Klaus Welle talks defense commissioner, EU budget

SNEAK PEEK

— The European Parliament’s former secretary general, Klaus Welle, talks to Jacopo about the defense commissioner role, the EU budget, and why it’s time for a full defense committee.

— U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey meets with counterparts from Japan and Italy today to discuss GCAP.

— European Parliament committees vote on their chairs and vice-chairs today — we’re watching SEDE and ITRE.

Good morning, and welcome to Morning Defense. Remember when we told you after Joe Biden dropped out of U.S. presidential contention that Europeans would soon start saying the bloc needs to invest in its defense regardless of who’s in the White House? Poland just did.

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DRIVING THE DAY

MEET THE FATHER OF THE DEFENSE COMMISSIONER IDEA: The job of defense commissioner isn’t just about political marketing, according to Klaus Welle, chair of the Martens Centre’s Academic Council, the European People’s Party think tank.

“We proposed the European commissioner on defense in our 175 proposals from last year,” he told Jacopo in an interview. “The bas[is] of everything has to be industrial capacity.”

Institutional architecture: If there’s a defense commissioner, the European Parliament will need a full defense committee as well, said Welle, who served as the Parliament’s secretary general for 13 years until 2022. “I understand that the groups are opening up to this idea now.”

Socialists not there yet: The EPP has favored a proper defense committee for a long time, and Renew is increasingly on board as well. “It’s basically the Socialists [that need to] be convinced,” Welle said.

While many officials think other committees won’t cede competences, Welle disagrees. “The safe bet is always that nothing’s going to happen. And that’s been the case for the last 25 years,” he said. Now it “could happen because the pressure on defense is very strong.”

More cash needed: Capitals will have to open their wallets, he continued.

“Enlargement, defense, digital, demography, Green Deal … one percent is impossible,” Welle said, a reference to the EU budget, which has remained at one percent of the bloc’s GDP since the late 1980s (or €160 to €180 billion annually). “The Commission has to come [forward] very quickly with a proposal.” 

Lion’s share for defense: A “sizable part” of an increased EU budget should go to defense, he argued. That would make it easier for frugal Nordic countries like Denmark or Finland to agree to higher contributions, as they’re slowly moving away from fiscal conservatism due to defense fears. “I would say the same of Germany,” he added.

“We will need to be able to defend ourselves conventionally after November, it’s absolutely clear,” he warned, referring to the U.S. election that could see NATO-skeptic Donald Trump return to the White House.

AGENDA

FARNBOROUGH: The air show continues today, with Leonardo holding an event on space this morning at its massive pavilion.

EU: European Parliament committees hold their first constitutive meetings and vote on chairs and vice-chairs. The ITRE meeting is at 11 a.m. while the SEDE subcommittee gathers at 1 p.m.

In other news, the bloc’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, has called an informal meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels at the end of August, effectively boycotting the Hungarian presidency.

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AIR WARFARE

GCAP LIVES: The big topic on day one of the Farnborough Air Show was the future of the Global Combat Air Programme, a plan to build a fighter jet for the British, Italian and Japanese air forces by 2035.

With a demonstrator due to fly in four years, a concept model is on show in a dedicated building hosting GCAP and BAE, featuring a wider-than-expected wingspan. 

Despite the early design update to the program, which was originally announced several years ago, big questions remain about whether GCAP will look the same after a strategic review of defense spending that has been launched by the new U.K. government.

Talk it over: The U.K.’s new Defense Secretary John Healey will meet with counterparts from Japan and Italy to discuss the plan today, a government official told Josh. The terms of an industrial joint venture must still be sealed before contracts for developing the jets — to be called Tempest in the U.K. — can be handed out next year.

Starmer says: PM Keir Starmer made it clear during his opening speech at Farnborough that the GCAP project (which the previous government funded with £656 million) is “important” to his government. He then met officials from the three main contractors — BAE Systems, Leonardo and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries — at the GCAP pavilion.

MPs take a look: On Wednesday, MPs will review a motion in support of the program.

Room for more? It has long been reported that a fourth country could join the program, with Saudi Arabia mentioned by officials at Farnborough. 

Herman Claesen, the U.K.’s lead industrial representative on the program, said an extra participant would boost the fighter’s export prospects when it’s ready.

