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BRUSSELS — The European Commission’s latest move to impose tariffs on Russian fertilizers was meant to be a triple win: Choke a revenue stream for Moscow’s war machine, help struggling European manufacturers, and avoid price hikes that could further enrage European Union farmers already on the brink of open revolt.
Instead, it’s looking more like a triple miss.
European fertilizer makers have warned for months that with natural gas exports to Europe curtailed, Moscow is turning its cheap gas into cheap fertilizer and shipping it to the EU. That ploy has allowed Russia to keep a valuable cash flow going despite Western sanctions designed to starve the Kremlin’s war economy.
Now, the Commission is finally taking action by proposing to impose tariffs on Russian, and Belarusian, fertilizers.
But the carefully choreographed plan — featuring years-long transition periods and cautious phase-ins — may end up satisfying no one. It risks failing to meaningfully dent Russia’s revenue stream while leaving European fertilizer producers high and dry; meanwhile, farmers, who rely on cheap Russian product to keep their costs down, say they can’t afford the extra costs.
Copa and Cogeca, the EU’s main farm lobby, warned the new tariffs could drive up costs next season, putting additional pressure on an already struggling sector. The group argues the Commission’s plan lacks guarantees that domestic fertilizer production will ramp up fast enough to offset the shortfall.
The farm lobby has urged Brussels to mitigate the impact by scrapping existing duties on fertilizer imports from non-Russian sources, warning that without such measures, EU farmers could face a “catastrophic” financial hit.
Brussels insists the tariffs, set to climb from around €40 per metric ton initially to as high as €430 after three years, will weaken Russia’s war economy while protecting the EU’s “strategic autonomy.”
But critics argue they come too late and are too diluted to spur real change. Even with the tariffs in place, Russian fertilizers can continue flowing freely into the EU until at least 2026.
All bark, no bite?
EU farmers have already taken to the streets over rising costs and tough new green rules. Another spike in fertilizer prices could spark fresh rounds of protests — think tractors blocking roads and paralyzing capitals. That’s a political nightmare Brussels wants to avoid.
At the same time, the slow rollout frustrates European fertilizer producers, who say Moscow is being given more time to keep on flooding the market. Last year, the EU imported 6.17 million metric tons of Russian fertilizer worth €2.12 billion — the highest volume since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, according to Eurostat and customs data.
For Europe’s fertilizer makers, the problem isn’t just Russian imports — it’s that Brussels took so long to act.
Tiffanie Stephani, vice president at Norway-based Yara, one of the world’s largest fertilizer producers, says the measures won’t be felt soon enough.
“We appreciate that the Commission is taking measures to reduce imports of Russian fertilizers, but unfortunately, it is too little, too late,” Stephani said.
She warned that by delaying serious action until 2026 or later, the EU risks jeopardizing its own fertilizer industry while allowing Russian products to keep pouring in.
“We urge the European Parliament and the Council of Ministers to increase the ambition level. Anything less would be a significant missed opportunity,” she added.
(This story has been updated with comment from Copa and Cogeca.)
