Tories Set For Worst Election Result In More Than 100 Years, New Poll Reveals

The Tories are heading for their worst election result in more than 100 years, according to a major new poll.

In a further shattering blow for Rishi Sunak, the More In Common survey of more than 10,000 voters shows the party is on course to be left with just 155 MPs after July 4.

Labour, meanwhile, are set to gain more than 200 seats to leave them with 406 and a majority of 162.

More in Common also say there are 96 marginal seats where the Conservatives are currently within five points of victory.

That means they could potentially end up with as many as 203 MPs – or as few as 107 – depending on how they perform on election day.

The so-called MRP poll – which surveys more people than normal and gives a seat-by-seat prediction to try to come up with a more accurate forecast – puts the Lib Dems on 49 seats, the SNP on 18, Plaid Cymru on 2 and the Greens on 1.

Meanwhile, a second MRP poll by Savanta for the Telegraph predicted a virtual Tory wipeout – with even Sunak himself at risk of losing his Richmond seat.

It showed Labour on 516 seats and the Tories on 53, just three ahead of the Lib Dems on 50. The SNP would also collapse to just eight MPs, with Plaid Cymru on four.

That would hand Labour an unprecedented 382-seat majority.

Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said: “These are figures are stark, but are a consequence of the almost unique set of events conspiring against the Conservative Party this election – from the short campaign effects of the D-Day gaffe and the rise of Reform UK, to the longer-term brand challenges going back to the mini budget and partygate.”

The two polls come hard on the heels of another last night by Ipsos UK, which forecast a 256-seat Labour majority.

Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common UK, said: “The fact that this projection showing the Conservatives barely holding 150 seats is one of the most favourable to the Conservatives shows how deep a hole the party finds itself in – with barely two weeks to go for them to change the dial.

“Far from the narrowing in the polls many expected to see by now, the Conservatives’ position instead appears to be getting worse and only a small move away from them could see them reduced to 107 seats.

“Labour on the other hand looks set to inherit a historic majority while remaining largely undefined in the eyes of the electorate.

“While creating such a broad electoral coalition, that will span from Blue Wall Worthing to Blyth in the Red Wall, is a good problem to have in the short term, it points to potential difficulties in creating a governing agenda that unites such disparate tribes – especially when electoral cynicism is so high.”