Last month, tech outlet The Information reported that OpenAI and its competitors are switching strategies as the rate of improvement of AI has dramatically slowed. For a long time, you’ve been able to make AI systems dramatically better across a wide range of tasks just by making them bigger. Why does this matter? All kinds […]
Sam Altman speaks onstage during the New York Times Dealbook Summit 2024 at Jazz at Lincoln Center on December 4, 2024, in New York City.
Last month, tech outlet The Information reported that OpenAI and its competitors are switching strategies as the rate of improvement of AI has dramatically slowed. For a long time, you’ve been able to make AI systems dramatically better across a wide range of tasks just by making them bigger.
Why does this matter? All kinds of problems that were once believed to require elaborate custom solutions turned out to crumble in the face of greater scale. We have applications like OpenAI’s ChatGPT because of scaling laws. If that’s no longer true, then the future of AI development will look a lot different — and potentially a lot less optimistic — than the past.
This reporting was greeted with a chorus of “I told you so” from AI skeptics. (I’m not inclined to give them too much credit, as many of them have definitely predicted 20 of the last two AI slowdowns.) But getting a sense of how AI researchers felt about it was harder.
Over the last few weeks, I pressed some AI researchers in academia and industry on whether they thought The Information’s story captured a real dynamic — and if so, how it would change the future of AI going forward.
The overall answer I’ve heard is that we should probably expect the impact of AI to grow, not shrink, over the next few years, regardless of whether naive scaling is indeed slowing down. That’s effectively because when it comes to AI, we already have an enormous amount of impact that’s just waiting to happen.
There are powerful systems already available that can do a lot of commercially valuable work — it’s just that no one has quite figured out many of the commercially valuable applications, let alone put them into practice.
It took decades from the internet’s birth to transform the world, and it might take decades for AI also (Maybe — many people on the cutting edge of this world are still very insistent that in only a few years, our world will be unrecognizable.)
The bottom line: If greater scale no longer gives us greater returns, that’s a big deal with serious implications for how the AI revolution will play out, but it’s not a reason to declare the AI revolution canceled.
Most people kind of hate AI while kind of underrating it
Here’s something those in the artificial intelligence bubble may not realize: AI is not a popular new technology, and it’s actually getting less popular over time.
I’ve written that I think it poses extreme risks, and many Americans agree with me, but also many people dislike it in a much more mundane way.
Its most visible consequences so far are unpleasant and frustrating. Google Image results are full of awful low-quality AI slop instead of the cool and varied artwork that used to appear. Teachers can’t really assign take-home essays anymore because AI-written work is so widespread, while for their part many students have been wrongly accused of using AI when they didn’t because AI detection tools are actually terrible. Artists and writers are furious about the use of our work to train models that will then take our jobs.
A lot of this frustration is very justified. But I think there’s an unfortunate tendency to conflate “AI sucks” with the idea that “AI isn’t that useful.” The question “what is AI good for?” is a popular one, even though in fact the answer is that AI is already good for an enormous number of things and new applications are being developed at a breathtaking pace.
I think at times our frustration with AI slop and with the carelessness with which AI has been developed and deployed can spill over into underrating AI as a whole. A lot of people eagerly pounced on the news that OpenAI and competitors are struggling to make the next generation of models even better, and took it as proof that the AI wave was all hype and will be followed by bitter disappointment.
Two weeks later, OpenAI announced the latest generation models, and sure enough they’re better than ever. (One caveat: It’s hard to say how much of the improvement comes from scale as opposed to from the many other possible sources of improvement, so this doesn’t mean that the initial Information reporting was wrong).
Don’t let AI fool you
It’s fine to dislike AI. But it’s a bad idea to underrate it. And it’s a bad habit to take each hiccup, setback, limitation, or engineering challenge as reason to expect the AI transformation of our world to come to a halt — or even to slow down.
Instead, I think the better way to think about this is that, at this point, an AI-driven transformation of our world is definitely going to happen. Even if larger models than those which exist today are never trained, existing technology is sufficient for large-scale disruptive changes. And reasonably often when a limitation crops up, it’s prematurely declared totally intractable … and then solved in short order.
After a few go-rounds of this particular dynamic, I’d like to see if we can cut it off at the pass. Yes, various technological challenges and limitations are real, and they prompt strategic changes at the large AI labs and shape how progress will play out in the future. No, the latest such challenge doesn’t mean that the AI wave is over.
AI is here to stay, and the response to it has to mature past wishing it would go away.
