Could Nigel Farage Really Become The Next Prime Minister?

Reform UK chairman Zia Yusuf could never be accused of lacking ambition.

“Nigel Farage will be the next prime minister, and will return Britain to greatness,” he told HuffPost UK this week.

He is far from the only one at Westminster who is now considering the prospect of the former Ukip and Brexit Party leader entering 10 Downing Street.

Given Reform currently only have five MPs, it seems like a ridiculously far-fetched idea.

But speak to senior Tory and Labour figures and it is not difficult to detect a note of anxiety in their voices when the discussion inevitably turns to Farage.

“Reform are a threat to both us and Labour,” said one former Tory cabinet minister.

“We’ve got caught in a cycle where the public perceived that we were rubbish, then Labour have come in and been rubbish as well, so a lot of voters just want to blow the whole thing up.

“There is no doubt that in the short term, Reform are in a strong position. If there’s a by-election outwith Lib Dem areas they would probably win it, but that doesn’t mean they’ll win the general election.”

Farage’s party received 4.1 million votes at the last election, around 600,000 more than the Lib Dems.

However, the vagaries of the first past the post system meant the Liberals were rewarded with 72 MPs to Reform’s five.

“It’s very difficult for an insurgent party to go from a handful of seats into government, said Chris Hopkins, political research director at pollsters Savanta. 

“In particular for Reform UK, their support base is currently quite evenly spread across the country, meaning they will struggle to break through in anywhere near enough seats to put Nigel Farage into No.10 without a significant increase in their vote share.

“That being said, if any current political leader can bend our electoral system to their will, I’d wager it would be Nigel Farage. I think at the very least it’s likely Farage and Reform UK will play an even more significant role in British politics over the next five years than they have in the last decade.”

A council by-election result on Thursday neatly summed up the current state of play.

In the Blackbrook ward on St Helens Council, from a standing start, Reform UK took the seat from Labour with 41% of the vote. Labour’s share fell by 18%, while the Tories’ was down by 10% on the last time it was contested.

A poll last week also put Reform above Labour for the first time, demonstrating once again that it isn’t just the Conservatives who need to worry about the threat from the party.

One senior Labour insider said: “We have definitely got to take it seriously. The problem is, for many voters, they just associate us with getting rid of winter fuel payments and accepting a load of free suits and glasses.

“We’re still not telling a story about what a Labour government is all about. It’s too technocratic, we need to start speaking the language of ordinary people.”

“All Westminster will be talking about in 2025 is how Farage does in the local elections in May and in any by-elections that might take place,” the source went on.

“It’s going to be the Farage show for the next 12 months, but Labour need to make sure that he isn’t the only show in town.”

Those electoral performances will be boosted by the efforts of Nick Candy, the billionaire property magnate and husband of Holly Valance who was unveiled this week as Reform UK’s new treasurer.

“I will raise more money for Reform than an political party in the UK has ever raised – Nigel Farage is going to be PM,” Candy declared.

Experienced Labour figures admit the threat from Reform is real, and say the party must approach it head-on.

Former frontbencher Jon Ashworth, who lost his seat at the general election and is now chief executive of the Labour Together think-tank, said: “It’s incumbent on all of us to put them under scrutiny.

“What is his policy on the economy? They’re usually in favour of the super rich. How’s that going to improve the cost of living for people in Bolsover?

“What’s his policy on the NHS? In the past he’s spoken about privatising the health service. That’s not going to go down well with the public.”

Tory leader Kemi Badenoch’s approach is markedly different, however.

In an interview with The Spectator, she said: “We just have to focus on what the Conservatives are about now and not worry about Reform in the immediate term.

“Of course they are a competitor, but right now I am the leader of the Conservative party and that is my focus.”

One Tory MP dismissed Reform completely, describing the party as “a protest vote”.

“People wanted to send the Tories a message,” they said. “Reform have no policies.”

Writing in the New Statesman, former Tory cabinet minister David Gauke also played down the prospects of a Farage premiership.

“There is an opportunity for an insurgent populist party to emerge as a proper parliamentary force at the next election, further fracturing our political system,” he said.

“This in itself is a significant development. But are we on the cusp of a Farage-led government? No, that still appears to be a distant prospect.”

Nevertheless, Zia Yusuf remains a man on a mission.

He told HuffPost UK: “History is being made as the stranglehold the two old parties have had on British politics is breaking for the first time in a century.

“Reform is rapidly professionalising, our membership growth is ballistic and we are preparing to fight elections across the country.”

With the next election potentially still four-and-a-half years away, much can change to alter the current British political landscape.

It is not so long ago that Donald Trump’s political career appeared over and Boris Johnson seemed set for a decade in power.

But it was significant that Farage was recently installed as the favourite with some bookies to be the next PM.

The last 10 years of UK politics have seen some previously-unthinkable changes become reality. It would be unwise to bet against the next decade being equally dramatic.