EDA CALLS FOR BIDS ON AIR SUPERIORITY: The European Defence Agency has launched a call for bids to study the impact of emerging and disrupting technologies — such as drones and AI — on air superiority, and specifically air combat. The framework contract is worth €1.2 million, and the deadline to reply is Sept. 30.

US STRATEGIC BOMBERS OPERATE FROM ROMANIA FOR FIRST TIME: Two U.S. Air Force B-52Hs aircraft — which interacted with Russian jets over the weekend — arrived in Romania and will operate from the Eastern European country for the first time.

EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT

CLASH OVER PARLIAMENT’S DEFENSE COMMITTEE: Renew Europe MEP Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, who was the lead candidate in the June EP election for Germany’s ruling-coalition Free Democratic Party (FDP), has had to fight to stay in the running to be the next head of the SEDE subcommittee ahead of today’s vote.

EPP resistance: After Strack-Zimmermann publicly opposed the reelection of the EPP’s Ursula von der Leyen as Commission president, EPP lawmakers opposed her getting the SEDE job. The German liberal then sent them a letter, seen by Nick, requesting a meeting on Monday to “introduce” herself.

But EPP lawmakers weren’t keen.

Belgian Christian Democrat Wouter Beke’s office told our colleague Max Griera Andreu that “we were invited to meet with Strack-Zimmermann. Given this unusual procedure, Mr. Beke will not attend the meeting,” adding there was “no indication” other EPP members intended to go.

Options: Some lawmakers say she will get the SEDE chair, but the EPP has options to derail her candidacy such as floating another candidate, or introducing a motion for today’s vote to take place via secret ballot, which would give cover to other groups to oppose her.

Defense bonds: Strack-Zimmermann’s opposition to von der Leyen has obviously soured her relations with the EPP. But there are also policy differences, as the German liberal is bound by the FDP’s opposition to any new issue of EU debt. Some lawmakers also want more clarity on whether she would support defense bonds if a majority in the Parliament was in favor.

ITRE MAKES MOVE ON EDIP: On Wednesday the industry committee will hear from Timo Pesonen, boss of the Commission’s DG Defis, on the European Defence Industry Programme regulation. That’s a clear indication that ITRE intends to lead on the file.

PROCUREMENT

RAYTHEON’S PATRIOT PLAY: Having NATO bundle demand for air defense systems and interceptors helps Raytheon plan its supply chain better, Thomas Laliberty, the company’s president of land and air defense systems, said at Farnborough on Monday.

“Aggregated demand is a model for success,” Laliberty told Josh during a briefing on the sidelines of the air show, adding that it means “we can identify the work, plan capacity and shorten lead times.”

“Without understanding demand it’s very difficult for us to do planning,” he said.

Getting going: Earlier this year, NATO’s Support and Procurement Agency said it would help Germany, the Netherlands, Romania and Spain source up to 1,000 Patriot interceptor missiles.

Sharing is caring: Laliberty said the initiative also helps dispatch the missiles to the countries that need them, rather than just the one making the order. “Because it’s at the NATO level, NATO can decide on the distribution of the missiles so they go to the highest need.”

Business is good: The Patriot system has 19 customers, with Ukraine the most recent addition and Kyiv repeatedly requesting more of the platforms. “This performance has really prompted a sustained interest in Patriots,” Laliberty said.

Takes time: “It takes us 12 months to build a Patriot radar, but it takes us 24 months to get all the parts,” Laliberty said.

Step by step: Although Germany, Romania and Spain all have fire units on order, the company’s production lines aren’t stretched.

“We can produce one Patriot fire unit a month when the pipeline is full,” Laliberty said. “Even with all the demand … we’re not at full capacity.”

MBDA, UK RENEW ‘COMPLEX WEAPONS’ PARTNERSHIP: The missile maker and the U.K. defense ministry have renewed their partnership for 10 more years via a Portfolio Management Agreement worth at least £6.5 billion.

UKRAINE

RUSSIA, UKRAINE MONITOR US ELECTION: Both Kyiv and Moscow are waiting to see what a change at the White House might mean on the battlefield come January, when serving U.S. President Joe Biden steps down and the winning candidate emerging from the November election is sworn in. More here.

Meanwhile, the Czech Republic is set to send 100,000 rounds of ammunition to Ukraine in the next two month under its global purchasing initiative, Jacopo reports here.

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