World Update: Trump’s global shockwaves

The world was definitely watching as the US went to the polls on Tuesday. Many people turned to YouTube to view the latest figures as states turned in their votes, where an apparent 84 million hours of presidential election day news were watched from all around the globe.

I had a brief nap while the votes were being counted, and woke up to a stream of WhatsApp chats from friends in India who had been awake for hours and knew the probable result before I did.

The reason that they were tuned in, like millions of others, was because of the massive international consequences that a US election has on the whole world. From economic decisions to introduce tariffs on imports, or exports, to decisions on military and development aid spending, the ramifications rattle around the planet.

There is no other election that so many people from so many other countries care about for the reason that the decision is likely to affect their lives.

Trump has laid out plans to create a settlement of the war in Ukraine within 24 hours and, as Stefan Wolff explains in his detailed study of the global implications of a Trump election, this could very well mean forcing Ukraine to give up part of its nation, currently under occupation by Russian forces. This would likely include Crimea and the Donetsk region, which has been part of Ukraine’s industrial heartland, and is now largely occupied by Russian forces. Wolff believes that any deal is likely to include a Russian demand that Ukraine is never able to join Nato.

Nato is likely to come under pressure from Trump for other reasons. During his last presidency he was highly critical of other members of the military alliance for not paying more towards defence, and more towards keeping Nato running. As the University of Surrey’s Amelia Hadfield set out hours after the election result, Trump has been making the same criticism of Nato during the election campaign, as part of his America First foreign policy. He will expect European nations to pay more towards the security and defence of their continent.

Hadfield, who was writing as she flew on a work trip to the Baltics, believes that there are some in that region who believe that Trump’s demands for Europe to spend more on defence are reasonable. Europe should gradually assume more responsibility for its defence, says Indrek Kannik, director of the Tallinn-based International Center for Defense and Security.

Perhaps it’s not surprising that the European countries with borders closest to Russia – Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland are four of the five countries with the highest per capita defence spending in Europe. They remain worried that the fallout of any US negotiated peace deal with Russia and Ukraine will create an ascendant Russia with more plans for expansion.

Problems for China

China remains worried about the economic consequences of a stormy relationship with the US, and what could happen next. During Trump’s first term, the US president began a trade war with Beijing, imposing high tariffs on Chinese goods of up to 25%, and outlining security concerns about Chinese firms controlling US interests, as Nottingham University’s Chee Meng Tan sets out.

This time Trump has threatened to do more, raising tariffs even higher. This will set back any economic recovery that Beijing is trying to build right now, at a time when it is struggling with high youth unemployment and slumping property prices. Also caught in the middle of a geopolitical tussle is the self-governing island of aTaiwaan, which China claims as part of its territory, and the US has historical seen as a partner. There are some indications that Trump may not be so committed as previous presidents to stand up for Taipei.

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Trump also laid out his plans for a mass deportation of “illegal migrants” during his campaign, as Essex University’s Natasha Lindstaedt reported in her article the day after the election. Trump has said this will be the biggest deportation effort in US history and will see more than 11 million undocumented migrants rounded up. Her analysis is that this will be incredibly difficult to achieve.

Nando Sigona from the University of Birmingham agrees and he lays out the details of what Trump’s policy might involve, as well as the emotional strain it would create on many families. He also points out that the US economy, particularly agriculture and construction, relies heavily on undocumented migrants as so there could be financial consequences that could make the policy unpopular. It will also need cooperation from migrants’ home countries and even transit nations to make it work.

Pollsters might have had a few sleepless nights recently, worrying that their predictions might be blown out of the ballpark by the actual election results. Now the votes have (mostly) been counted, several trends in voting patterns have started to emerge. University College Cork’s Clodagh Harrington and Alex Waddan from Leicester University dug into the numbers to find out, and discovered the exit polls showed that despite predictions Harris didn’t poll particularly highly among women, with 53% voting for her, this was lower than Biden’s 57% in 2020. Harris won a higher percentage of white voters opting for the Democratic ticket than in 2016, but about the same as 2020, at 41%.

Trump did better than some expected among young people and Latino voters. Trump’s numbers among Latino voters rose from 28% in 2016 to 32% in 2020 and then to 46% in 2024. Trump gained 42% of the 18-24 year olds, up from 36% in the 2020 election.

Europeans might need to recognise that the US is going to play a more hands-off role, says Renaud Foucart of Lancaster University. The America First policy means the US is more likely to go it alone under Trump. The rest of the world is on its own now, he believes, and better learn how to become more self-sufficient.

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