Posted by 
If the UK is to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, over one-third of its sheep and cows will have to go, with their fields being replaced by huge new areas of woodland. That’s one conclusion of the latest report by the the Climate Change Committee (CCC), the UK government’s independent advisor on climate change.
The CCC is tasked with outlining how much greenhouse gas the UK can emit if it is to achieve its climate targets – its “carbon budget”. The committee also recommends how the country might reduce its emissions to get within that budget. It sets future budgets every five years or so. This latest report, the seventh carbon budget, looks at emissions in the period 2038 to 2043. It updates the sixth carbon budget produced in 2020.
The UK has almost halved its greenhouse gas emissions since 1990, but that was the easy half. Most dirty industries are long gone, for instance, and coal power plants have been replaced with gas and renewable energy.
Next, the country will be grappling with the most challenging sectors including the focus of my academic research: agriculture and land use. This challenge will be worsened by the impacts of climate change and geopolitical uncertainties that raise doubts about the UK’s food security.
Currently, agriculture makes up about 11% of UK emissions, but this proportion will rise considerably over the next 15 years as other sectors decarbonise further. Cattle and sheep contribute most of these emissions, and the latest carbon budget suggests their numbers will have to be reduced by 22% by 2035 and by over 38% by 2050.
This is principally to release land to plant tens of thousands of hectares of new woodland each year (60,000 hectares a year by 2040) and to grow energy crops (38,000 hectares a year by 2040). It will also mean fewer emissions from the animals themselves and from growing animal feed.
Less meat and dairy
The latest carbon budget suggests that dietary change is key to this anticipated change in farming and land use. While British people won’t need to give up meat entirely, they will need to reduce consumption of meat and dairy products by around 35% by 2050 compared to 2019 levels.
Meat and dairy consumption are already falling, however, and the trend has accelerated since 2020. To meet the budget, the decline would need to continue but more rapidly than the long-term trend.
The CCC is in the business of advising on what government should do to address climate change, not in the business of telling people what to eat. It hopes that food labels with additional information about emissions will help people make better choices for themselves.
Emphasising non-meat options and altering the layout of supermarkets may also help change the “choice environment” and so change consumption practices. Nevertheless, before long, the UK and devolved governments will have to grasp the nettle of diet change, land use and livestock. There have already been successful legal challenges for having inadequate plans in this area.
It helps that diets good for the planet are also good for people’s health. In October 2024, the House of Lords food, diet and obesity committee estimated diet-related ill health and obesity cost £98 billion a year. This is a significant drag on productivity and places acute pressures on the NHS.
Plant-based foods are better for food security
Energy security is currently prompting much thought and action, but food security has not. Dietary change can also help improve the UK’s food security, however, since meat and dairy take up more land per calorie than healthier alternatives. A large-scale shift in diet and land use could render the UK more resilient to future wars, pandemics or anything else that causes shocks to food prices and supplies.
For farmers and landowners there has been increasing interest in greener approaches to production, sometimes called regenerative farming. Some within, or clustered around, farming will protest about the scale of reduction in animal numbers implied by net zero.
Faced with the basic maths, a marked reduction looks unavoidable. The sooner the conversation can shift from whether change is needed to how it might best be fairly and equitably pursued, the better.
This carbon budget brings positive opportunities for nature restoration, diversifying rural economies and improving the appearance and ecology of the countryside. But for net emissions to come down enough, the amount of wooded land will need to increase from 13% to 19% by 2050 – that’s over a million extra hectares, or roughly equivalent to Cornwall, Devon and Dorset combined.
These are very stretching targets, and tree planting over the past few years has fallen far short of the rates required. Because afforestation is such an important factor in the carbon budget, if the UK fails to meet its targets, the dietary changes may need to be even greater.
Heightened international instability threatening UK food security could mean the same. Indeed, some food, health and environmental organisations will point to the seventh carbon budget and say the CCC has not gone far enough.
Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?
Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.
Neil Ward receives funding from UKRI in his role as Co-lead of the AFN (AgriFood4NetZero) Network+.. He is a member of the Labour Party and the National Trust.
