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By P.K.Blachandran/Daily News
Colombo, June 8: Nepal is again on the verge of political instability. The ruling coalition comprising the Communist Part of Nepal (Maoist Centre) led by Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal “Prachanda” and the Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist Leninist) led by K.P.Sharma Oli, is on the verge of breaking up.
Last Monday, K.P.Sharma Oli declared his intention to team up with the opposition Nepali Congress (NC) led by Sher Bahadur Deuba thus threatening Dahal’s government.
A vote of confidence is expected to be taken on July 12 and the chances of Prachanda’s party, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) or CPN (MC) winning it are slim because the Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist Leninist) or CPN (UML) and the Nepali Congress (NC) together have more members in the House of Representatives.
In the 275-strong House, Prime Minister Prachanda would need the backing of 138 members to win the trust vote. But he has the support of only 73 (comprising 32 from his own CPN (MC); 21 from the Rastriya Swatantra Party; 10 from the Communist Party (Unified Socialist); 6 from Janamat Party and 4 from the Nagarik Unmukti Party.
The CPN (UML) on the other hand has 78 seats and NC 89, a total of 147, enough to get through.
Prachanda had not had it easy ever since he became Prime Minister in December 2022. He has already faced four no-confidence motions since becoming PM.
However, since the CPN (UML) is a pro-China communist party and the Nepali Congress is a pro-India Centre-Left party, the proposed tie up between the two is not expected to last very long. Therefore, political stability is not ensured.
Chronic Instability
Be that as it may, few politicians in Nepal seem to be worried about instability as instability has been the norm in Nepal. Since the end of the monarchy in 2008, in the last 14 years, the country has seen 11 Prime Ministerial changes.
The chief reason for the frequent change of Prime Ministers and governments is one-upmanship among the country’s small political elite. But power circulates only among a very small group. The leaders in circulation have been about three to five. Apart from labels, there are no actual ideological difference at play. And this power elite come from the same upper class and set of upper castes called Khas-Arya (Brahmins and Kshatriyas). Therefore, changes don’t cause social or economic upheavals and it is business as usual.
Due to China’s mediation, the CPN (MC) and the CPN (UML) united to form a government in 2018. But the two clashed because Prachanda and Oli did not see eye to eye on several issues. Following instability, Sher Bahadur Deuba of the Nepali Congress became Prime Minister on Supreme Court’s orders in July 2021.
In the elections of July 2022, the Nepali Congress emerged as the single largest party. But the CPN (MC) of Prachanda and the CPN (UML) of Oli struck a post-election alliance, and Prachanda became Prime Minister.
However, by July 2024, that coalition government developed cracks. It is now on the verge of collapsing. The crack was brought about by the CPN (UML) which made a deal with the opposition Nepali Congress.
The deal is that K.P. Sharma Oli of the CPN (UML) will be Prime Minister for the first year and a half, and Sher Bahadur Deuba of the Nepali Congress will be PM for the next year and a half. The two have also agreed on the division of ministerial portfolios and a common policy agenda.
However, Prachanda is trying to put a spoke in the wheel of his detractors by telling Sher Bahadur Deuba that he, and not K.P.Sharma Oli, should form the next government because he is leader of the largest party in parliament with 89 members. Prachanda, who was let down by Oli, does not want Oli to be the next PM.
Reasons for Break Up
Many reasons are given for the break up between Prachanda and Oli. The most striking is the fake “Bhutanese refugees” scandal, in which big wigs of the CPN (UML) and the Nepali Congress were allegedly involved. Police had filed cases against politicians, bureaucrats and middlemen on charges of defrauding hundreds of Nepalis by promising to send them to the US as “Bhutanese refugees.”
Prachanda and Oli clashed also over the appointment of ambassadors to eight countries, the issue of transitional justice, a subject dear to Prachanda, having been an Maoist himself and constitutional changes.
Constitutional Changes
The CPN (UML) and Nepali Congress had proposed revisiting the 2015 constitution, but CPN (MC) was opposed to it.
CPN (UML) and Nepali Congress want to adopt a 100% First-Past-the-Post System (FPPS) for the House of Representatives and the Provincial Assemblies in place of the existing mixed FPPS and Proportional Representation System (PRS).
But the CPN (MC) is opposed to 100% FPPS on the grounds that it will only benefit the upper castes and upper classes (the Khas-Arya group). Tribal and religious minorities will also not have a voice under FPPS.
Those of this view point out that the Khas-Arya group accounted for 70% of the membership in parliament until the PRS was introduced.
There are other contentious issues in the constitution which need to be attended to, such as the delimitation of provincial boundaries to reflect community interests. Communities want to get the maximum benefit from delimitation. The Tharu community has been demanding a separate province as they are losing out in the Madesh province, where they are only 5% of the population. There is also a demand for the delineation of electoral constituencies for better community representation.
The Nepali Congress and the CPN (UML) have blamed the electoral system for political instability in Nepal and argue that the First Past Post System will ensure stable and strong governments.
As per Nepal’s electoral system, 165 members of parliament (House of Representatives) are elected under the First-Past-the-Post System and 110 under the Proportional Representation (PR) system. The PR system has guaranteed social inclusion, as parties are constitutionally bound to nominate women and people from the marginalised groups.
The 550 members of the seven Provincial Assemblies are also elected under the mixed FPPS-PR system.
But a constitutional amendment is easier said than done. It requires two-thirds majority in both the Lower House and the Upper House to pass the amendments. The combined strength of the Nepali Congress and the CPN (UML) is short of a two-third majority.
Some small parties with their base in the Madhesh region are unlikely to extend support to a move that aims at scrapping the Proportional Representation system.
Consequences of Instability
Political instability has hindered the implementation of effective policies and has resulted in a lack of progress in various sectors. One major factor contributing to political instability in Nepal is the existence of multiple political parties with conflicting ideologies. The parties range from Maoist to Royalist, communist to Hindu chauvinist. Consensus on important issues is difficult reach. With the result, Nepal remains socially and economically backward.
Political parties have engaged only in power struggles, with each seeking to gain and maintain control over the government. Governments are toppled on flimsy grounds. Foreign countries are allowed to meddle in Nepali politics and complicate matters.
There is lack of enlightened leaders with a long term vision for the country. Corruption, casteism and nepotism are rampant, with the result locals and foreigners shy away from investing in the country, though the energy and tourism sectors offer great prospects. A lot is pledged in foreign investment promotion conferences, but only a fraction is actually invested.
Be that as it may, thanks to remittances from Nepalis working abroad (US$ 11 billion in 2023) the percentage of people living below the poverty line came down from 25 in 2011 to 20 in 2023 according to government data.
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