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BERLIN — Populist parties on the far-right and far-left ends of the political spectrum are expected to surge in regional elections to be held in eastern Germany this Sunday. If the current forecasts are borne out, the result on Sunday will send political shockwaves across Germany and illustrate the degree to which voters in the east of the country are rebelling against mainstream political parties.
Here’s everything you need to know about the coming votes— and what it all means for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s increasingly enervated three-party coalition government.
Where and when are the votes taking place?
Voters are headed to the polls this Sunday in two eastern German states — Saxony and Thuringia — to elect their state parliamentarians. Voters in a third eastern state, Brandenburg, will go to polls on Sept. 22.
What time will the results come in?
First projections for Thuringia and Saxony, based on exit polls, are expected on Sunday evening at 6 p.m. Shortly after, the first projections based on the early vote count will be released. The final results are expected to become clear over the course of the night.
Who is likely to win?
In Thuringia, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party looks set for a first-place finish, now polling at just below 30 percent. That is despite the fact that the party is led by Björn Höcke, considered one of the most extreme politicians in the party and someone who has twice been found guilty by a German court of purposely employing Nazi rhetoric.
In Saxony, polls show the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) holding a slight lead over the AfD, but the race is still considered a toss-up.
Polls also suggest a new populist-left party founded by the leftist icon Sahra Wagenknecht will finish third in both Thuringia and Saxony — a remarkable result for a party founded only months ago — potentially putting the party in a kingmaker role when it comes to forming coalition governments.
Why are the stakes so high?
The rise of radical parties in eastern Germany will be seen as an unmistakable rebuke of Germany’s mainstream parties — and in particular German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s left-leaning, tripartite coalition government.
All three parties in Scholz’s coalition — the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), the fiscally conservative Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Greens — are struggling to meet the 5-percent threshold needed to make it into the state parliaments. Should these parties fail to win a significant number of seats, it will prove a further embarrassment for an already-weak coalition struggling to stay intact.
In a bid to reverse its political fortunes just ahead of the election, Scholz’s government has announced a raft of tougher migration measures — showing how the AfD’s rise on an anti-immigration message has shaken the country’s political establishment.
Because all other parties have vowed not to form coalitions with the AfD, it’s unlikely the party will win real governing power, despite the far-right surge. But the fact that a party that mainstream political leaders warn is extremist, even Nazi, is gaining ground is likely to set alarm bells ringing across the country. The result is also likely to be seen as evidence of how Germany has failed to politically integrate the former East Germany following the fall of the Berlin Wall.
One person who is likely to be celebrating the result on Sunday is Russian President Vladimir Putin. The rise of Russia-friendly parties in Germany’s East gives Putin, a former KGB spy based in Dresden during the Cold War, a foothold in German politics.
What happens after?
Given the splintered political landscape, coalition formation in the aftermath of the elections is expected to be highly complicated.
Sahra Wagenknecht’s alliance and the center-right CDU may be miles apart on many policy issues, but they may be forced to govern together in order to prevent the AfD from taking part in the state governments.
If the AfD manages to win over a third of seats in state parliaments, it would give the party power to block votes requiring a two-thirds majority. That could make passing certain laws and appointing judges extremely difficult.
Does it matter for the next German national election?
The conservative CDU currently has a wide lead in national polls. Barring a big shift, it’s likely then that the party will emerge victorious when Germans vote in their next national election in September of 2025.
But given the weakness of other mainstream parties currently in Germany’s governing coalition and the rise of the far left and far right, it’s unclear which parties the CDU will be able to form a coalition with. On the national level, the AfD is currently polling as the country’s second-biggest force with 18 percent.
Following the state elections in the east, both Wagenknecht and the AfD hope to expand their influence across the country.
Should they be successful, the results in the east may be a harbinger of things to come.
