Europe’s future slightly more challenging, but not yet catastrophic,” she said. “It’s the kickoff. It’s the beginning of what is going to be the reorganization of Brussels for the next five years.”
