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European leaders and diplomats cycled through shock and dismay at the selection of J.D. Vance as Donald Trump’s running mate. Many are also in two other stages: Denial and bargaining.
Vance is an avowed isolationist who has said he doesn’t care about Ukraine. His selection does nothing to address concerns about Trump’s hostility to NATO – even if a vice president typically has little power in any administration.
But the fact that Vance transformed from being a fierce Trump critic to a strong supporter means he might be persuadable on other issues, including aiding Ukraine, said Oleksandr Merezhko, the head of the country’s parliamentary foreign relations committee.
“His views may change on international issues as well,” Merezhko, told POLITICO.
That was a frequent refrain as the Vance decision began to sink in across Europe, with officials squinting to find a bit of blue sky on an otherwise dark horizon.
“It is hard for us to imagine that James Vance, once in the White House, would begin to act against the interests of America. And the strategic interests of the United States today lie in deterring Russia in Europe,” said Yehor Cherniev, deputy chair of the Ukrainian parliament’s Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence.
Some clung to the notion that it will be Trump, not his vice president, who would be making major foreign policy decisions, and that Vance won’t wield the kind of influence as powerful predecessors such as Dick Cheney or Joe Biden.
“Like many we are worried about his isolationism and previous opposition to Ukraine aid. But that doesn’t differ from Trump himself, so fundamentally little difference,” said a European Union diplomat, granted anonymity like others quoted in this story to openly discuss concerns about the election. “Difficult to imagine a Cheney situation, given that Trump likes to dominate himself.”
“Trump is the key guy,” said a person close to the office of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
A senior Ukrainian official, meanwhile, said that Vance’s past statements will mean nothing if Trump can be convinced to keep assisting Kyiv, even if at lower levels than under the Biden administration.
Not everyone is at that stage of the grief process. A European diplomat in Washington texted POLITICO after the announcement: “Holy shit.” Choosing the Ohio senator would mean another four years of MAGA foreign policy — and potentially another eight after that if Vance were to successfully run in 2028 and then go on to win reelection. That, the official added, “means this isn’t an anomaly anymore. This is American policy” for the future.
Others made their consternation very public.
“More champagne popping in the Kremlin,” wrote Guy Verhofstadt, a former Belgian prime minister and liberal MEP from the Renew Europe group, on Tuesday in a post on X. Ricarda Lang, a co-leader of the German Greens party that is part of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government called Trump’s pick “worrying for Europe” given Vance’s stance on Ukraine.
Republican boosters of Ukraine on Capitol Hill are also holding out hope that Vance will change his position if he becomes vice president. Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), a Ukraine aid advocate who bucked opponents in his own party, said Tuesday that he hoped Vance could be convinced to change course.
“Some of the comments Mr. Vance has made, I don’t agree with,” Bacon said in an interview. “I’m always going to stand for what I think is right, and I believe an independent Ukraine is in our national security interests because once Russia wins, they’re going to be emboldened to do other countries.”
“I see it very clearly and I hope that we can persuade the vice presidential nominee to adjust on that,” Bacon added.
Part of the debate over how seriously to take Vance’s promises to pull back from Ukraine may stem from the fact that his foreign policy work has so far been limited. Though the senator has made a name for himself as a vocal opponent to aid to Ukraine and as a supporter for a U.S. geostrategic pivot to Asia, he does not sit on any congressional foreign policy or military committees and has only served in the Senate for about 18 months. The first time he participated in a foreign congressional delegation was in February, when he attended the Munich Security Conference.
The Ohio Republican also has limited relationships with Washington’s diplomatic community. Two other European diplomats in Washington said that Vance wasn’t among the lawmakers who regularly interact with the diplomatic community. “We don’t know really if it’s posture or a strong belief,” one of the diplomats said of his positions on foreign policy.
One exception is Canada — which is also a major supporter of getting more assistance to Ukraine. Kirsten Hillman, Canada’s U.S. envoy, said Monday that the Ohio senator “knows Canada well.” Hillman, who is at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, told CTV News she has met Vance a couple of times and added “we already have a bit of a relationship built, so that’s good.”
And of course, not all foreign governments reacted negatively to the news of Vance’s nomination, not even all those in Europe. Far-right politicians praised Trump’s pick, a reminder that a Trump and Vance win, and a reduction in support for Ukraine, would be celebrated in some corners of the continent.
“A Trump-Vance administration sounds just right,” Balázs Orbán, the political director of Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán, wrote on X Monday, adding: “Vance is definitely the best choice for VP.”
The leader of Spain’s far-right Vox party, Santiago Abascal, today called Vance the embodiment of “the American spirit of opportunity, freedom and prosperity in the face of hate, sectarianism and the privilege of progressive and globalist elites.”
Poland’s Catholic-nationalist Sovereign Poland opposition party also celebrated Vance’s nomination, with MP Janusz Kowalski dreaming of the day a new Trump administration “will mobilize the entire free world against the regime” of pro-European Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
Sue Allan, Veronika Melkozerova and Barbara Moens contributed to this report.
