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BERLIN — German Chancellor Olaf Scholz gained a reprieve following a rare win for his Social Democratic Party (SPD), but his three-party coalition may still not be long for this world.
Soon after the SPD’s narrow victory over the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in the eastern state of Brandenburg on Sunday, the result was already overshadowed by debate within the federal three-party coalition over how — and for how long — the government will survive.
One ought to have the “courage to ignite a new dynamic when the limits of what is possible are reached,” Christian Lindner, the finance minister and leader of the fiscally-conservative Free Democratic Party (FDP), told reporters on Monday. The coalition’s future, he added, would depend on the outcome of an “autumn of decisions” in the next months — major upcoming policy resolutions on key issues ranging from migration to the economy.
While the SPD was able to end a string of election defeats in the Brandenburg vote on Sunday, the two other parties in Scholz’s coalition — the Greens and the FDP — continued their streak of dismal losses. The Greens crashed out of the Brandenburg state parliament, winning just around 4 percent, a drop of nearly 7 percentage points from the last election and below the 5-percent threshold needed to gain parliamentary seats. The FDP won less than 1 percent of the vote.
Those results, followed by poor outcomes in state elections earlier this month and the European election in June, puts the coalition parties — and particularly the FDP — in an existential crisis that is likely to make governing inside the divided coalition even harder. As a federal election looms a year from now, the ruling parties are likely to feel increasing pressure to appeal to their bases rather than seek compromise with one another.
Some FDP politicians are openly questioning whether it would be better to pull the plug on the coalition in a last-ditch effort to revive their parties fortunes — a move that could lead to an early election.
“At this rate, I don’t think this coalition will make it to Christmas,” Wolfgang Kubicki, a senior FDP parliamentarian and vice chairman of his party, told Welt in the aftermath of Sunday’s vote.
Lindner told reporters on Monday that the coalition’s future depends on whether it can move to curb the influx of asylum seekers, stimulate economic growth and reach a budget agreement in the coming months. Major decisions on these matters, he said, needed to happen by Dec. 21, the start of winter.
Lindner did not provide many specifics on those policy points, though he expressed openness to turning back asylum seekers at the border, an approach favored by the opposition, conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Scholz has so far resisted such a move, fearing it would infuriate Germany’s neighbors and clash with EU law.
Eyeing plunging earnings in the country’s important car industry and threats of plant closures at German car giant Volkswagen, Lindner also warned that the EU’s duties on Chinese-made electric vehicles could spark a trade war that will makes things worse for German carmakers. “We cannot afford a trade war with China in the automotive sector,” he said. “We need a pragmatic approach.”
Given the complexity and magnitude of these issues, however, it’s difficult to imagine major policy solutions coming within the next months. That’s particularly the case given the increasing friction inside the coalition.
Omid Nouripour, a leader of the Greens, told reporters on Monday that he had lost faith in the coalition’s ability to work together.
He long believed the coalition would “manage to work out solutions and move the country forward,” he said. “To be honest,” he added, “I no longer believe that.”
Scholz, meanwhile, celebrated the SPD result on Monday from New York, where he was in town for the U.N. General Assembly.
“I am very happy about the election results in Brandenburg,” he said. “The SPD achieved a very good result.”
When a reporter then asked about Lindner’s apparent ultimatum and the trouble inside the coalition, however, Scholz seemed clearly less enthused, and avoided giving a direct answer.
“The government must face up to the tasks that lie ahead,” he said. “We are still living in very difficult times.”
