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Kamala Harris has that new-candidate shine, and it’s propelled her into the lead.
Just three weeks into her campaign, the vice president is riding a wave of support in the horserace polling, reversing a persistent gap that Joe Biden was never able to overcome.
But it’s hard to know how real — or durable— that is.
It’s been a historic month in American politics, and in a vacuum any one of its major events would shake the race and create a temporary bump in the polls: the July 13 assassination attempt on Donald Trump, the Republican convention, Trump’s running mate selection, Biden dropping out of the presidential race, Harris picking a vice presidential candidate. But it’s impossible to disentangle the effects of any single event to establish the baseline state of the race, and we’re about to head into yet another moment that would normally move the needle: next week’s Democratic convention.
How has the race changed structurally? And if Trump bounces back in front, which numbers will presage that before it shows up in the horserace?
A glut of surveys over the next few days will start to answer those questions, and it will be followed by an intense two months of polling. There are several key measures to watch that have so far buoyed Harris’ nascent candidacy: metrics like her personal favorability, which has spiked, or Trump’s narrowing advantage on the economy, one of the former president’s core issues.
“Presidential campaigns are a marathon, and this one has turned into a sprint,” said Neil Newhouse, the lead pollster for Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign. “And that tends to favor the candidate who is new on the horizon.”
Here are five numbers to watch, beyond the horserace, to understand the real state of the race:
Kamala Harris’ favorable rating
On June 27: 39 percent (source: RealClearPolitics average)
Now: 45 percent
Voters are seeing Harris in a new light since she became Democrats’ presidential candidate.
Throughout the past three years, there’s been a wide gulf between the number of voters who had a favorable opinion of the vice president, and the significantly larger share who viewed her unfavorably.
That gap has closed. In the New York Times/Siena College polls released this past weekend, just as many likely voters across Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin viewed her favorably (50 percent) as unfavorably (48 percent).
That doesn’t mean it will last, though: Trump’s campaign has started an advertising barrage in battleground states, trying to paint her as “dangerously liberal.” That could dent her favorable ratings, especially as scrutiny of her record ratchets up following her initial campaign rollout.
“Image is a precursor to ballot change,” said Newhouse. “You’ll see her image change before the ballot changes. You’ll see her unfavs go up, her very unfavs in particular.”
But Trump, too, is at a high-water mark in favorability — at least since the 2020 election — following the assassination attempt and Republican convention. That means his numbers might also be artificially high and could come back down to his more consistent levels — which are, on balance, unpopular.
“With Kamala Harris, it’s like ‘A Star is Born,’” said Mark Mellman, the lead pollster for then-Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in the 2004 presidential race. “It’s not unreal. It’s not unnatural. It’s not fake. But it’s not necessarily permanent. I can certainly imagine a situation where both candidates’ favorabilities decline a little bit.”
Third-party vote share
July 21: 12.2 points (source: RealClearPolitics average)
Now: 7.1 points
In the weeks since Harris replaced Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket, the percentage of voters telling pollsters they plan to vote for one of the three independent or third-party candidates — Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West or Jill Stein — has been cut almost in half.
This is technically part of the horserace question, but it’s also specifically revealing of an election in which more voters — thanks to Harris’ surge in popularity and Trump’s post-assassination and post-conviction uptick in favorability — actually like their main options. That wasn’t the case before the Democratic candidate swap, when as many as a quarter of voters said they disliked both Biden and Trump.
Those so-called “double-haters” were poised to be decisive. But now there are fewer of them — a Monmouth University poll out on Wednesday showed only 8 percent of registered voters have a favorable opinion of neither major-party candidate — and thus fewer voters willing to pull the lever for Kennedy, West or Stein.
Voter enthusiasm
Democrats who are “very enthusiastic”: 62 percent (source: New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin)
Republicans who are “very enthusiastic”: 63 percent
The more enthusiastic party doesn’t always win: In 2012, polls famously showed Romney’s supporters were more enthusiastic about voting than President Barack Obama’s.
But Harris has energized Democrats with her candidacy in a way that Biden — and the specter of a second Trump term — hadn’t. In the New York Times/Siena College polls, Democrats and Harris supporters were just as likely as Republicans and Trump supporters to say they were “very enthusiastic” about voting.
The numbers were even starker in the Monmouth poll. A whopping 85 percent of Democrats described themselves as enthusiastic about the upcoming Harris-Trump race, compared to 71 percent of Republicans. The percentage of enthusiastic Republicans was unchanged from June, when Monmouth pollsters asked about a “Trump-Biden rematch.” But it’s a major shift for Democrats: Only 46 percent were enthusiastic about that rematch before the debate.
Enthusiastic votes don’t count more than those from voters who aren’t as excited — but in a close race, closing that energy deficit could be crucial.
Who do you think would better handle the economy?
June: Trump 54 percent, Biden 45 percent (source: NPR/PBS News/Marist College poll)
Now: Trump 51 percent, Harris 48 percent
Trump had long held a commanding lead over Biden on the dominant issue of the race: the economy. But that, too, has been upended by the switch at the top of the Democratic ticket.
Polls now show Trump with only a slim edge on the economy against Harris: 3 points in a national NPR/PBS News/Marist College poll, and 6 points across the three Rust Belt battlegrounds in the New York Times/Siena College poll.
Harris is eager to build her own record. She’s set to hold an event in North Carolina on Friday touting her plan to lower costs, a sign that Biden’s inflation record could be a millstone around her candidacy if she can’t carve her own profile.
Direction of the country
On June 27: 25 percent right direction, 65 percent wrong track
Today: 25 percent right direction, 65 percent wrong track
This metric isn’t changing. But how voters think about it might be.
Prior to last month, Trump represented change. And with two in three voters seeing the country as headed on the wrong track, that was a favorable position for him.
But Harris’ entry has muddled Trump’s status as the change candidate. Now she’s the one laying a claim to the mantle of new and — yes — younger. It’s harder to be fresh and exciting when you’re 78 years old and the first person in 80 years to be your party’s presidential nominee in three consecutive elections.
As they will with the economy, Trump and his allies will be trying to convince voters who think the country is on the wrong track that Harris’ role as vice president makes her responsible for the current state of the country.