Fan-favourite Nollywood star actress — Shaffy Bello sent the airwaves raving when she elegantly walked the runway in daring heels and glamorous braids on Lush…
<div><img width="300" height="168" src="https://www.naijanews.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/House-of-Reps3-300x168.jpg" class="attachment-medium size-medium wp-post-image" alt="10th National Assembly: Plot Thickens As Opposition Reps-elect Meet Over Speakership" decoding="async" style="margin-bottom: 15px;" srcset="https://www.naijanews.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/House-of-Reps3-300x168.jpg 300w, https://www.naijanews.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/House-of-Reps3-150x84.jpg 150w, https://www.naijanews.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/House-of-Reps3.jpg 750w" sizes="(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /></div>
<p>May 29 is almost here for the swearing-in of president-elect Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) but there are so many uncertainties in terms of the zoning formula that the party will decide to adopt for the 10th national assembly. This has sparked the speculation that there are cracks in the APC […]</p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.naijanews.com/2023/04/22/10th-nass-cracks-in-apc-threatening-to-reproduce-2015-political-maneuver/">10th NASS: Cracks In APC Threatening To Reproduce 2015 Political Maneuver</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.naijanews.com">Naija News</a>.</p>
<img src="https://www.mtlblog.com/media-library/machu-picchu-peru-right-nassau-bahamas-illustrative.jpg?id=54522858&width=1245&height=700&coordinates=2%2C0%2C3%2C0"/><br/><br/><p>With winter creeping in and dreams of sandy beaches or tropical escapes filling our minds, now's the perfect time to double-check the latest <a href="https://www.mtlblog.com/tag/canada-travel-advisory" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Canada travel advisories</a> that could impact your upcoming travel plans. </p><p>The Government of <a href="https://www.mtlblog.com/little-known-passport-rule-could-affect-winter-travel-plans" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Canada has issued important travel warnings</a> for some of the most popular sunny destinations this month, and staying informed could save you a lot of hassle — or even a trip to your travel insurance fine print.</p><p>Whether you're taking a quick trip to <a href="https://www.mtlblog.com/canada-travel-advisory-mexico-october-2024" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mexico</a> or <a href="https://www.mtlblog.com/canada-travel-advisory-cuba-earthquakes-power-outages-november-2024" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cuba</a>, or flying across the ocean to Spain or Thailand, these advisories cover everything from safety concerns to weather impacts. From supply shortages to surges in violent crime, keeping an eye on potential risks at your chosen spot is just smart planning.</p><p>So, before you lock in those flights, here's a look at the travel warnings issued in November 2024 that Canadians need to know about some of the hottest winter escapes this season.</p><h3>Jamaica</h3><br/><p>Last Updated: November 15, 2024</p><p>Risk Level: Exercise a high degree of caution in Jamaica due to the high level of violent crime.</p><p>Details: Jamaica's stunning beaches and vibrant culture come with some risks, as violent crime remains a significant concern even in popular tourist areas like Kingston and Montego Bay. Armed robberies and other violent incidents, often tied to gangs and the availability of firearms, can occur anywhere, including areas frequented by tourists. Some neighbourhoods, including Trench Town and Tivoli Gardens in Kingston, are considered high-risk for gang-related violence. Visitors are urged to avoid isolated areas, especially at night, and to stay within resort areas whenever possible.</p><p>Stick to well-lit, populated areas, avoid walking alone and be cautious with valuables. If confronted by robbers, authorities recommend not resisting. Always stay alert and follow the advice of local authorities.</p><p><a href="https://travel.gc.ca/destinations/jamaica" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jamaica Travel Advisory</a></p><h3>Bahamas</h3><br/><p>Last Updated: November 14, 2024</p><p>Risk Level: Exercise a high degree of caution in the Bahamas due to high rates of crime, especially in Freeport and Nassau.</p><p>Details: While the Bahamas offers picture-perfect beaches, visitors should be aware of the high rates of crime, particularly in Nassau and Freeport. Violent incidents such as armed robberies, home invasions and sexual assaults have been reported, even in popular resort areas and cruise ship terminals. Women should exercise extra caution, as incidents of sexual assault, including cases involving spiked drinks or food, are on the rise.</p><p>The government suggests travellers stick to tourist areas, avoid walking alone at night and keep their valuables out of sight. Be cautious when using ATMs and monitor your credit card transactions for fraud. For safety, avoid excessive alcohol consumption and decline offers of rides from strangers or unlicensed taxi drivers. Always remain vigilant and aware of your surroundings.</p><p><a href="https://travel.gc.ca/destinations/bahamas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bahamas Travel Advisory</a><br/></p><h3>Spain</h3><br><p>Last Updated: November 14, 2024</p><p>Risk Level: Exercise a high degree of caution in Spain due to the threat of terrorism.