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Kamala Harris entered the presidential race a little over two weeks ago as an underdog.
Since then, Democrats’ vibes have been fantastic — and Harris’s polling has gotten better. But it hasn’t improved as much as you might think. At least not yet.
Per polls, Trump is no longer the clear favorite to win. But Harris hasn’t taken a clear lead either. Polling, particularly in swing states, suggests an extremely close race that could go either way.
To be clear: This is a major improvement for Democrats, as compared to where President Joe Biden’s numbers had been.
Late last year, Trump gained a durable poll lead on Biden nationally and in nearly every swing state. For Democrats, erasing that lead is a very big deal, and it helps explain the Trump campaign’s flailing of late. The Trump team thought they were sure to beat Biden, and now they are no longer so sure.
But a Harris win also looks very far from certain. That’s in part because, due to the magic of the Electoral College, national polls don’t determine the outcome, swing states do. And the state of play in swing states is murky.
Last week’s Bloomberg/Morning Consult polls were encouraging for Harris overall, showing her taking a big lead in Michigan and smaller leads in Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada. The catch is that they also showed Trump ahead in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, plus a tie in Georgia. If those polls were accurate, the election would come down entirely to Georgia’s outcome.
And other recent swing state polls — from Fox, Public Policy Polling, and Emerson — have shown Trump continuing to hold small leads in most swing states.
It is possible that the sparse swing state polling has been slow to catch up to Harris’s improving national vibes — and that a set of new polls showing Harris gaining a clear advantage is right around the corner.
But in both 2016 and 2020, Trump performed significantly better in key Electoral College states than Democrats (and most pollsters) expected — enough to thwart Hillary Clinton’s popular vote win, and to very nearly thwart Biden’s. Harris’s main challenge will be to stop that from happening again.
Harris has been in a honeymoon phase. What will happen after the honeymoon ends?
The past two weeks have gone about as well as could have been expected for Democrats, and far better than many pundits predicted. With the messy process of pushing Biden aside completed, there has been a joyful embrace of Harris as his replacement. Democrats believe they now have a real chance to win again. Despite being an incumbent vice president, Harris in some ways can be said to embody the new — a 59-year-old woman of color who has not been president before — in contrast to Trump, a 78-year-old former president. She has a claim to being the change candidate.
Harris has also benefited from quite positive media coverage. In part that’s simply because things have, objectively, gone well for her so far. But she’s also benefiting from what’s often called the “honeymoon” phenomenon, in which a newly elevated political leader gets positive press simply because of their newness. And the thing about honeymoons is that they eventually end.
For instance: When Harris was running in the Democratic presidential primary in 2019, her first debate — when she criticized Biden’s 1970s opposition to school desegregation busing in a moment that went viral — was tremendously successful, sending her surging in the polls.
But as the campaign went on, she struggled to sustain that momentum. Days later, she acknowledged that her views on modern busing policy weren’t any different from Biden’s. Later on, she struggled to outline a coherent health care policy. And her campaign “became a hotbed of drama and backbiting,” according to CNN. She eventually dropped out of the race before voting began.
This time around, Harris has masterfully played the inside game in lining up party support for her campaign, she’s drawn enthusiastic crowds, and she’s raised a gargantuan pile of cash. But there are other things she hasn’t done yet. For instance: She hasn’t given an interview or press conference since Biden quit, which is something Republicans are grousing about. Her choice of a running mate could also lead to controversy.
Democrats might hope the honeymoon can be stretched out for three more months. But inevitably, contentious issues will arise for Harris, as they do for all presidential candidates. Media coverage of her will turn at least somewhat less positive. Her campaign’s prospects will depend on how she weathers the storms that are sure to come.
