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PARIS — France is one step away from electing a far-right government for the first time in the modern republic’s history.
The first round of voting on Sunday put Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party in the lead, ahead of the left-wing alliance, with President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition lagging behind in third place.
On Sunday July 7, voters will go back to the polls to make their final decisions. At stake is not just the future make-up of the French parliament, but the stability of the EU’s second biggest economy and the political strength of NATO and the European Union.
The French electoral process is complex and party leaders are urgently trying to work out how to game the system to deliver their preferred outcome.
For Macron and his allies, the choice is particularly painful: cling to the hope that voters might back his liberal offer, or bow to reality and throw his party’s support behind radical left-wingers in an attempt to stop the far right taking power.
“Not a single vote for the far right. It’s worth remembering that [during the presidential elections] in 2017 and 2022… on the left, everyone held that line. Without it, you and I wouldn’t be here,” Macron reportedly told his cabinet members during a meeting Monday per RTL — signalling that the president could go all-in against the far right in the runoffs.
POLITICO walks you through what happens next.
How it works
French members of parliament are not elected on the basis of proportional representation, but through two rounds of voting, across 577 constituencies where local dynamics often play a role.
Up to four candidates can qualify for the second round, depending on local turnout and votes. In 301 of the 577 electoral districts, at least three candidates, usually one from each of the main coalitions — the National Rally, Macron’s centrist coalition and the leftwing alliance, have now qualified for the second round. These are the crucial battlegrounds that will decide the outcome of the election.
Thanks to its nationwide-lead, the RN leads the race in most cases. If candidates who came third in these districts withdraw from the election, it potentially works against National Rally (RN), as voters who oppose the far right are likely to band together to back the sole remaining rival candidate.
But the process is still highly uncertain. That’s why seat projections for the RN after the first round vary widely, from 230 seats to 310. Some 289 seats are needed to secure an absolute majority in the assembly.
Will Macron swallow his pride?
“In such circumstances, France deserves that we not hesitate,” Macron’s Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said on Sunday evening, calling on third-place finishers to bow out of the race when their candidacy in the runoff could “have the National Rally elected.”
But not everyone in the presidential camp is ready to bow out… During the three-week legislative campaign, centrist operatives argued that the left-wing bloc, called the New Popular Front, was under the control of the hard-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon and his France Unbowed (LFI) movement. All political “extremes,” they said, should be fought equally.
Before the first round of voting, Macron himself went as far as likening his leftist opponents to the far right, claiming their success would lead to a “civil war.”
The clock is ticking
A 48-hour window could determine the outcome of the vote next Sunday. Candidates who have qualified for the second round have until Tuesday evening at 6 p.m. CET to register their candidacies.
Some pro-Macron candidates have already announced that they will following the prime minister’s instructions, pulling out even in favor of contenders from the radical LFI movement.
But it’s a patchy picture so far. Both former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe and Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire said they believed that no votes should be casted for LFI — even against the National Rally.
Some candidates have even declared they want to stay in the race despite finishing third, even against left-wing candidates from moderate forces including the French Greens and Socialists.
On the left, voting instructions appear clearer: All leaders within the New Popular Front bloc have called on their third-place finishers to pull out whenever the National Rally is in the lead, clearing the field for centrist candidates when they’re best placed to defeat Le Pen’s party.
Still rivals
Now there is a catch. Even if everything is set into motion in mainstream parties to stop a National Rally victory, the outcome will remain uncertain. Voters are the people who really matter — and they show few signs of wanting to follow orders.
According to an Elabe poll released before Sunday’s vote, barely one in four voters intended to follow the voting instructions delivered by their parties.
Furthermore, while the National Rally insisted it would only govern with an absolute majority during the first round campaign, the party is now softening this position. Its leaders are saying that they could try to approach other lawmakers, particularly within the conservative Les Républicains group, to build a majority.
“If we need to find extra support, we’ll accept our duty to the French people,” said the National Rally vice-president Sébastien Chenu on Monday. That was seen as a hint that if the party comes close to the required 289 seats for a majority, they will do whatever it takes to find the support from MPs that they need.
That scenario would lead to more turmoil and uncertainty as the National Rally tries to persuade new MPs to come on board with it in a historic mission to put the far right in charge of France.
