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By Sugeeswara Senadhira/Daily News
Colombo, August 2: Putting an end to weeks of speculation and rumours, President Ranil Wickremesinghe announced his candidature for the Presidential Election slated for September 21 making it a 4-cornered contest. Three other leading candidates are Sajith Premadasa of Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), Anura Kumara Dissanayake of Jathika Jana Balawegaya (JJB) and Dammika Perera, the most likely candidate of Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP).
Although host of other candidates including Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka and Wijayadasa Rajapakshe are also in the field, the main contest is likely to be between the above four candidates.
Wickremesinghe got a massive boost when 92 MPs, vast majority of them SLPPers, extended support to the United National Party (UNP) leader who is contesting as an independent candidate. This came immediately after the decision taken by Rajapaksas to field a SLPP candidate. Even Wimal Weerawansa, most vociferous opponent of Wickremesinghe, grudgingly acknowledged, “Ranil, who was at the bottom has suddenly rose in the list of candidates”.
According to exit polls in the last six months, there were position changes of the then two leading candidates who announced their candidature well in advance. Once they said, Anura Kumara Dissanayake was ahead and then stated Sajith Premadasa overtook him. Now with Wickremesinghe’s entry with a bang, whole scenario has undergone a swift change. Although different opinion polls give markedly different predictions, so far none of the reliable ones had given a clear 50% to any of the candidates. However, exit polls are yet to announce their prediction after Wickremesinghe’s official entry.
In the first eight presidential elections from 1982 to 2019, there were only two leading candidates at each election and one of them was expected to get more than 50% plus one vote needed for an outright win. Hence, there was no requirement to count the second preferential votes to decide a winner.
However, this time the scenario is different. Most of the exit polls and opinion polls predict less than 40% of the votes for the leading candidate and 15% to 30% each of the other leading contenders. Most analysts agree that there is no clear-cut winner and the race to the presidency is becoming a multiple-horse race. Wickremesighe’s advantage is that he brought the economy back on rails and ended the shortage of essential items.
In a scenario of none of the candidates get more than 50% of the votes, the importance of the second preference becomes paramount.Although Sri Lankan voters eagerly wait for an opportunity to vote to fulfil their rights in ensuring the democratic process this year, after two other elections – provincial councils and local government – were postponed due to legal, economic or other unspecified reasons, the average voter is not used to recording its second or third preferences in a presidential poll.
The candidate who polls more than 50 percent of votes is declared winner. The counting of second choices of voters will be required in case no candidate secures more than 50 percent of votes. Then the votes polled for losing candidates will be counted. Their second and third preferences will be added to the first two candidates to decide the final winner.
In a recent media interview former Election Commission’s Chairman Mahinda Deshapriya explained it in most simple manner. If there are five candidates named A, B, C D and E with the total number of valid votes polled by all of them being 100. Let’s assume that A has 40, B 35, C 15, D six and E 4. After the first count is completed, the contest is between A and B as the candidates coming first and second. They are considered remaining candidates. The second or third preferences marked in their ballot papers are no longer considered for counting in the second round because they are now the only remaining candidates whereas the others are eliminated from the contest.
Then the counting of the ballot papers marked for C will take up first. In case, a voter has marked his first preference to C and second to A or B, it will be considered as a vote for A or B. Then, this ballot paper is inserted into the ballot box meant for A or B. The third preference marked in this ballot paper is not considered. Also a ballot paper marked for C as first choice bears second or third preferences to D or E, it will not be considered because these two are not in the contest or are eliminated candidates. Similarly, in the event of a voter marking first preference to C, second to D or E and third to A or B, it will be considered a vote to A or B as third preference.
The ballot papers cast for C, D and E are checked for second and third preferences validly marked for A and B.
If we assume that A gets three additional votes with his total moving up to 43 and if B gets ten more additional second preference votes will have a total of 45. The grand total is now 88. Out of it, B gets more than 50 percent and is declared President. If any of the two does not get additional votes after counting second and third preferences, the candidate ‘A’, who has the highest number in the first round itself will be declared winner.
In an unlikely event of a tie, where both A and B get equal number of votes finally, the Election Commission can resort to a raffle draw to select the winner.
Voters can mark their preferences as 1, 2 or 3 in front of the symbols of the candidates of their choice. If they are used to vote for their first choice by marking ‘x’, they can mark 2 as their second preference and 3 as their third preference.
The second preference will help a candidate who polled at last 40 per cent in the first round because even if the second preference vote is distributed evenly among the first two, the candidate already ahead could forge ahead to be the winner. However, if someone’s first preference vote hovers around 30 per cent or less, he would require bulk voting in his favour as the second preference.
The unanimous opinion of most impartial analysts is that the second preference would be more advantageous to Wickremasinghe and Premadasa than to Dissanayake. Those who vote for Wickremesinghe are likely to give the second preference to Premadasa because both of them follow similar policies and principles. Similarly those who vote for Premadasa are likely to cast their second preference in favour of Wickremesinghe. Radical candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake will not get many second preference votes, analysts predict.
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