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The Biden administration has been pouring resources into countering Russian efforts to influence this weekend’s national elections in Moldova, where Moscow is looking to sway the future of a key nation on the border with Ukraine.
Moldova has been besieged with disinformation, cyberattacks and influence campaigns linked to Russia in the months leading up to Sunday’s vote, in which people in the Central European country will choose a president and whether to continue on a path toward EU membership.
In response, the U.S., the EU and NATO have sent advisers and shared threat information and tips on how to counter efforts to drive an outcome favorable to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
U.S. officials and lawmakers say the Moldovan elections serve as a reminder that Russia is actively working to influence votes abroad in ways that can undermine global alliances.
“Russian malign actors target more than just U.S. elections — and have made a concerted effort to shape outcomes in elections of key U.S. partners, using many of the same techniques and tactics,” Senate Intelligence Chair Mark Warner (D-Va.) said.
Moldova is at a crossroads, deciding whether to move into the Western orbit or shift more toward Moscow. But the outcome of the election will not just determine the nation’s future — it also demonstrates how far Russia will go to expand its influence in Europe beyond Ukraine and whether Western nations can stop this effort.
Moldova also is being closely watched by Western allies as a bellwether for how Russia may attempt to interfere in other elections in Europe to sway the outcome of the war in Ukraine.
As in the U.S., the efforts to skew the votes in Moldova have been underway for months and have not let up despite efforts by Moldova’s Western allies to call Moscow to account.
“Russia is working actively to undermine Moldova’s election and its European integration,” John Kirby, White House national security spokesperson, told reporters this week.
Cristina Gherasimov, the deputy prime minister of Moldova and EU integration chief, told POLITICO on Thursday that “we are seeing the classic hybrid toolbox Russia uses to influence elections, but the magnitude is really unprecedented.”
“We see hybrid attacks on public institutions responsible for critical services like the post office and the airport. We see vote-buying,” Gherasimov said. “We see the use of local corrupt proxies and political parties — they’re given cash to destabilize the situation on the ground.”
The U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency is working with the Moldovan government and the private sector to offer support including sharing threat information and countering cyberattacks on critical organizations. The State Department has also been assisting.
Kirby this week accused Moscow of dedicating “millions of dollars” to support preferred candidates in the presidential election, in particular blaming Ilan Shor, a pro-Russian former Moldovan politician, for financially backing efforts to pay Moldovans to vote against full EU membership. POLITICO reported last week that Shor helped launder more than $15 million in Russian funds that were used to pay off around 130,000 Moldovans in September alone to vote against moving forward in the EU.
The country is estimated to have just over 2.4 million residents, meaning that the number of those targeted is around 5 percent of the population. Vassilis Ntousas, head of European operations at the German Marshall Fund’s Alliance for Securing Democracy, described this as a “staggering” number and warned it’s likely there were even more targeted.
“What you see now in Moldova is extraordinary, it’s remarkable,” Ntousas said of Russia’s interference efforts. “The intensity, the extensity, the scale, the diversity of narratives, the amount of proxies, local actors that are willing to be amplifiers of those narratives.”
The Russian Embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for comment on this story. The Kremlin has denied accusations of meddling in the elections in recent days.
In response to the efforts by Russia, the Moldovan government blocked more than a dozen accounts on Telegram linked to Shor, and Meta removed accounts linked to Shor as well. However, this hasn’t stopped the disinformation deluge aimed at Moldovans.
Rennie Westcott, senior intelligence analyst at Blackbird.AI, which tracks disinformation and misinformation efforts online, said that Russia has been using Telegram channels to spread “pro-Russian narratives,” efforts that have ramped up this week ahead of the Oct. 20 elections.
“There’s been an evolution to be more closely aligned with more pro-Russian narratives, and it’s a mask-off situation, the veil is dropped, there is clear-cut support for Russia,” Westcott said of the most recent developments linked to Russia on those Telegram channels.
The U.S. and EU have stepped up their support efforts in recent days. Kirby said the administration has offered cyber and technical assistance to Moldovan government agencies and private sector groups around the election. Shawn Powers, a spokesperson for the State Department’s Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy, said the agency “is in daily contact” with the Moldovan government on the issue.
In addition, the European Council General Secretariat late Thursday night issued a document rebuking Russia for its efforts to interfere in Moldova, formally condemning “Russia’s persistent foreign information manipulation and interference to attempt to undermine democratic elections.”
NATO is also involved in supporting Moldova, in particular through the bloc’s Defence and Related Security Capacity Building Initiative, which for Moldova particularly focuses on countering disinformation aimed at the nation’s civilians, according to NATO spokesperson Peggy Beauplet.
But even if Moldova’s partners succeed in protecting this weekend’s vote, Moscow could have another chance to tip the scales next year, when Moldova holds parliamentary elections.
“You have a series of electoral milestones that offer the opportunity to Russia, its affiliates, its proxies, not only to launch these offenses, but also test what works, refine the effectiveness of these attacks,” Ntousas said. “If it doesn’t work this time … try again, and hopefully in their point of view with better outcomes.”
Gabriel Gavin contributed to this report.
