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The Conservative leadership contest is something of a sideshow to the meaningful politics of government. Whoever wins will inherit a depleted party reeling from arguably its worst ever election defeat. It comprises only 121 MPs, many now in marginal seats (77 are defending majorities where just a 5% swing would see them out).
But worse than that, it is a party that no longer seems to know why it exists. Are any of the contenders capable of leading the Conservatives back into relevance?
Well, six have thrown their hats into the ring: early frontrunner Kemi Badenoch; James Cleverly, who has topped some opinion polls; Tom Tugendhat; Robert Jenrick, who seems to have built some momentum; Mel Stride; and Priti Patel.
Following a series of votes in the parliamentary party, the top four will be presented at September’s party conference. A further two ballots will then produce the two finalists, who will go head-to-head in an online vote with party members. So MPs will inevitably deny many members the opportunity to vote for their favourite candidate.
Tugendhat and Stride represent the more moderate “one-nation” wing of the Conservative party which was once dominant but was all but purged by Boris Johnson in 2019.
Badenoch, Stride and Patel remain the standard bearers of the right, now the party mainstream, which happily engages in culture war nonsense and occasional flirting with Nigel Farage. Cleverly perhaps straddles the two, ostensibly a reasonable pragmatist but happy to champion unworkable policies if they prove popular.
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Tainted legacy
Holding office for the past 14 years, the Conservatives’ unenviable legacy is arguably one of a Britain reshaped for the worse: damaged, poorer, more divided and with waning influence. The schadenfreude is that the course down which they dragged the country has destroyed the Tory party’s own reputation for competence and any claim it had to be the natural party of government.
Moreover, by turning itself into a tiresome populist movement, willing to ride roughshod over the constitution, attack institutions and ignore the rule of law, it has all but abandoned its own philosophical appeal of “conservatism”.
The electoral success of Reform and the pull of divisive, Trumpy, culture war politics presents an easy option to drift even further to the right, now the party is unincumbered by office and decisions that matter. It would make opposition straightforward and generate regular cheery headlines in the popular press.
But while Reform is biting at their heels from the right, remember the Conservatives lost swathes of seats in Middle England to the Liberal Democrats. It’s hard to reconcile how moving even further to the right will persuade these moderate voters to switch back from Ed Davey’s centrist pro-EU party, now a major third force in British politics.
New political crush?
There was a time, 20 years ago, when the Conservative party was so in awe of Tony Blair that they created their own version of him in the form of David Cameron. Blair had rebuilt the Labour party into a modern election machine and the Tories were powerless against his leadership.
It took three failed opposition leaders – William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Howard – before they struck upon the “if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em” strategy of a modernised Tory party with a fresh faced “heir to Blair” leader. Today, there are signs that contenders for the Tory leadership have a new political crush – none other than Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Starmer’s achievements as leader since 2019 are astonishing on the face of it. In just one parliament, he took the Labour party from the disaster of what many saw as Jeremy Corbyn’s “fantasy” politics with the worst election result since 1935 and delivered a landslide victory.
He first won his party’s leadership by appealing to the grassroots, many of whom were true Corbynites, but then wasted no time in jettisoning the hard left and re-occupying the centre ground. He brought unity and drove his party to respectability and electability.
That Starmer accomplished this in just five years is a testament to his leadership. But it also reflects the clear desire among voters to remove the Tories from office. There is a glimmer of hope here for the next Conservative leader in that Starmer’s success in 2024 is the result of a new fluidity in the electorate, which has swung wildly since 2019, when it delivered a large majority to Johnson.
Frankly, none of the six candidates compare favourably to Starmer but new leaders can sometimes surprise. If they look across the aisle they will see they now have a blueprint – a ready-made comeback strategy. Will any of them attempt a Starmer?
Inevitably, the first evidence is of steps in the opposite direction – because this is how the contest will initially be won. The contenders are already pandering to the Conservative members who will decide between them. This selectorate tends to be older, wealthier and more insular than the average Briton. Indeed, all six candidates are all now small-state, low-tax champions.
But every one of them has signed up to the Express “winter fuel campaign” to oppose the Treasury’s planned to move towards means tested rather than universal winter fuel payments to the over 65s, described by the paper as a “callous attack on pensioners” but representing £1.4 billion of public spending. There’s also been a doubling down on immigration and the failed Rwanda scheme as well as cheerleading an increasingly unpopular Brexit.
And it’s easy to see why. Recent polling suggests that the overwhelming concern of Conservative party members is immigration. But in July’s election, when the Conservatives did so badly, voters were most worried about the cost of living, health and the economy.
Will the winner lead as he or she has campaigned to the Tory faithful, or have the courage to ape Starmer and drag the party back to the mainstream? Will they be prepared to articulate policies with mass appeal, not just pleasing to some pensioners and the Daily Mail?
It’s a tall order so soon after defeat. And, as the Tory membership seem unlikely to rally behind a one nation candidate, the challenge of marching back to the centre will probably sit at the feet of a right winger.
Stephen Barber does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
