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In a major escalation in the conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), rebels from the March 23 Movement – or M23 – have seized Goma, the capital city of North Kivu province. At least 773 people have been killed there since the M23 claimed to have won control on January 27, while rebels have also seized several other towns in North Kivu including Sake and Minova.
The rebels are now reportedly advancing towards Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu province. And Corneille Nangaa, who leads a rebel alliance of which M23 is the largest member, has vowed to march on the DRC’s capital in Kinshasa. Located 1,000 miles west of Goma, the capture of Kinshasa is unlikely. But the conflict still looks set to spread deeper into the DRC.
The speed of the M23 advance has taken many by surprise. The rebels captured Goma, a city of 2 million people, within just three days. But the conflict between the DRC and the M23, which takes its name from the 2009 date on which a deal was reached to end a revolt by members of the ethnic Tutsi group, has been grinding on intermittently for years.
Beginning in April 2012, when the M23 was formally created, the conflict has its roots in the same deep ethnic divisions that led to the Rwandan genocide in 1994. Following the genocide, where radical ethnic Hutus killed roughly 800,000 minority Tutsis, many Hutu extremists fled over the border into the DRC and settled in areas including North Kivu.
The M23 seeks to act as a self-defence force for Congolese Tutsis against discrimination both by the DRC and non-state actors. This includes targeting by the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, a Hutu-dominated rebel group that seeks to overthrow the Rwandan government. The group has in the past committed egregious acts of violence against civilians in North Kivu, including mass killings and sexual violence.
The seizure of Goma is crucial for several reasons. First, it means that a sizeable and strategically important border province of the DRC is now in rebel hands. North Kivu is an active volcanic region that is rich in various minerals such as coltan, which is used in electronic equipment and the aerospace industry.
In May 2024 the M23 seized Rubaya, a key mining town that produces 15% of the world’s coltan. Since then, the group has generated considerable income from controlling mineral production and trade. Indeed, the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime labels the agendas of armed groups in the eastern DRC as “profit-driven”.
Second, the capture of Goma has exacerbated inter-state tension between the DRC and Rwanda, raising the prospect of another inter-state war. News of the prized seizure came hours after the DRC’s foreign minister, Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner, accused Rwandan troops of invading Congolese territory.
A UN report from 2013 found that Rwanda not only supports the M23 group, but actively commands its troops. UN experts now estimate that there are up to 4,000 Rwandan troops fighting alongside the M23 in the DRC. Rwanda has denied backing the M23 despite ample evidence to the contrary.
The Congolese government says Rwanda’s involvement is part of a ploy to exploit North Kivu’s vast mineral resources. In a report from December 2024, a panel of UN experts wrote that “fraudulent [mineral] extraction, trade and export to Rwanda” benefited both the M23 “and the Rwandan economy”. According to the Rwandan government’s own figures, the country exports far more gold than it mines.
And third, the escalating conflict will deepen an already grave humanitarian crisis in the region. In March 2024, the UN reported that the number of internally displaced people in the DRC had reached 7.2 million – one of the largest such crises in the world. It is estimated that over 6 million civilians in the east of the DRC are now facing high levels of food insecurity.
What next
The DRC and Rwandan governments have already gone to war on two previous occasions, once in 1996 and then again in 1998 in what turned into a more protracted five-year conflict. The first war was triggered by Rwanda’s invasion of the DRC to target anti-Rwandan rebel groups seeking refuge there. The war soon drew in other states and became known as Africa’s first world war. Since 1996, conflict in the eastern DRC has killed approximately 6 million people.
Yet despite this increased tension, there are hopes that a diplomatic solution can be reached. In the past, warring factions in the eastern DRC have agreed to temporary ceasefires following intensive mediation by international institutions such as the East African Community and the African Union, as well as neighbouring countries like Angola.
However, previous ceasefires have also been violated by both sides. And the stakes are arguably higher this time, with the DRC losing further territory and control over strategic cities to the rebels.
The Congolese government may be reluctant to accept peace conditions until it regains control over lost portions of territory. Indeed, the Congolese president, Félix Tshisekedi, has already snubbed prospective peace talks to establish a ceasefire.
Western powers hold key leverage, and may be able to subdue the M23 insurgency. France has given its backing to the DRC government and has warned of the catastrophic humanitarian consequences should the situation deteriorate further.
The US and other major powers like the UK have also withdrawn state funding for Rwanda in the past over its support for the M23 insurgency. In 2013, for example, cuts to foreign aid forced Rwanda to scale back its support for the rebels, both through reduced military training and supply runs. The UK government has threatened to withdraw funding to Rwanda again following the M23’s capture of Goma.
Belgium, on the other hand, is leading calls for the EU to suspend a controversial minerals deal with Rwanda that boosts the bloc’s access to several elements in exchange for funding to help Kigali develop its mineral extraction infrastructure. When the deal was signed in 2024, Tshisekedi described it as “a provocation in very bad taste”.
In any case, a ceasefire between the DRC and the M23 is not enough. What is needed is a long-term, durable solution that addresses the root causes and fears that are driving the armed conflict.
Dale Pankhurst does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
