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Keir Starmer wasted no time in congratulating Donald Trump on his “historic” victory in the US presidential election.
The former and soon-to-be-again president had not even reached the magic number of 270 electoral college votes before the Downing Street statement arrived.
“As the closest of allies, we stand shoulder to shoulder in defence of our shared values of freedom, democracy and enterprise,” the prime minister declared.
Nevertheless, Starmer and his aides will be well aware of the political jeopardy posed by another Trump presidency.
Here, HuffPost UK looks at the potential problems for the UK government emanating the maverick Republican’s return to the White House.
Economy
For a government which has made growing the economy its number one mission, Trump’s re-election could have serious repercussions.
Goldman Sachs immediately downgraded their forecast for UK economic growth for 2025 from 1.6% to 1.4% on the back of the US result, pointing to Trump’s vow to impose tariffs on goods entering America from abroad.
Such a move would also be extremely damaging for high-value British exports like Scotch whisky.
A spokesperson for the Scotch Whisky Association said: “As prime minister Keir Starmer has said, the UK and US stand shoulder to shoulder and are partners in enterprise.
“To deepen this partnership, the US and UK administrations should agree to maintain the zero-tariff trade of whiskies across the Atlantic.”
While the Biden administration has ruled out as US-UK comprehensive trade agreement, Trump has spoken in the past of his desire to get one done – although he conspicuously failed to do so the last time he was in office.
The price Trump would try to extract in return for a deal – such as allowing hormone-pumped American beef onto British supermarket shelves – may turn out being too high for Starmer to pay.
The PM’s official spokesman would only say: “We already enjoy a thriving economic relationship with the US. There are millions of jobs supported by this relationship, which is worth $1 trillion, and clearly we will be seeking to build on that.”
That may well prove to be easier said than done.
Defence
Trump has made no secret in the past of his desire for America’s Nato allies to spend more money on defence.
On this, at least, it appears that the new US administration could well make common cause with Starmer’s government.
The PM’s spokesman said: “The prime minister agrees that other Nato member states must pull their weight when it comes to defence spending.”
Labour said during the election campaign that they would return defence spending to 2.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) when the financial circumstances allow.
But defence analyst Francis Tusa warned that may not be enough to satisfy Trump, who could call on Nato members to spend 3% of GDP on defence.
Writing on X, he said: “Equivocation/hesitation won’t be an option. If the UK is to retain any influence in Europe and Nato, holding back over defence is an epic fail – no-one will accept the UK holding back.
“This is likely a complete nightmare for Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves. They have their plans that they wish to pursue, but they face the likelihood that these plans will have to take 2nd/3rd place to defence/foreign relations, and that means that the budget follows.”
Ukraine
Unlike the UK, Trump’s commitment to Ukraine in its war with Russia is less than certain.
He has spoken in the past of being able to end the conflict on day one of his presidency, but that would entail Kyiv having to give up on territory seized by Russia.
Asked whether America’s future stance on Ukraine would affect the UK’s, the PM’s spokesman said: “We have been clear that the UK’s support for UK is, and always will remain, iron-clad.”
However, any weakening of America’s support for Ukraine would have severe implications for its ability to continue defending itself – and pose serious questions as to whether the UK and Kyiv’s other allies remain willing and able to provide it with the military and financial support it needs.
Climate
Trump has made no secret of his disdain for climate change, describing it as a “hoax” and “one of the great scams of all time”.
During his first term in office, he withdrew the US from the Paris climate agreement, while he has also vowed to “drill baby drill” for more oil.
It’s fair to say, therefore, that his views on our warming planet are pretty far apart from those of Starmer and Ed Miliband, the energy and net zero secretary.
Downing Street today tried to put a brave face on things, pointing out that Starmer will travel to the Cop 29 summit in Baku next week to make clear that the UK is ready to assume “global leadership” on tackling climate change.
But without the support of America over the next four years, that fight will become even harder to win.
The Trumps Don’t Like Labour
Despite both Starmer and foreign secretary David Lammy’s attempts to curry favour with the president-elect – the pair held a two-hour dinner with Trump in New York in September – there remains a lot of bad blood.
During the campaign, Donald Trump Jr succinctly explained his family’s views on the UK government when he told ITV: “It’s absolute lunacy what I see going on in the UK right now.
“They’re jailing people for misgendering someone. Honestly it’s disgusting and they should be ashamed of themselves.”
The Trump campaign also accused Labour of “interference” in the election because party activists crossed the Atlantic to campaign for Kamala Harris.
In his statement welcoming Trump’s victory, Starmer said the “UK-US special relationship will continue to prosper on both sides of the Atlantic for years to come”.
But the next four could well turn out to be very rocky indeed.
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