</p><p>Details: Spain remains a popular destination for travellers, but the Canadian government advises caution due to the threat of terrorism and petty crime, particularly in major cities like Madrid and Barcelona. Terrorists have previously targeted public areas and transportation hubs, and the current threat level is rated as "high." Visitors are encouraged to stay alert, especially during holidays and large public events.</p><p>Petty crime, like pickpocketing and purse snatching, is common in tourist hotspots, including Las Ramblas in Barcelona and the Puerta del Sol area in Madrid. Thieves often work in groups, using distractions to steal belongings. Violent crime is rare but can occur, particularly in vacation rentals or coastal areas.</p><p>Flooding and landslides have also affected areas like Valencia and Andalusia due to heavy rains this week. Travellers should confirm local conditions and stay informed about weather alerts.</p><p><a href="https://travel.gc.ca/destinations/spain" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Spain Travel Advisory</a></p><h3>Brazil</h3><br/><p>Last Updated: November 14, 2024</p><p>Risk Level: Exercise a high degree of caution due to high crime rates and gang-related violence in urban areas. Avoid non-essential travel to specific border regions.</p><p>Details: Brazil's breathtaking landscapes and vast beaches come with notable risks, especially in major cities like Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo and Salvador, where crime rates are high. Tourists may encounter theft, armed robbery and carjacking, with petty crimes such as pickpocketing particularly prevalent near beaches, markets and public transit hubs. Drive-by robberies by armed thieves on motorcycles are common in São Paulo and Porto Alegre. Border areas with countries like Colombia, Venezuela, and Peru are particularly dangerous due to narcotics trafficking and arms smuggling, and travel there should be avoided.</p><p>Avoid isolated areas, walking alone at night, and displaying valuables such as phones or jewelry. In Rio, incidents involving spiked drinks have been reported, often leading to theft or assault. Express kidnappings, where victims are forced to withdraw funds, remain a concern.</p><p><a href="https://travel.gc.ca/destinations/brazil" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Brazil Travel Advisory</a></p><h3>Costa Rica</h3><br/><p>Last Updated: November 13, 2024</p><p>Risk Level: Exercise a high degree of caution in Costa Rica due to crime.</p><p>Details: Costa Rica's natural beauty attracts countless visitors, but petty and violent crime are common concerns. Pickpocketing, purse snatching and thefts from cars frequently occur, especially in tourist hotspots like Manuel Antonio National Park and Montezuma on the Pacific coast, as well as Puerto Limón and Puerto Viejo on the Caribbean side. Thieves often work in teams, using distractions to steal belongings. Passport theft is especially prevalent during peak tourist seasons.</p><p>Violent crime, including armed robberies and assaults, is less common but can happen, particularly in provinces like San José, Limón, and Puntarenas. If threatened, authorities recommend handing over valuables without resistance.</p><p>Recent heavy rainfall has also led to flooding, landslides and infrastructure damage, particularly in Guanacaste and the Pacific region. National parks may close on short notice, and water service disruptions are reported in areas like Escazú and Santa Ana.<span></span></p><p>Costa Rica Travel Advisory</p><h3>Mexico</h3><br/><p>MexicoLast Updated: November 8, 2024</p><p>Risk Level: Exercise a high degree of caution due to high levels of criminal activity and kidnapping.</p><p>Details: The Canadian government advises <a href="https://www.mtlblog.com/canada-travel-advisory-mexico-october-2024" target="_blank" rel="noopener">caution when visiting Mexico</a>, where high levels of crime and kidnappings, including express kidnappings, are reported. Tourists should avoid non-essential travel to high-risk states like Guerrero, Michoacán, and Tamaulipas due to organized crime and violence. Petty crime, such as pickpocketing and theft, is common in crowded areas, while violent incidents have occurred even in resorts and tourist hotspots.</p><p>Stick to secure areas, avoid travelling at night, and use reputable transportation services. Keep valuables secure, and don’t resist if confronted by criminals.</p><p><a href="https://travel.gc.ca/destinations/mexico" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mexico Travel Advisory</a></p><h3>Cuba</h3><br/><p>Last Updated: November 8, 2024</p><p>Risk Level: Exercise a high degree of caution due to shortages of basic necessities, including food, medicine, and fuel.<br/></p><p>Details: <a href="https://www.mtlblog.com/canada-travel-advisory-cuba-earthquakes-power-outages-november-2024" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Travellers to Cuba</a> should be prepared for widespread shortages of essentials like food, medication, and fuel. Power outages are frequent, especially outside Havana, and hotels may struggle to maintain services during prolonged outages. Transportation disruptions are common due to fuel shortages, and long lines at gas stations can lead to altercations. Bring necessary items like toiletries, medication, and emergency supplies, and monitor local conditions closely.