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Colombo June 7: June 4 will likely be a momentous day for India, with voters across the vibrant tapestry of the South Asia economic juggernaut, casting their ballot and bringing in a new balance to the power structures in New Delhi. The 2024 Indian elections which were conducted from 19 April to 1 June are likely the world’s largest democratic event, with nearly a billion eligible to vote.
While the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will likely form a coalition government, and declare victory, it is clear that the BJP’s performance has slowed. This is surprising, due to the lack of visible widespread anger against the BJP in the build up to the polls. The vote is also a sign that the opposition political parties in India, which were all but reduced to a fraction of their capacity over the last decade, have staged a remarkable comeback. Opposition leadership in India, led by Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav have followed the vote, proven many sceptics wrong.
Going by the tally at the time of going to press, BJP’s performance is well short of an expected landslide win which the populist leader sought. It is a surprise setback for Narendra Modi, and his brand of politics, and will likely dent in the ‘indomitable’ persona he had created over the last decade. Premier Modi had made the election campaign largely around him, and has paid the price for it. It seems that India has reminded its leadership that politicians can be cut to size by the voter. A future NDA-led coalition government, which can affect how some policies are drafted and how the Centre will respond to domestic, regional and international stimulus. The election signifies a major realignment of Indian politics on several dimensions. The election result, may also change the kind of Politics which Modi has been practising, with him now constrained to work within the confines of a coalition government. However, it is likely that India’s foreign policy framework will remain largely unchanged. Modi’s ‘SAGAR / Neighbourhood first’ initiative will likely remain in place.
While India under the BJP had made momentous strides in many fields over the last decade, many in India and outside were concerned about the erosion of democratic space, and the growth of authoritarianism and communalism which was widening fault lines of the vibrant social fabric India is made up of. The suppression of dissent and the hounding of journalists, harsh action against critical academia, the treatment of minority communities, and the shrinking space for opposing views within India over the last decade had caused significant concerns in neighbouring countries, and beyond. With this display of democracy, governance in India is once again a high competitive political system. Some observers have expressed hope that with that comes the possibility of checks and balances and accountability. They also point out that the election result indicates that India has stopped the BJP from engulfing their entire political landscape. Will a coalition government mean that the BJP will have to take the Indian Legislature more seriously and act with their consent? That remains to be seen.
The change in New Delhi’s power balance was made possible in part by the opposition INDIA alliance, especially in the key state of Uttar Pradesh, where although the BJP has held onto its vote share, but has been denied seats. The shortcoming of the BJP in Uttar Pradesh may trigger some internal issues within the BJP, requiring some flexibility from party leadership, who are not known for their love for restructuring. It remains to be seen if the opposition alliance can hold together. If it does, it may become a permanent political force.
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