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Can the Canadiens actually make the NHL playoffs? Here’s a breakdown of the wild card math

<img src="https://www.mtlblog.com/media-library/a-habs-themed-mural-outside-the-bell-centre-in-montreal.jpg?id=59783350&width=1200&height=600&coordinates=0%2C12%2C0%2C12"/><br/><br/><p>The <a href="https://www.mtlblog.com/tag/montreal-canadiens" target="_blank">Montreal Canadiens</a> being in the playoffs may just come down to a coin toss. At least that's what oddsmakers have determined.</p><p><span></span><span style="background-color: initial;">On </span><span style="background-color: initial;">Tuesday </span><span style="background-color: initial;">night, </span><span style="background-color: initial;">captain </span><span style="background-color: initial;">Nick </span><span style="background-color: initial;">Suzuki </span><span style="background-color: initial;">played </span><span style="background-color: initial;">hero </span><span style="background-color: initial;">against </span><span style="background-color: initial;">the </span><span style="background-color: initial;">Florida </span><span style="background-color: initial;">Panthers, </span><span style="background-color: initial;">tying </span><span style="background-color: initial;">the </span><span style="background-color: initial;">game </span><span style="background-color: initial;">in </span><span style="background-color: initial;">the </span><span style="background-color: initial;">final </span><span style="background-color: initial;">seconds </span><span style="background-color: initial;">and </span><span style="background-color: initial;">sealing </span><span style="background-color: initial;">a </span><span style="background-color: initial;">quick </span><span style="background-color: initial;">overtime </span><span style="background-color: initial;">win. </span><span style="background-color: initial;">That </span><span style="background-color: initial;">clutch </span><span style="background-color: initial;">3-2 </span><span style="background-color: initial;">victory </span><span style="background-color: initial;">gave </span><span style="background-color: initial;">the </span><span style="background-color: initial;">Habs </span><span style="background-color: initial;">some </span><span style="background-color: initial;">breathing </span><span style="background-color: initial;">room </span><span style="background-color: initial;">over </span><span style="background-color: initial;">the </span><span style="background-color: initial;">teams chasing them</span><span style="background-color: initial;"> </span><span style="background-color: initial;">in </span><span style="background-color: initial;">the </span><span style="background-color: initial;">standings.</span></p><blockquote class="rm-embed twitter-tweet" data-partner="rebelmouse" data-twitter-tweet-id="1907283430733234471"> <div style="margin:1em 0"></div> — (@) <a href="https://twitter.com/NHL/status/1907283430733234471"></a> </blockquote> <script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p>As of April 2, 2025, Montreal sits fifth in the Atlantic Division with a 35-30-9 record, racking up 79 points with just eight games left in the regular season. Their latest win also keeps them clinging to the second (and final) wild card spot in the Eastern Conference.</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-rebelmouse-image"> <img alt="The NHL's Atlantic Division standings as of April 2, 2025. " class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="7ca3acadfc272451ee6e4d9a3c66c7d7" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" id="b3917" loading="lazy" src="https://www.mtlblog.com/media-library/the-nhl-s-atlantic-division-standings-as-of-april-2-2025.png?id=59782848&width=980"/> <small class="image-media media-caption" placeholder="Add Photo Caption...">The NHL's Atlantic Division standings as of April 2, 2025. </small><small class="image-media media-photo-credit" placeholder="Add Photo Credit..."><a href="https://www.nhl.com/standings/2025-04-01/wildcard" target="_blank">NHL</a></small></p><p><br/></p><p><span style="background-color: initial;">If the playoffs started today, the Canadiens would play the Washington Capitals, who lead the Eastern Conference with 102 points, in Round 1. The 16th-place Habs famously upset the first-place Caps back in 2010 when backup goalie Jaroslav Halak became a brick wall, propelling Montreal on an epic run.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: initial;">Could history repeat itself? Let's not get too ahead of ourselves.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: initial;"><span></span>According to <a href="https://moneypuck.com/predictions.htm" target="_blank">MoneyPuck.com</a>, the Canadiens have a 50.1% shot at punching their postseason ticket — a razor-thin edge that could vanish in a heartbeat.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: initial;"></span><span style="background-color: initial;">The Red Wings, Blue Jackets, and Rangers are all lurking close behind, turning every game into a must-win. Sure, the Habs are also stuck in a tough division, but that matters less if they're going to lock down a wild card berth. </span></p><p><span style="background-color: initial;">Here's how the Eastern Conference wild card race looks right now:</span></p><ul><li><strong>Wild Card 1: Ottawa Senators</strong> - 82 points (8 games remaining)</li><li><strong>Wild Card 2: Montreal Canadiens</strong> - 79 points (8 games remaining)</li><li><strong>In the Hunt:</strong><ul><li>Columbus Blue Jackets: 77 points (9 games remaining)</li><li>New York Rangers: 77 points (8 games remaining)</li><li>Detroit Red Wings: 75 points (8 games remaining)</li></ul></li></ul><div>The biggest threat to playoff hockey in Montreal might be the New York Rangers, who, according to Money Puck, have a 26.2% chance of breaking through. </div><div>Columbus, which has an 18.8% chance of making the playoffs, has a game in hand over the other teams in the mix, which could give them a leg up on the competition. But with upcoming opponents like the red-hot Washington Capitals (twice), the Toronto Maple Leafs, and Ottawa Senators (also twice), they may not be able to string together the wins to get it done.</div><p><span style="background-color: initial;">Montreal's schedule, however, is more of a mixed bag. They've got winnable matchups against non-playoff teams like the Boston Bruins, Philadelphia Flyers and Chicago Blackhawks, but they'll also face tough tests against the Maple Leafs, Senators, and Carolina Hurricanes. Every point matters, and a couple of losses could flip that 50.1% chance into a long summer.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: initial;"><span data-redactor-style="background-color: initial;" style="background-color: initial;">For the casual fan, here's the gist: if the Habs keep snagging wins like they did against Florida — and get a little help from other teams tripping up their wild card rivals — they've got a solid shot. Stumble too much, though, and that coin toss lands tails.</span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: initial;"><span data-redactor-style="background-color: initial;" style="background-color: initial;"></span><span style="background-color: initial;">Suzuki, for one, is locked in. <a href="https://www.nhl.com/canadiens/video/postgame-vs-fla-suzuki-6370903636112" target="_blank">Speaking with reporters after Tuesday's comeback</a>, he said, </span>"We know we can control our own destiny and we really want to be in the playoffs -- I haven't got to play in a full building yet in the playoffs so I really want that."</span></p><p><span style="background-color: initial;"></span><span style="background-color: initial;">It's safe to say that most Habs fans, who have suffered through three years of rebuilding, are itching for something we haven't seen since 2021. Another Cinderella run to the Stanley Cup Final might be a long shot, but just the idea of getting meaningful hockey in the spring has us buzzing.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: initial;"></span><span style="background-color: initial;">The Canadiens will look to keep the good vibes going when they face the Boston Bruins at the Bell Centre this Thursday at 7 p.m. ET. </span></p>