</p><p>Tourists are also advised to remain cautious of petty crime, such as pickpocketing and theft from accommodations or vehicles. Violent crime is less frequent but can occur during burglaries or robberies. In addition, recent hurricanes, including Rafael and Oscar, have caused significant damage in western Cuba and Guantanamo province, where non-essential travel should be avoided.</p><p><a href="https://travel.gc.ca/destinations/cuba" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cuba Travel Advisory</a></p><h3>Thailand</h3><br><p>Last Updated: November 8, 2024</p><p>Risk Level: Exercise a high degree of caution due to ongoing political tensions and sporadic demonstrations. Avoid all travel to certain southern provinces.</p><p>Details: Thailand is experiencing political instability, with demonstrations in Bangkok and other cities that can disrupt transportation and escalate into violence. In the southern provinces of Narathiwat, Pattani, Songkhla and Yala, separatist insurgents have carried out violent attacks, making these areas unsafe for travel.</p><p>Petty crime, such as pickpocketing and theft, is common in crowded tourist areas, on buses, and during events like full moon parties. Visitors should secure belongings, especially passports, and avoid walking alone at night. Demonstration hotspots in Bangkok include Victory Monument and Ratchaprasong Intersection, where heightened security measures may be in effect.</p><p><a href="https://travel.gc.ca/destinations/thailand" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Thailand Travel Advisory</a></p><h3>Peru</h3><br/><p>Last Updated: November 4, 2024</p><p>Risk Level: Exercise a high degree of caution due to high levels of crime, social conflicts, and strikes.</p><p>Details: Travellers to Peru should be aware of frequent demonstrations, strikes, and high crime rates across the country. Strikes can disrupt travel to popular sites like Machu Picchu and may lead to border closures with Bolivia. States of emergency, which are currently in effect in parts of Lima, Callao and other regions, result in heightened police and military presence. Avoid involvement in demonstrations, as participation by foreigners is prohibited and could result in detention.</p><p>Certain areas, including the Valley of the Apurímac, Ene, and Mantaro Rivers (VRAEM), face domestic terrorism and drug trafficking threats. Avoid non-essential travel near the borders with Colombia and Ecuador due to safety risks such as landmines and criminal activity.</p><p><a href="https://travel.gc.ca/destinations/peru" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Peru Travel Advisory</a></p><h3>Colombia</h3><br/><p>Last Updated: November 4, 2024</p><p>Risk Level: Exercise a high degree of caution due to high levels of crime. Avoid all travel to certain border regions.</p><p>Details: The Canadian government warns of high crime rates and a risk of kidnappings in Colombia. Armed groups operate in areas like Arauca, Cauca, and near the borders with Venezuela, Ecuador and Panama. These regions are unsafe due to violent crime and illegal activities, and non-essential travel should be avoided.</p><p>In cities like Bogotá, Medellín and Cartagena, crimes like pickpocketing, express kidnappings and scopolamine druggings are reported. Use caution with dating apps, as criminals often use them to target tourists. Demonstrations are common and can turn violent, disrupting transportation and services.</p><p>Stick to reputable accommodations, avoid isolated areas, and remain vigilant. Avoid hailing taxis on the street, and never leave food or drinks unattended.</p><p><a href="https://travel.gc.ca/destinations/colombia" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Colombia Travel Advisory</a></p><h3>Dominican Republic</h3><br/><p>Last Updated: November 4, 2024</p><p>Risk Level: Exercise a high degree of caution due to crime.</p><p>Details: Tourists visiting the Dominican Republic should be mindful of opportunistic crimes, including pickpocketing, bag-snatching and theft at resorts, airports and public transportation. Drive-by robberies, where thieves grab belongings from pedestrians or reach into cars, are common. Violent crime, though less frequent, can occur, particularly at night in major cities like Santo Domingo. </p><p>Travellers should only use authorized taxis, secure valuables and avoid walking alone after dark. Credit card fraud and scams, including impersonation by rogue police officers and lawyers, have been reported. Be cautious with food and drinks, as spiking incidents have occurred.</p><p><a href="https://travel.gc.ca/destinations/dominican-republic" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dominican Republic Travel Advisory</a></p></br></br><p>Stay safe in the sun, Montreal!</p><p><em>Before you get going, check out our <a href="https://www.mtlblog.com/responsible-travel-guidelines" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Responsible Travel Guide</a> so you can be informed, be safe, be smart, and most of all, be respectful on your trip.</em></p><p><em>AI tools may have been used to support the creation or distribution of this content; however, it has been carefully edited and fact-checked by a member of MTL Blog's Editorial team. For more information on our use of AI, please visit our <a href="https://www.mtlblog.com/editorial-standards" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Editorial Standards page</a>.</em></p>
