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More than a million Moldovans will cast ballots on whether to join the EU on Sunday in a referendum that could pave the way to becoming a member of the bloc — or see the Eastern European nation pulled back into Russia’s orbit.
A victory for the pro-Western government would be a blow for Moscow’s influence in the region, but would also increase pressure on Brussels to move ahead with the accession process despite serious practical concerns.
“This is a historic decision for us, maybe the most important one since we gained independence from the Soviet Union,” said Cristina Gherasimov, Moldova’s deputy prime minister and EU integration chief, in an interview with POLITICO.
“For us, EU membership is existential. It’s the only way to consolidate our democracy. There is no plan B — Russia and the future it wants for us is no alternative.”
Moldova’s gravitation toward the West has increased in recent years, with the war in Ukraine raging just across the border. Officials warn that Russian intelligence is actively trying to disrupt the EU membership referendum, as well as a simultaneous election in which President Maia Sandu is seeking a second term.
“We are seeing the classic hybrid toolbox Russia uses to influence elections, but the magnitude is really unprecedented,” Gherasimov said. “We see hybrid attacks on public institutions responsible for critical services like the post office and the airport. We see vote-buying. We see the use of local corrupt proxies and political parties — they’re given cash to destabilize the situation on the ground.”
The country’s police force told POLITICO earlier this month that over $15 million in Russian funds have been funneled into the bank accounts of more than 130,000 Moldovan citizens in the lead-up to the election. Sandu’s pro-EU government faces opposition from a handful of pro-Russian parties, and the EU has imposed sanctions on Ilan Shor, a prominent oligarch accused of working on behalf of the Kremlin.
The bloc has also stepped in to support Moldova by deploying a civilian advisory mission designed to help the fight against disinformation and covert influence.
A draft statement to be issued by EU leaders following talks on Thursday, seen in advance by POLITICO, condemns “Russia’s persistent foreign information manipulation and interference to attempt to undermine democratic elections and the choice of the Moldovan people for a prosperous, stable and peaceful European future.”
A country divided
Moldova’s accession talks with the EU began in June this year, moving forward in the process at the same time as neighboring Ukraine. However, as with Kyiv’s application, the country faces significant hurdles to actually being admitted to the club of 27 countries.
Since the fall of the USSR, a frozen conflict has simmered over the breakaway region of Transnistria, where Russia has stationed troops despite objections from the Moldovan government. The existence of the unrecognized state presents Brussels with a dilemma — with few European leaders relishing a repeat of the decision to admit Cyprus to the bloc while almost half of the island remains occupied by a Turkish-backed separatist government.
Last year, Romanian MEP Siegfried Mureșan, chair of the European Parliament’s delegation to Moldova, warned that “Moldova cannot become a member of the EU with Russian troops on its territory.” According to him, the issue needs to be solved “before membership.”
However, Gherasimov insisted that negotiations were moving ahead despite the dispute. “We have not seen any mentions in official documents to the Transnistria region, which for us is a clear signal that there is not going to be special focus on the region,” she said.
According to Sandu and her ministers, the referendum to enshrine Moldova’s European dream in the constitution will prevent future governments from undermining its Westward trajectory. However, the high-profile vote will also be used to convince Brussels to move ahead with the membership process.
“We hope this rare window of opportunity, where there is interest to talk about enlargement, will continue,” Gherasimov said. “We’re working on a domestic deadline to be ready for accession by 2030 — we want the EU to reciprocate because we need a credible commitment.”
