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Wisconsin Republican Eric Hovde’s deep pockets essentially cleared his Senate primary field. Republicans are banking on his largesse to help propel him through the general election, too.
Hovde is one of this cycle’s top self-funders, loaning his campaign $13 million ahead of Tuesday’s primary. The businessperson, who unsuccessfully ran for Senate in 2012, is all but guaranteed to claim the GOP nod to face Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), thanks in part to backing from the National Republican Senatorial Committee and former President Donald Trump.
Wisconsin’s primary on Tuesday will solidify the last major battleground race for the upper chamber — and put a bow on the NRSC’s efforts to play a heavy hand in this year’s primaries, with a goal of picking candidates who can win the general election, not just appeal to the GOP base.
In neighboring Minnesota, another member of the progressive “Squad” — Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar — faces a primary challenge on Tuesday, just a week after the cohort lost a second member, Missouri Rep. Cori Bush, in a high-dollar primary.
There are also elections taking place in Connecticut and Vermont, though those are happening with little intrigue.
Here are the races to watch on Tuesday:
— WI-Sen: Both Hovde and Baldwin, who’s running for her third term, have been campaigning like it’s the general election, slamming each other with tens of millions of dollars already spent on the airwaves. Baldwin’s campaign has dropped a whopping $24 million on advertising from the beginning of the year through the primary, according to ad tracker AdImpact, and Hovde’s campaign has placed $15 million — spending that’s likely to ramp up in the closing stretch of the election. And that’s not to mention the millions of dollars in outside spending that have already poured in.
— WI-01: Plenty of former members of Congress have unsuccessfully sought a comeback this year. Former Democratic Rep. Peter Barca, who served one term two decades ago, is hoping for better odds in his race against Republican Rep. Bryan Steil.
Both men are uncontested in their primaries and will face off in the fall for this seat, which Trump won by 2 points in 2020. Steil fended off his little-known Democratic challenger in the midterms by 9 points, though Democrats are hoping a more established figure could pose a stiffer challenge.
— WI-03: A contentious Democratic primary is underway between small business owner Rebecca Cooke and state Rep. Katrina Shankland in this battleground district. Cooke, who lost in the Democratic primary for this seat in the midterms, is portraying herself as a political outsider, while Shankland is leaning on her experience in the state legislature. Cooke has vastly outraised Shankland and has the backing of the moderate Blue Dogs. Shankland has the support of both of Wisconsin’s Democratic House members, Reps. Mark Pocan and Gwen Moore.
Both Cooke and Shankland have argued they are the best to take down first-term Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden in the district, which Trump won by around 5 points in 2020. Cooke has emphasized her growing up on a dairy farm and understanding of rural communities, while Shankland has touted her bipartisan credentials in the state Assembly.
They’ve spent around the same amount on the airwaves. But Cooke has benefited from outside spending from WelcomePAC and New Democrat Majority, groups supporting centrist Democrats. Shankland’s campaign has accused Cooke of lying about her background and hit her for not having political experience, while Cooke’s campaign has sought to tie Shankland to Republicans.
— WI-08: A trio of Republicans are jockeying to succeed former Rep. Mike Gallagher, who resigned from Congress earlier this year in this red-leaning district.
Trump threw his support behind Tony Wied, giving the relatively unknown businessperson a leg up over his two opponents, former state Senate President Roger Roth and state Sen. André Jacque. Jacque lags behind the other two in fundraising, and faces questions about the origins of his campaign cash.
Democrat Kristen Lyerly, an OBGYN, is running for her party’s nod uncontested, although she’ll face an uphill climb against the GOP nominee.
Candidates will be appearing on the primary ballot twice: Once for the special election to fill the rest of Gallagher’s term, and once for the complete term beginning next year.
— Wisconsin state Legislature: The state legislature is likely to look different in 2025, due to new lines Democratic Gov. Tony Evers signed into law earlier this year. The new maps undo longstanding Republican gerrymanders that effectively guaranteed that the GOP could not lose control of the state legislature.
Late last year, the Wisconsin Supreme Court — with a new liberal majority — ruled that the Republican-drawn maps were unconstitutional. Republicans in the legislature said they passed these new lines, which were initially proposed by Evers in that lawsuit, so they wouldn’t risk getting an even more unfavorable redraw from the court. Most legislative Democrats voted against them for that same reason.
Due to the redraw, many state legislators are running in new seats.
— MN-Sen: Republicans have struggled statewide in Minnesota. But the GOP is counting on Royce White to block Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar from a fourth term.
The Minnesota Republican Party endorsed White, a former basketball player and ally of Steve Bannon who’s bogged down with scandals over his campaign finances, child support and comments he’s made concerning women and Jewish people. His stiffest competition is Joe Fraser, a Navy veteran. Still, all of the Republicans are severely behind Klobuchar when it comes to fundraising, and their longshot challenges are unlikely to see any significant national support. Klobuchar doesn’t face any serious primary competition.
— MN-02: Former federal prosecutor Joe Teirab, who’s backed by Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson, is poised to claim the Republican nomination against Democratic Rep. Angie Craig in this battleground.
Republicans were initially bracing for a competitive primary between Teirab and Tayler Rahm, whom district delegates endorsed over Teirab. Teirab remained in the race after losing the endorsement, despite previously saying that he would drop out if he didn’t get their support.
But just weeks before the primary, Rahm ended his campaign to join Trump’s operation as a senior adviser. Rahm will still appear on the ballot, and some of his supporters suggested that he could still eke out a win. But given Trump’s endorsement of Teirab in the wake of Rahm’s suspended bid, that’s unlikely.
— MN-05: Omar is the latest member of the Squad to face a primary challenge. But unlike some of her colleagues, she doesn’t appear to be in as much trouble.
Pro-Israel groups, namely the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, have largely stayed out of the race. Those groups have dedicated tens of millions of dollars to unseat candidates they deem as not sufficiently pro-Israel, with some of its most notable successes coming from the defeats of Rep. Jamaal Bowman (N.Y.) and Bush in their primaries.
But AIPAC has been strategic about which races it’s investing in. Both Bowman and Bush had other vulnerabilities that contributed to their losses, like voting against the bipartisan infrastructure bill and debt ceiling deal — issues that AIPAC harped on. The group also skipped over other members of the Squad who faced primary challenges, including Rep. Summer Lee (Pa.), who handily won her primary earlier this year.
Omar faces three opponents, including Don Samuels, a former member of the Minneapolis City Council who came 2 points shy of unseating her in the midterms. Samuels has complained about the lack of intervention from outside groups on his behalf. The incumbent has a hefty fundraising advantage over him.
— MN-07: Republican Rep. Michelle Fischbach faces a challenge from businessperson Steve Boyd, who said he aligns himself with the Freedom Caucus, in this safe GOP seat. Neither secured the endorsement of district delegates earlier this year, which Boyd touted as a “victory.” Still, the Trump-endorsed Fischbach boasts a substantial cash advantage over her challenger and has been boosted by establishment-aligned groups.
Polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern in Vermont; 8 p.m. Eastern in Connecticut; and 9 p.m. Eastern in Minnesota and Wisconsin.
