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Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, knows a thing or two about assassinations. Lately, he’s been telling U.S. lawmakers he’s at risk of one.
The Saudi royal has mentioned to members of Congress that he’s putting his life in danger by pursuing a grand bargain with the U.S. and Israel that includes normalizing Saudi-Israeli ties. On at least one occasion, he has invoked Anwar Sadat, the Egyptian leader slain after striking a peace deal with Israel, asking what the U.S. did to protect Sadat. He also has discussed the threats he faces in explaining why any such deal must include a true path to a Palestinian state — especially now that the war in Gaza has heightened Arab fury toward Israel.
The talks were described to me by a former U.S. official briefed on the conversations and two other people with knowledge of them. All of the people, like others quoted in this column, were granted anonymity to describe a high-stakes, sensitive topic. The discussions have been weighty and serious, but one takeaway, the people said, is that the crown prince, often referred to as MBS, appears intent on striking the mega-deal with the U.S. and Israel despite the risks involved. He sees it as crucial to his country’s future.
The broad contours of the largely secret and still-developing pact have emerged in various reports, including my own. It includes multiple U.S. commitments to the Saudis, including security guarantees via a treaty, aid on a civilian nuclear program and economic investment in areas such as technology. According to some reports, in exchange Saudi Arabia would limit its dealings with China. It also would establish diplomatic and other ties with Israel — a huge boon for the Israelis given Saudi Arabia’s importance among Muslim nations.
To MBS’ chagrin, however, the Israeli government has been unwilling to include a credible path to a Palestinian state in the pact.
“The way he put it was, ‘Saudis care very deeply about this, and the street throughout the Middle East cares deeply about this, and my tenure as the keeper of the holy sites of Islam will not be secure if I don’t address what is the most pressing issue of justice in our region,’” said one of the people with knowledge of conversations MBS has had with regional and American leaders.
When I first heard about the Saudi royal’s conversations, I was intrigued and skeptical.
I thought, of course, of the late Jamal Khashoggi, the journalist MBS is accused of ordering killed. Now MBS is the one fearing for his life? Does this count as irony?
I also remembered the many past reports of how MBS didn’t care about the Palestinians, seeing their cause as slowing down Arab advancement and their leaders as inept. I wondered why the threat he faces now is more serious than the threats he’s long faced: He’s pushed through dramatic social changes in Saudi Arabia, sidelining many of his relatives and conservative Islamist clerics who no doubt seethe about it.
But the more I thought about it and talked to people smarter than me, the more I’ve come to view MBS’ framing of the situation as a clever diplomatic marketing strategy: He’s saying his life is in danger to push U.S. officials to raise pressure on Israel to bend to a deal he likes.
Arguing that you’re putting your neck on the line for a potentially epochal deal is certainly a compelling way to get your interlocutors’ attention.
In fairness, it’s probably also true.
Peacemaking is a dangerous business. That’s especially true in the Middle East, where even before the Gaza war MBS was gambling by toying with the idea of establishing diplomatic ties with Israel.
“It’s another way of saying, ‘This is a momentous decision for me. That’s why I need something for it,’” said Dennis Ross, a veteran Middle East negotiator who’s worked for several American presidents.
Saudi representatives whom I reached out to were, unsurprisingly, hesitant to detail the crown prince’s conversations. The Saudi embassy in Washington declined comment.
One senior Saudi official told me, though, that MBS believes that without resolving the Palestinian issue, his country ultimately won’t benefit from the supposed economic, technological and military benefits of the overall deal. That’s because “we’re not going to have regional security and stability without addressing the Palestinian issue,” the official said.
His comments made sense in the context of how others described MBS to me — as a Saudi nationalist. Whether he personally cares about the Palestinian cause is irrelevant. He’ll support it if it benefits Saudi Arabia.
Like it or not, the mega-deal in the works could massively change the Middle East, not least by seeing Israel and Saudi Arabia act as a united front against Iran.
Given the electoral calendar, and the need for Senate ratification of any treaty involved, the bargain isn’t going to become a reality anytime soon. But I anticipate that no matter whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidency in November, either one will still pursue some version of it.
When the Palestinian militants of Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, sparking the war that continues today, many observers feared the grand bargain was dead.
As the death toll in Gaza mounted — some 40,000 now, including civilians and militants — citizens of Arab countries have raged against what they see as Israeli atrocities. It was the latest wave of anger from people across the region who already despised Israel for its decades-long occupation of land claimed by Palestinians.
Surprisingly, the top players involved did not abandon the bargain — viewing it as critical to the region’s long-term stability. Some of the offers on the table, however, have had to change.
Prior to Oct. 7, the negotiators had brought in Palestinian leaders to see what could be included for their people in the deal, something a senior Biden administration official pointed out to me when I sought comment from the White House for this column.
At that point, some small concessions — agreements for future talks or something — might have satisfied the Saudis. But now the demand is “a clear, irreversible path” to a Palestinian state.
MBS is an autocrat who has clamped down on political dissent, but he still cares about public opinion.
The Palestinian issue is sensitive in particular because it hurts him with younger Saudis who otherwise support his social reforms and provide a bulwark against religious hardliners and royals who oppose him.
“He has a very young population that has been in many ways energized, galvanized by the first major conflict between Israelis and Palestinians that many of them have seen in their lives. It doesn’t take being inside his head to understand that this would be weighing on him,” a second senior Biden administration official told me.
But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed never to allow for the creation of a Palestinian state, as have far-right members of his governing coalition. Much of the Israeli public opposes the idea as well after Hamas slaughtered 1,200 people on their soil Oct. 7.
So far, there’s little evidence that outside pressure will change Netanyahu’s mind — not even demands from President Joe Biden have convinced Netanyahu to lay out a serious plan for how to deal with Gaza after the war, much less the Palestinians as whole.
I asked Israeli officials for comment, and the best one would offer was:
“Our understanding is that the governments of the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Israel are all interested in pursuing a deal that covers both U.S.-Saudi bilateral issues and Israel-Saudi normalization. However, it would require certain conditions for such a deal to materialize, not all of which are currently in place.”
It’s far from clear, then, if MBS’ strategy of emphasizing the risk he’s taking will convince Netanyahu that he, too, should take a risk.
And it would be a risk. Another Middle Eastern figure assassinated for pursuing peace was Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin.
Still, both MBS and the U.S. are likely hoping that Netanyahu will ask himself what’s best for his country in the long run, not just in the traumatic now.
